Showing posts with label eurovision 2014. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eurovision 2014. Show all posts

Tuesday, 13 May 2014

What can we learn from Conchita?

Well it's time to procrastinate once again. You know the Eurovision season stops and I go back into hibernation. Not this year, this year seems bigger, there seems to be more interest and if you're not playing QuizUp then download and we can all start quizzing each other on their new topic of questions: Eurovision (duh?).

So today's blogpost looks at what we can learn from Conchita. Well I say Conchita, I really mean the 2014 season. And I apologise for any readers from outside the UK, as I may predominantly focus on that disappointing 17th place.

IF YOU HAVEN'T GOT MUCH TIME, I'VE DONE A PERFECT SUMMARY DOWN THE BOTTOM. IF NOT, READ ON...

To begin with, 2014 was a good year. In fact, it was a very good year. Like a lot of other fans, I was originally disappointed when I heard all the songs from this year. Then I grew to love Children of the Universe, Freaky Fortune are my new favourite Euroboyband (I guess I could call them that?), Firelight and The Common Linnets have re-excited my love for country music, and dubstep seems to be oozing into the far corners of Europe.
But where was 'Euphoria'? Fairytale? Only Teardrops? Satellite? The recent years have thrown up some true greats, and even when we couldn't decide the winner of the 2011 edition, it is undeniably one of my favourite years as I LOVE so many songs that year. This year we had no clear cut winner, no runaway favourite. Every fan site indicated different answers, you'd go to ESC Stats where they'd be bigging up Sweden...ESC Nation fans voted in their thousands for the UK...the bookmakers were so keen on Armenia taking the victory...WiWiBloggs really buggered it up, rating and voting Ireland so highly...even on this blog (where you can still vote for your favourite, I should definitely remove that poll!) Hungary were the hot favourite. Everywhere you looked though, noone was denying that Conchita was going to do well, even with most predicting a conservative backlash about our famous bearded lady. But that was also the case for Israel, and looked what happened to poor old Mei Finegold. What I'm saying is Sweden and Denmark were so obviously going to win in 2012 and 2013, everyone knew Germany probably had it in the bag in 2010, Norway looked a cert to win in 2009 and when the draw was released, Azerbaijan rocketed to the top of the odds in 2011. This year was different on every level, sure Austria climbed after that magnificent semi final performance, but they weren't the hot favourites even with a couple of hours to go. And they had 11th in the draw. Basically, this year collected all the recent stats since the 2009 rule change and threw them out the window. Are we entering a new era for Eurovision?

(by the way I left out the OGAE poll for a number of reasons; in summary, don't read anything into that bloody poll!)

