What can we learn from Conchita?

Well it's time to procrastinate once again. You know the Eurovision season stops and I go back into hibernation. Not this year, this year seems bigger, there seems to be more interest and if you're not playing QuizUp then download and we can all start quizzing each other on their new topic of questions: Eurovision (duh?).

So today's blogpost looks at what we can learn from Conchita. Well I say Conchita, I really mean the 2014 season. And I apologise for any readers from outside the UK, as I may predominantly focus on that disappointing 17th place.

IF YOU HAVEN'T GOT MUCH TIME, I'VE DONE A PERFECT SUMMARY DOWN THE BOTTOM. IF NOT, READ ON...

To begin with, 2014 was a good year. In fact, it was a very good year. Like a lot of other fans, I was originally disappointed when I heard all the songs from this year. Then I grew to love Children of the Universe, Freaky Fortune are my new favourite Euroboyband (I guess I could call them that?), Firelight and The Common Linnets have re-excited my love for country music, and dubstep seems to be oozing into the far corners of Europe.
But where was 'Euphoria'? Fairytale? Only Teardrops? Satellite? The recent years have thrown up some true greats, and even when we couldn't decide the winner of the 2011 edition, it is undeniably one of my favourite years as I LOVE so many songs that year. This year we had no clear cut winner, no runaway favourite. Every fan site indicated different answers, you'd go to ESC Stats where they'd be bigging up Sweden...ESC Nation fans voted in their thousands for the UK...the bookmakers were so keen on Armenia taking the victory...WiWiBloggs really buggered it up, rating and voting Ireland so highly...even on this blog (where you can still vote for your favourite, I should definitely remove that poll!) Hungary were the hot favourite. Everywhere you looked though, noone was denying that Conchita was going to do well, even with most predicting a conservative backlash about our famous bearded lady. But that was also the case for Israel, and looked what happened to poor old Mei Finegold. What I'm saying is Sweden and Denmark were so obviously going to win in 2012 and 2013, everyone knew Germany probably had it in the bag in 2010, Norway looked a cert to win in 2009 and when the draw was released, Azerbaijan rocketed to the top of the odds in 2011. This year was different on every level, sure Austria climbed after that magnificent semi final performance, but they weren't the hot favourites even with a couple of hours to go. And they had 11th in the draw. Basically, this year collected all the recent stats since the 2009 rule change and threw them out the window. Are we entering a new era for Eurovision?

(by the way I left out the OGAE poll for a number of reasons; in summary, don't read anything into that bloody poll!)