Onwards and upwards then, what can we expect in 2015?
Well for a start, I'm sure Austria will put on a lavish show for ESC numero 60. It's gonna be special. Jon Ola Sand promised. What about the songs though? Sweden have got quite a reputation to uphold, with 3rd in 2011, 1st in 2012, let's not mention 2013, and 3rd this year. Without doubt Melodifestivalen has turned up a notch since that non-qualification incident in 2010 and so naturally, the Swedes will produce someone popular once more. Fingers crossed Danny Saucedo finally gets his chance! What is going to happen with Azerbaijan? Dilara is probably fuming, and the country probably doesn't like her, or Malta for that matter (no douze points from their "famous" neighbours?). Will Azerbaijan come back stronger and louder? Yes. I predict something resonant of 2009. Other powerhouses Russia and Ukraine can sit comfortably, and we'll probably get something out of them neither terrible nor amazing next year. Greece will give us more whacky selections too, looking at 20th as a blip rather than a trend.
Recent favourites Italy also scored their worst ever performance at a Eurovision. After only coming back in 2011, is this going to be instrumental? Viewing figures still haven't set the world alight, and they are not going to do anything for interest next year. I expect they'll return without caring about this result, and they'll be back to that top 10 next year.
I move on to the rest of the former Soviet bloc now. Belarus look like they are on the up with 2013 and 2014 results. Alexander Rybak has shown interest in selecting Belarus' participant in 2015 and so could we be heading to Minsk? Proven winner... (although that has meant nothing recently, Niamh Kivanagh, Charlotte Perelli, Dana International etc...). Then we have the Baltic states. Well Latvia haven't upped their games, so I think we can expect another non-qualifier from them. Lithuania won't send anything popular and so people will question whether they will qualify...and then they bloody will...and as for Estonia, well, we will probably get a dull ballad next year. Not that Ott and Brigit were dull, but c'mon, more ballads? Oh and I almost forgot Moldova. I am optimistic that Pasha will make a triumphant return. CHISINAU 2015 BITCHES.
Let's move on to the former Yugoslav bloc. Anyone predicting returns from Serbia, Bosnia & H, Croatia, and so on? Well Montenegro will definitely be back with a boring ballad, hoping that is the recipe for success now. I hope the others return, but it really is up in the air. The last time Serbia took a break was after the dissolution of Serbia and Montenegro...they returned with Molitva. If Serbia do return, I reckon there will be Zelijko intervention of some sort. Could we be going back to Belgrade?
I'll stay near the area and mention the other Southern states. Israel? Well I'd give a year off if I were them, but we'll see. Probably won't qualify though. Albania? More of the same no doubt. Bulgaria? Unless you've got Elista & Stoyan, give it another year. Romania? Could be interesting, Paula & Ovi were supposed to do better. Georgia? More bizzare internal selections. Armenia? Back to basics I reckon. More Sirusho, less Lonely Planets and MP3s hopefully. And then there is TURKEY. Well we all know why they quit in the first place, and things will have to change for them to return. I'm doubtful a bearded lady from Austria will inspire their comeback.
Well I'm moving quite quickly through...there's the middle of Europe to think about. Hungary seemed to have enjoy success the last two years, they'll probably stick to the same and produce qualifiers. Poland might just be that country with the Eurovision gems for the next few years. Moldova and Montenegro have treated us with some rare and unusual songs recently, maybe Poland will continue to bring the butter churners? Czech Republic and Slovakia may look at recent results and consider coming back. If Austria can lift the crown, then they can definitely qualify with the right approach. A bearded lady from a neighbouring country may just set alight enough interest. Oh and let's hope Liechtenstein finally get the funding to make their debut. They could be the new San Marino...keep trying and you'll make it. Valentina once said that this will be her last Eurovision whether she qualifies or not. I think San Marino might be represented by someone else next year. And I have a feeling they are going to be really good. Instinctual, don't ask why. Oooh I suppose Switzerland count as the middle. Well, I expect no change from them, it'll be middle of the road, and will either qualify or won't.
Moving on to the west now...and well, not considering the big 5, what on earth is happening? The Netherlands look on course to become the new Eurovision powerhouse with fantastic entries in the last 2 years...Belgium may be taking a leaf out of their book. Malta have been enjoying much success over the last couple, they'll give us something similar to Kurt and Gianluca next year. Unless Chiara comes back again, which no fan should ever rule out. Portugal might take another year out, it's hard to say. In my opinion, they should look to Brazil and should have played off the World Cup this year. That's easy to say with hindsight, but Brazil speak Portugese and are not short of a few stars. Introduce Michel Telo to Europe. Ai Se Eu Te Pego (think I've spelled that correctly) or something similar would storm Eurovision!! Ireland are probably well pissed they didn't qualify and will send a ballad about peace or love (similar to what we heard in the 90s) next year...unless Jedward come back. They promised to give Eurovision another go if they penned their own song. Well if someone teaches them to sit still and write we could be in for something magically brilliant...or magically hilarious.
Little mention to the Nordic countries...continue doing what you're doing. 2 of the 5 Scandinavians will finish in the top 10 at least, I'm once more going to hope Iceland win.

And finally we have the big 5 countries. Spain will send another female ballad if they realise what's good for them...Germany will send up and coming talent, which will probably be quite good...already mentioned Italy...goodness knows how Austria are going to come up with an act to follow Conchita. Unless Conchita performs again, which I doubt very much...France really don't care and will send another fun act...and though the citizens of the UK bemoan once more that "everybody hates us", I beg, beg, beg the BBC to repeat the same procedure. Pick up and coming talent, get them to write the song, give them a shot on the biggest stage in Europe. They'll get fans whoever they are, and with a bit of luck, we might finally do it. Do not send a has-been, do not let the public choose, do not invite Jedward to perform for us, just use BBC Introducing. Or plead to Simon Cowell to use one of his artists. If One Direction enter, we have this. I have just written paragraphs upon paragraphs about the UK selection process, but I deleted it. I wanna keep this short and sweet: the UK is one of the best music exporting countries in the world, with some of the biggest names in music British. There are extremely talented performers up and down the country trying to squeeze into this industry. Most are going to bed at night praying for that opportunity. Those who have decided that music is their passion and that's what they want to do will snap up the chance to get some attention to their talents. Molly Smitten-Downes received exposure to her music and has a steady growing fan base...and she has a record contract now too. Her finishing 17th hasn't lost fans to her music. Give unsigned artists a chance, a platform and ignore the pessimists. The BBC once again dominated Saturday Night Ratings with one of the cheapest shows filling the hot 20:00 to 23:30 slots. They are not withdrawing any time soon.

Well rant over, what about anyone I've forgotten? Shout out for Cyprus to make a return! Will we see any new participants? I think our best hope is Liechtenstein. The Vatican could always send some dancing nuns (guaranteed top 3) but it's more likely I discover a sexual attraction to cows over the next year than the Vatican City even debating entering the contest. Kazakhstan should enter...and Australia should be given a 60th celebration entry, and that chapter is definitely not closed. With no diaspora voting, it would be so interesting to see how the Ozzies vote. As a UK citizen, I'm praying that our English speaking friends give us a nod for at least a couple of points!

Predictions for next year's winner: Sweden, Azerbaijan, Belarus or Serbia (if they come back).
It could be another similar year, wide open and hotly contested, and we could end up with an unprecedented winner. If that's the case, let's hope Iceland or Portugal do it.

Prediction for the big 5: well, they will be automatic qualifiers, I don't see that changing for at least a few more years yet. The UK will finish on the right hand side, as will France and Spain. Germany will finish on the left hand side, and Italy will finish in the top 10.

Prediction Surprises: San Marino will have a good track, and Israel will qualify with a hot male singing a ballad. Lithuania will enter more tripe and qualify, and to their disgust, fan favourite Estonia will miss out again. Ireland will turn fortunes around, as will Moldova, but one of the Nordics will suffer from an early semi final draw and not qualify.

Prediction about the rules: More weighting will be applied to televoting. The countries which finish top 3 in the televote will be guaranteed points even if they are hated by the juries (circa Poland '14).

Prediction for withdrawals: FYR Macedonia might give it a break, Georgia could give it a year, and Albania might call it a day.

Predictions about controversy: Azerbaijan and Armenia will give us more problems. Russia will send something political but still be allowed to enter it, as the Ukraine have done on countless occasions.

Other Predictions: Geri Halliwell will not compete for the UK. Although don't rule out Katrina teaming up with Mike Nolan for a super entry, criticised by Sandie Shaw, and finishing last. Unless Kimberly Rew decides to write it. France will beg Anne-Marie David to give it another crack, but settle for someone similar to Sebastian Tellier. Ireland will send a drag queen, and there'll be jokes amongst fans that it is actually Linda Martin. Johnny Logan will be considered.

So the predictions got a bit silly...but you never know...

Sunday, 11 May 2014

Conchita is the new Queen of Eurovision!

Well anyone reading this certainly watched it all unravel last night, so why bother mentioning individual scores? All we need to care about is CONCHITA WURST - THE NEW QUEEN OF EUROVISION! Huge Congratulations to Conchita and to Austria, and a big fuck you to the haters. Nuff said...



Conchita Wurst celebrating after winning the 59th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. She managed a grand total 290 points and stole the show with her image, her song and her message. The juries and televoters have fallen in love with a new star. Roll on Vienna 2015!



But I'm sure you're sick of reading about Conchita already? I'm not, but there are some other items on this agenda. We'll get the big one out the way first... WHY DID YOU NOT ALL VOTE FOR MOLLY? Ha ha ha ha ha, I'm gutted the UK didn't do better! But I said it before the contest and I'll say it again now, first or last, Molly has done an incredible job for her country and should hold her head high. So what if they didn't all fall in love with it? The mass Eurovision fan community did, and you cannot deny that Children of the Universe is a stunning song. She should have done better, but then, in my opinion, Greece and Malta should have done much better too. And that's all it is at the end of the day - opinions. The BBC need to keep doing this: give unsigned acts a chance, use the wide spread talent we have! You also have to feel for Italy, who just had their worst ever showing at a Eurovision, as well as Azerbaijan flopping BIG time. Any UK fans need to remember that Austria have just waited 48 years for victory. Spain haven't won since '69, Netherlands '75 (oh big Congrats to the Dutch! Cracking show, best result in years and thoroughly deserved. First Anouk and now the Common Linnets, keep 'em coming!), and although the list could go on, Portugal keep trying and have never finished higher than 6th. "Everybody hates us" - oh shut up! Nobody hates us. Next!