Onwards and upwards then, what can we expect in 2015?
Well for a start, I'm sure Austria will put on a lavish show for ESC numero 60. It's gonna be special. Jon Ola Sand promised. What about the songs though? Sweden have got quite a reputation to uphold, with 3rd in 2011, 1st in 2012, let's not mention 2013, and 3rd this year. Without doubt Melodifestivalen has turned up a notch since that non-qualification incident in 2010 and so naturally, the Swedes will produce someone popular once more. Fingers crossed Danny Saucedo finally gets his chance! What is going to happen with Azerbaijan? Dilara is probably fuming, and the country probably doesn't like her, or Malta for that matter (no douze points from their "famous" neighbours?). Will Azerbaijan come back stronger and louder? Yes. I predict something resonant of 2009. Other powerhouses Russia and Ukraine can sit comfortably, and we'll probably get something out of them neither terrible nor amazing next year. Greece will give us more whacky selections too, looking at 20th as a blip rather than a trend.
Recent favourites Italy also scored their worst ever performance at a Eurovision. After only coming back in 2011, is this going to be instrumental? Viewing figures still haven't set the world alight, and they are not going to do anything for interest next year. I expect they'll return without caring about this result, and they'll be back to that top 10 next year.
I move on to the rest of the former Soviet bloc now. Belarus look like they are on the up with 2013 and 2014 results. Alexander Rybak has shown interest in selecting Belarus' participant in 2015 and so could we be heading to Minsk? Proven winner... (although that has meant nothing recently, Niamh Kivanagh, Charlotte Perelli, Dana International etc...). Then we have the Baltic states. Well Latvia haven't upped their games, so I think we can expect another non-qualifier from them. Lithuania won't send anything popular and so people will question whether they will qualify...and then they bloody will...and as for Estonia, well, we will probably get a dull ballad next year. Not that Ott and Brigit were dull, but c'mon, more ballads? Oh and I almost forgot Moldova. I am optimistic that Pasha will make a triumphant return. CHISINAU 2015 BITCHES.
Let's move on to the former Yugoslav bloc. Anyone predicting returns from Serbia, Bosnia & H, Croatia, and so on? Well Montenegro will definitely be back with a boring ballad, hoping that is the recipe for success now. I hope the others return, but it really is up in the air. The last time Serbia took a break was after the dissolution of Serbia and Montenegro...they returned with Molitva. If Serbia do return, I reckon there will be Zelijko intervention of some sort. Could we be going back to Belgrade?
I'll stay near the area and mention the other Southern states. Israel? Well I'd give a year off if I were them, but we'll see. Probably won't qualify though. Albania? More of the same no doubt. Bulgaria? Unless you've got Elista & Stoyan, give it another year. Romania? Could be interesting, Paula & Ovi were supposed to do better. Georgia? More bizzare internal selections. Armenia? Back to basics I reckon. More Sirusho, less Lonely Planets and MP3s hopefully. And then there is TURKEY. Well we all know why they quit in the first place, and things will have to change for them to return. I'm doubtful a bearded lady from Austria will inspire their comeback.
Well I'm moving quite quickly through...there's the middle of Europe to think about. Hungary seemed to have enjoy success the last two years, they'll probably stick to the same and produce qualifiers. Poland might just be that country with the Eurovision gems for the next few years. Moldova and Montenegro have treated us with some rare and unusual songs recently, maybe Poland will continue to bring the butter churners? Czech Republic and Slovakia may look at recent results and consider coming back. If Austria can lift the crown, then they can definitely qualify with the right approach. A bearded lady from a neighbouring country may just set alight enough interest. Oh and let's hope Liechtenstein finally get the funding to make their debut. They could be the new San Marino...keep trying and you'll make it. Valentina once said that this will be her last Eurovision whether she qualifies or not. I think San Marino might be represented by someone else next year. And I have a feeling they are going to be really good. Instinctual, don't ask why. Oooh I suppose Switzerland count as the middle. Well, I expect no change from them, it'll be middle of the road, and will either qualify or won't.
Moving on to the west now...and well, not considering the big 5, what on earth is happening? The Netherlands look on course to become the new Eurovision powerhouse with fantastic entries in the last 2 years...Belgium may be taking a leaf out of their book. Malta have been enjoying much success over the last couple, they'll give us something similar to Kurt and Gianluca next year. Unless Chiara comes back again, which no fan should ever rule out. Portugal might take another year out, it's hard to say. In my opinion, they should look to Brazil and should have played off the World Cup this year. That's easy to say with hindsight, but Brazil speak Portugese and are not short of a few stars. Introduce Michel Telo to Europe. Ai Se Eu Te Pego (think I've spelled that correctly) or something similar would storm Eurovision!! Ireland are probably well pissed they didn't qualify and will send a ballad about peace or love (similar to what we heard in the 90s) next year...unless Jedward come back. They promised to give Eurovision another go if they penned their own song. Well if someone teaches them to sit still and write we could be in for something magically brilliant...or magically hilarious.
Little mention to the Nordic countries...continue doing what you're doing. 2 of the 5 Scandinavians will finish in the top 10 at least, I'm once more going to hope Iceland win.