The next thing we need to all think about is how we want the voting to take place. Yet again, the day after is the day of CONTROVERSY! And what controversy we have this year! First off, the Armenian jury marked Azerbaijan 25th out of 25, and vice versa. It looks like Montenegro have done something shifty as well...especially when looking at Montenegro/Armenia results. Georgia's jury vote wasn't even used because of some sort of breach in jury rules, so just their televote was used. And thank god it did, it gave the UK points! But looking at it seriously, something isn't right and it needs investigating. Oh and you have to feel for Poland (and Switzerland). Poland would have finished 6th if it was 100% televoting with countries like UK and Ireland giving them top points from televoting. However the juries certainly did not love it. Malta had the same thing happen but the other way round - 6th with juries but not the best with televoters. If we're all honest though, a 50/50 split is going to result in one or two countries at least dividing televoters and juries like Marmite. I say investigate the controversy, but ignore the calls for changes. Keep it 50/50 for a few years.

Let's also mention the booing, and the politics. Russia giving Austria 5 points!? Well Done! Obviously Russian people are not happy about the situation in their country, and the LGBT community responded with televotes for Conchita. Say what you think about that, but that to me is a marvellous thing. I was shocked Russia and Ukraine did not exchange 12 points, but it just goes to show that Politics is not as big in Eurovision this year as we all dreaded it might be. It's socio-political to vote for a bearded lady even if she screamed blue murder for 3 minutes, but Conchita had a sensual James Bond ballad and a stunning voice. She won for the song just as much as for the image. 
And how can it be ALL political when Austria, the Netherlands and Sweden finished 1, 2, 3? 3 Western countries completing the top 3 tells me the exact obvious. 

There has to be a big mention to our hosts from last night! Denmark I think put on one of the best Eurovision contests I've ever seen. In my personal opinion, Baku, Moscow and Dusseldorf have all put on spectaculars in the last few years, but Copenhagen really had something special. The staging was aesthetically brilliant, the postcards all required originality and some of them were incredible, the hosts were quick witted and provided some of that great Scandinavian humour, the interval acts were very good, and I just really, really appreciated the whole thing. So much to say that it might be favourite host city so far. Debate ensuing... However, the most magical part of everything which makes me argue it's my favourite is 'Rainmaker'. Emmelie de Forest singing with all the finalists, and by the looks of it, the entire arena as well, was "magic". I can't describe it better than that! That will be one of the performances I'll remember for some time.

And so we move to Vienna 2015. The English are going crazy... the last time Austria won the Eurovision Song Contest was 1966, incidentally the same year that England last won the FIFA World Cup. I won't bore you with the other coincidental football statistics, but as a fan of football too, there is a brightside to only finishing 17th last night! Thankyou to all countries who gave us points, to all readers who voted for the UK, and a huge Good Luck to Austria for hosting the 2015 and 60th edition of the contest. Next year is going to be big everybody! Thankyou for reading my blog and following the posts. I hope they have been interesting and summarative. I throw in my opinions because so many blogs try to stay neutral in my opinion. I'm not. I hope you join me to look forward to no. 60 and are revelling in a victory for freedom today! Well Done Conchita Wurst.




Rise Like a Phoenix - Conchita Wurst - your winner!


Saturday, 10 May 2014

Who will use as a toilet break tonight?

In one of my favourite posts of the Eurovision season, I will draw everyone's attention back to the running order - you need to decide your toilet break song!

Okay, so there is a interval or two, and you don't really need to watch all 37 countries release their votes...but after a few too many beers are you really gonna be able to hold it in for more than a couple of songs? And what happens when you need to refresh your drink? Too many possibilities not to plan your evening.

This year the producers have made it extremely hard to select an ideal toilet break/refreshment top up whatever you want to call it. So what you have pause on your tv? That doesn't count.
I was really tempted by breaking during Azerbaijan in 3rd slot...but Azerbaijan are one of my favourite nations in the contest, I'm a big fan of Dilara and 'Start a fire' and plus, they're only 3rd. Therefore I say hold tight till Germany in 12th. Sorry fans of Elaiza, but really, it isn't right! The bland performance from the Germans runs into a commercial break for the rest of Europe so this is a chance for a mega break - go to toilet, grab another 3 cans, refill the peanuts, straighten up your country's flag and get back to your hot seat. A blip in the show will provide lots of space for talking; especially when Russia take to the stage. I will put money on it that my housemates will discuss Russian politics when the twins take stage. After letting them continue through Italy and Slovenia (excellent chances to break if you've forgotten anything), shit will start to get better around Finland in 18 (no pun intended there!). And if you're really desperate, I'm sure many won't mind you skipping Switzerland in 20 or Valentina's final performance for San Marino in slot 25. Then UK fans better be ready for Molly to take the roof off!