And finally we have the big 5 countries. Spain will send another female ballad if they realise what's good for them...Germany will send up and coming talent, which will probably be quite good...already mentioned Italy...goodness knows how Austria are going to come up with an act to follow Conchita. Unless Conchita performs again, which I doubt very much...France really don't care and will send another fun act...and though the citizens of the UK bemoan once more that "everybody hates us", I beg, beg, beg the BBC to repeat the same procedure. Pick up and coming talent, get them to write the song, give them a shot on the biggest stage in Europe. They'll get fans whoever they are, and with a bit of luck, we might finally do it. Do not send a has-been, do not let the public choose, do not invite Jedward to perform for us, just use BBC Introducing. Or plead to Simon Cowell to use one of his artists. If One Direction enter, we have this. I have just written paragraphs upon paragraphs about the UK selection process, but I deleted it. I wanna keep this short and sweet: the UK is one of the best music exporting countries in the world, with some of the biggest names in music British. There are extremely talented performers up and down the country trying to squeeze into this industry. Most are going to bed at night praying for that opportunity. Those who have decided that music is their passion and that's what they want to do will snap up the chance to get some attention to their talents. Molly Smitten-Downes received exposure to her music and has a steady growing fan base...and she has a record contract now too. Her finishing 17th hasn't lost fans to her music. Give unsigned artists a chance, a platform and ignore the pessimists. The BBC once again dominated Saturday Night Ratings with one of the cheapest shows filling the hot 20:00 to 23:30 slots. They are not withdrawing any time soon.

Well rant over, what about anyone I've forgotten? Shout out for Cyprus to make a return! Will we see any new participants? I think our best hope is Liechtenstein. The Vatican could always send some dancing nuns (guaranteed top 3) but it's more likely I discover a sexual attraction to cows over the next year than the Vatican City even debating entering the contest. Kazakhstan should enter...and Australia should be given a 60th celebration entry, and that chapter is definitely not closed. With no diaspora voting, it would be so interesting to see how the Ozzies vote. As a UK citizen, I'm praying that our English speaking friends give us a nod for at least a couple of points!

Predictions for next year's winner: Sweden, Azerbaijan, Belarus or Serbia (if they come back).
It could be another similar year, wide open and hotly contested, and we could end up with an unprecedented winner. If that's the case, let's hope Iceland or Portugal do it.

Prediction for the big 5: well, they will be automatic qualifiers, I don't see that changing for at least a few more years yet. The UK will finish on the right hand side, as will France and Spain. Germany will finish on the left hand side, and Italy will finish in the top 10.

Prediction Surprises: San Marino will have a good track, and Israel will qualify with a hot male singing a ballad. Lithuania will enter more tripe and qualify, and to their disgust, fan favourite Estonia will miss out again. Ireland will turn fortunes around, as will Moldova, but one of the Nordics will suffer from an early semi final draw and not qualify.

Prediction about the rules: More weighting will be applied to televoting. The countries which finish top 3 in the televote will be guaranteed points even if they are hated by the juries (circa Poland '14).

Prediction for withdrawals: FYR Macedonia might give it a break, Georgia could give it a year, and Albania might call it a day.

Predictions about controversy: Azerbaijan and Armenia will give us more problems. Russia will send something political but still be allowed to enter it, as the Ukraine have done on countless occasions.

Other Predictions: Geri Halliwell will not compete for the UK. Although don't rule out Katrina teaming up with Mike Nolan for a super entry, criticised by Sandie Shaw, and finishing last. Unless Kimberly Rew decides to write it. France will beg Anne-Marie David to give it another crack, but settle for someone similar to Sebastian Tellier. Ireland will send a drag queen, and there'll be jokes amongst fans that it is actually Linda Martin. Johnny Logan will be considered.

So the predictions got a bit silly...but you never know...

POST SEMI FINAL 1 EXCITEMENT (2014 edition)

Good Afternoon readers! Who is still hungover from the excitement of the first semi final last night?

To start with, wasn't last night just spectacular? Its good to have Eurovision back on our TV screens after another year. I personally thought the stage was brilliant; the diamond floor and squared backdrop came across really nicely on TV, and it was used well throughout. The opening sequence was a little cheesy if we're all honest, and I did want it to end much sooner than it did. The hosts looked like they were having fun though. Oh and then there was the interval act. I never find out what the interval acts are and how they're rehearsing as I like to keep some magic for the show. Although forgetful, I thought the interval act was very nice, and the diamonte tracksuit will be remembered for time to come.

But what about the entrants! Well I thought every country gave it their all on the night and should be thoroughly congratulated on an excellent performance. The only exception to that is Andras Kallay-Saunders, who I found personally gave a weak vocal performance. Not too much criticism though, he gave an energetic performance and was rewarded with qualification. I predict that he won last night's semi final.

And that moves me on to the qualifiers!
They were: Armenia, Sweden, Iceland, Russia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, San Marino, Netherlands, Montenegro, Hungary.

Once again I only got 8/10 correct, with San Marino and Iceland replacing Moldova and Estonia. Were there any shock qualifiers? Well in reality, there weren't. I ate my words as I watched Iceland's "Pollaponk" bring the house down! Well they definitely were one of the favourites in my house anyway. I suppose the biggest shock was San Marino qualifying, but I did have them 11th in my pre-semi final prediction so it wasn't much a shock for me. I am so pleased for Valentina Monetta, it's true what they say about being "third time lucky"!

Eurovision fans have been mourning the loss of Tanja and Estonia from the competition, but it definitely felt very much like Cascada and 'Glorious' from last year, so at the most they would have qualified and finished in the bottom 5/6. Tanja had a great choreography, but I think it was a bit too generic and a bit too early on to qualify. As for Moldova! Well I've always got a soft spot for them, and perhaps prediciting 'Wild Soul' in the final was a bit too optimistic. Still I though diaspora voting would carry them through, but perhaps countries like Ukraine and Portugal were a bit too preoccupied with other entrants to send douze points there way. And that brings me to Ukraine...and Russia....

I've never been a fan of 'Tick Tock' but it's definitely a good song when performed, and we know the Ukrainians would provide some of the best staging yet again. The Giant Hamster Wheel went down like a storm and although in reality rather simple, it visually works perfect for a TV audience. And plus, Mariya is a very pretty girl, always guaranteed votes for being mega hot. Did Ukraine give Russia 12 points is the question? Well, who gave Russia points? Russia would always benefit from a generous diaspora vote, and former Soviets are likely to give them points. Plus, no matter how much Eurovision fans don't like the song/boycott the Russian entry, 'Shine' has all the elements that an Eastern European jury will marvel in, and two attractive blonde twins will go down well with males across Europe. I don't think the Russians squeezed into the final, but I still don't predict they will take the roof off in the final. I could see Russia finishing 14th or something, just missing out on a left-hand side position. The booing that the twins experienced when they were announced as qualifiers was absolutely disgusting. Booing Aram MP3 for 'potentially' homophobic remarks at Eurovision In Concert is one thing, but booing an act for making the final is just awful. There are many ways to express your current discontent with Russia, and Eurovision is not one of them. I say Good Luck to the twins for the final!

On a more positive note, who do you think just missed out on qualification to the final? Jan Ola Sand has since tweeted that there were just 3 points separating 10th, 11th and 12th last night. This means that two countries were agonisingly close to qualifying! My money is on Estonia and Moldova, but I've heard a number of combinations from the 6 countries who were unfortunate not to make it.

Finally we come to the first half, second half draw for the final. I've heard many UK fans say that the draw was fate, and well if we're honest, having quite a few favourites draw to perform in the first half makes it look even more positive for the UK. The draw so far looks like this:

First Half
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Germany
Iceland
Montenegro
Sweden
Ukraine
(6 slots left)

Second Half
France
Hungary
Italy
Netherlands
Russia
San Marino
Spain
United Kingdom
23. Denmark (randomly drawn before the semi finals began)
(4 slots left)


Well as you all know, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Sweden and Ukraine all performing in the first half means that one of them will not make the top 10, if not more. Performing in the second half has always been more beneficial, but it's not the be all and end all. However, the producers do now have a bit of a headache, having to select to choose where each of them performs. But as I said, they wont all do well. Is this the first year Azerbaijan wont make the top 10? Will they even finish on the left-hand side?
The second half of the draw does look very pretty for Molly and the UK at the moment. The only big rival is Hungary, and I have a sneaky feeling they might steal it this year. 'Running' is very well polished, and I think it could chart all over Europe...and that reminds me! Charts! I'm sure you've all heard how the Common Linnets are charting everywhere! This is brilliant news! The odds for the Dutch to win are falling rapidly, and could we be heading to the land of the orange next year? I'll be the first to admit that I never saw this coming. But Congratulations to them! They have a second half performance too, is it all falling into place for the Netherlands at the right time? I gave their staging a maximum 20/20 in my pre-contest scoring prediction, and I can see the juries lapping it up...but it seems televoters are too. All will be revealed Saturday, it's just too exciting!

Well the next semi final kicks off the same time at 20:00 CET and 21:00 BST on Thursday 8th May. We'll be joined by the final 10 qualifiers for the final on Saturday. It's a close one this year, no more close than the second semi final. Here are my predictions again:
Malta, Israel, Norway, Poland, Austria, Lithuania, Finland, Ireland, Greece and Romania. But I think it's impossible to predict. I could get just 5/10 or I could get the max 10/10 right.

And now back to revision I go, procrastination can survive no longer!

Who is going to win Eurovision 2014?

Well let's be honest, this is what it is all about. So many fans spend so many months trying to predict the winner of the contest. We have our favourites, we have our least favourites, and then we have the songs which we know will do well regardless of our own personal tastes. This year I've struggled yet again with the popularity of the Italian entrant, Emma Marrone grunting out 'La Mia Citta' isn't to my personal taste. Another country which has been favourited by fans is Israel and Mei Finegold's 'Same Heart', and once again, I struggle to enjoy the Israeli entrant just as much as my fellow fans. However, one of my personal favourites has been Malta with 'Coming Home' - whereas people have criticised the female vocalist in Firelight, I found her addition to the song quite nice. And then there's France and Denmark and so on. But for once I am loving the United Kingdom popularity! We have just been declared outright winner of the ESC Nation poll, and I'm yet to see us fair badly in any poll or anyone's personal choices. Whether people like it, I haven't seen anyone deny that this will do top 10. PLEASE EUROPE I BEG YOU! The Hump didn't deserve it, Blue sounded awful live, god knows what Pete Waterman wrote for Josh Dubovie, and Bonnie could've bored the pants off someone on an acid trip last year...but this year, we have a great song, a great vocalist, and undoubtedly our best entrant since Katrina and the Waves. Good Luck Molly! I'm hoping you bring it home!


Below is my personal poll of 2014. I've conducted a survey of various online fan polls, fan predictors, I've included an odds scoring system, as well as marks for staging and vocals, and then there's the bonus marks for countries like Azerbaijan who could enter cats drowning and still finish top 10 (no criticism there, I've actually liked all Azeri entries apart from 2008, and the top 5 placings are thoroughly deserved, but let's be honest, what I just said is kinda true). There is NO bias what-so-ever, my own personal favourites weren't given more marks for staging for example, I was brutal with most contestants, but like most other surveys, don't take too much to heart.


First up, here's my prediction of the 10 qualifiers from each semi final:
Semi Final 1
Armenia
Estonia
Sweden
Russia
Azerbaijan
Ukraine
Moldova
Montenegro
Hungary
San Marino/Netherlands (I went with the Netherlands)

Semi Final 2
Malta
Israel
Norway
Poland
Austria
Lithuania
Finland
Ireland
Greece
Romania



THE FINAL:

#1 UNITED KINGDOM - 97.05
#2 Sweden - 95.3
#3 Hungary - 93.4
#4 Armenia - 90.15
#5 Greece - 83.85
#6 Austria - 81.15
#7 Norway - 79.65
#8 Denmark - 78.3
#9 Azerbaijan - 75.96
#10 Ukraine - 73.51
#11 Spain - 72.7
#12 Romania - 70.64
#13 Italy - 70.56
#14 Israel - 69.35
#15 Netherlands - 68.75
#16 Montenegro - 64.9
#17 Ireland - 63.3
#18 France - 62.1
#19 Germany - 59.45
#20 Finland - 59.09
#21 Malta - 57.6
#22 Estonia - 55.3
#23 Poland - 54.8
#24 Russia - 45.5
#25 Moldova - 36.94
#26 Lithuania - 28.65


Now taking a step back from that - if Lithuania do qualify as I think they will, will they finish bottom? I doubt it. Knowing Lithuania they'll probably end up finishing top half of the board.  And there is going to be a shock, there always is. Nobody saw Malta finishing as high as they did last year, or Germany finishing as low as they did. So whose up for predicting the big shocks? I think saying Lithuania will qualify qualifies as predicting a "shock", but next to that I'm staking it out on Georgia. I don't think San Marino will qualify, but good luck Valentina Monetta! From laughing stock to serious contender to heartbroken fans, MAYBE this is your year Valentina!

Good Luck to all those competing at Eurovision 2014! May the singing commence.

The Return of Ralph.

Yes, you read that right, San Marino.

Fair enough, the Netherlands have had a rough ride. But it's still the Dutch. San Marino provide the greater shock. Despite being an old country, they have a population of a mere 32,000 (according to sources) and have only been competing in Eurovision since 2008. Admittedly this is the same amount of time as Azerbaijan (winners, and last year's hosts), but they are a bigger, richer country. This is San Marino! The country which gave us the Social Network Song. Yes, remember that? Well the girl woman that sung the Social Network Song, Valentina Monetta, is back with a bigger, better song. And guess what? It's not good, it's brillaint.

The Social Network Song was wrong for all the right reasons. 'Crisalide (vola)' is right for all the right reasons. And guess who wrote Crisalide? Ralph Siegel. For those of you who don't know who Ralph Siegel is, just type his name into google. He is one of the biggest stars of Eurovision, composing songs since the 70's (that is 5 decades now!) but only has 1 win under his name - 1982 winner Nicole and 'Ein Bisschen Frieden', notably one of the greatest songs & winners in Eurovision history. Yes he did happen to pen the Social Network Song last year - and yes that did follow in a line of poor attempts - but he is back to strike again with Crisalide. Valentina is now acting her age, Siegel has screwed his head back on, and San Marino are ready to finally come to Eurovision with a decent song - and that has meant a decent chance.

It's hard to predict if they could win. If you listen to the song, you'll see why people like it and fans are voting for it in online polls. Without knowing the meaning in the lyrics, they are moving and emotive, and the composition really pulls this through. From a slow ballad to a modern beat/melody, a song like this has potential to branch into acapella/acoustic and become a club smash hit. The key word there is 'potential'. Crisalide is a song to be remembered - even if it underperforms, fans will remember it as an upset. But that's not why this will be remembered. It's Valentina Monetta transforming from a Social Network disaster to a Crisalide masterpiece. It's Ralph Siegel restoring his old Eurovision power. It's San Marino putting themselves on the map.

By the way, San Marino is situated in the North of Italy.

San Marino - 2012

Valentina Monetta. The Social Network Song. Oh Oh Uh Oh Oh.

I... I um... Yeah... What the... IS THIS EVEN A SONG!??? What on earth is this? I have never heard such Eurovision nonsense in all my time. I mean, is this serious? Or is this meant to be a novelty act? All apologies to Valentina Monetta for sounding rude, but oh my days, I can't even comprehend this. THIS ISN'T A SONG. It is someone singing about a certain social networking website. I just don't even know how to describe it. You are seriously going to have to listen to it for yourself to make your own mind up. I mean, you have poor entries, you have awful, terrible entries, and you have novelty entries. And then, this year, you have this. Who made up the San Marino internal selection jury? Like, were they all drunk? Even if you were drunk, you still wouldn't be able to justify choosing this. They must have been high, that's it. OR, Valentina Monetta could have been the ONLY choice for representing San Marino, and so they wouldn't of had any choice but to pick her. Goodness knows, this is just something else. I recently complained about the Belgian entry, and how Iris sung about things which usually 17 years olds know nothing about. Well, this might be a bit ageist, but surely the same thing applies to this? I think Valentina is about 37...and "social networks" are generally used by students mostly, and so why on earth is a 37 year old going to sing about cybersex and Facebook? I just don't understand any of it. Nothing about this song is good. But, again, IT'S NOT EVEN A SONG! Do you know what though? I am praying that this will qualify. It would be absolutely hilarious! If it won, that would make me even happier. Literally, this is SOO FUNNY.

Song Rating: 0/10                     (IT'S NOT A SONG!)
Liklihood to win: 0/10              (Armenia and Poland have a greater chance of winning. Eurovision fans will know what that is funny).

Current odds: 250-1                   (oddschecker.com) (on average) (I know! ONLY 250 to 1)