The EBU have released the running order for the votes following last night's jury rehearsal...there's whisper on the web that this indicates a western country has won the jury vote...are we heading Austria, Netherlands, UK, Sweden? Even Hungary could have won it to be fair. Let's not speculate about the voting order, because the jury and televoters will not necessarily vote in unison.

5 hours to go now, this shit is getting exciting!

Friday, 9 May 2014

POST SEMI FINAL 2 EXCITEMENT (2014 Edition)

Aaaaaah Eurovision week is going far too quickly! I don't want it to end. But one advantage is that the final is only one sleep away now...

Whose still hungover from the excitement last night? The Friday after the second semi final is always more tiring simply because we all stay up later for the draw. But for now, let's look back at another brilliant night of Eurovision.

The 10 qualifiers from semi final 2 are (if you don't know this by now, where the hell have you been?): Malta, Norway, Poland, Austria, Finland, Belarus, Switzerland, Greece, Slovenia, and Romania.

Let's first discuss the qualifiers...well are any of them a shock to you? With hindsight the qualifiers seem so god damn obvious! Performing near the end of semi final was always going to be more beneficial in such a wide open race to qualification, hence the success of Switzerland and Slovenia... and those early enough in the draw to qualify all had something going for them; Carl Epsen of Norway produced an absolutely stunning vocal guaranteed to get Mums all over Europe falling in love. Additionally, Poland had breasts, Finland had a fangirl rock band, and Austria had a bearded lady. Huge Congratulations has to go to Malta for qualifying right from position 1. Malta seemed to get a little abuse from Eurofans, which seemed absurd to me, but obviously Maltaford and Sons have popularity across the continent. A quick mention to Belarus - the performance was slick and was sure to get all the other Mums in Europe falling in love. Finally there was Greece and Romania: anyone thinking these 2 wouldn't qualify evidently knows nothing about Eurovision.

So let's get to the bit everyone is complaining: the non-qualifiers! 5 participants had to fail to make it and there was always going to be disappointment over who wouldn't make it. Before I begin, fans who complain need to accept it and move on. If you struggle with that, then ask yourself; did you give all 20 of your votes to your favourite who didn't qualify? If you did then stay pissed at the juries till next year, if not, then really just get over it!
The biggest complaint is Israel failing to qualify! Well, Mei Finegold certainly delivered a stunning routine, and although I originally couldn't stand 'Same Heart', it was beginning to grow on me. Nevertheless, it was in my opinion very overrated and to see it not make the final isn't that much of a shock. But I hear your protests already so I'll defend my thinking as to why they didn't qualify: it was too generic! Israel failed to qualify alongside Ireland, FYR Macedonia and Lithuania. On the whole, you could argue all of these are fairly simple. Someone who is going to like Israel will probably have also liked Ireland, FYR Macedonia and Lithuania. Them failing to qualify as well probably meant that their similarities worked against them and divided like-minded voters. That's my explanation of it anyway. Israel probably did the best of the 4, for Ireland gave a horribly lifeless performance, Lithuania's Vilija was rocking a futuristic Celine Dion outfit, and Tijana of FYR Macedonia didn't have the best vocal. But I sit here and criticise them in the smallest ways. In reality, all countries gave it there all last night and should feel very proud!
The only other qualifier I haven't mentioned is Georgia. And I don't feel I need to say any more.

But let's now discuss the draw for the final! Well as a UK citizen, you can predict my fangasm when other contenders like Greece, Romania, Norway and Austria were all allocated in the first half of the final. Its fate surely? We didn't have to wait as long as last year to see the running order, so thank you very much to Sand, EBU and DR for such a speedy release. I first saw the news on Ruth Lorenzo, Spain's entry, twitter, and couldn't fathom as to why noone else had reported on the running order for about 5 minutes...then realised I needed to update my twitter feed. The UK are to perform 26th and last...
My initial thought: well that's any chance of victory gone. My thought now: WE CAN DO THIS!
The best bit about the UK performing last is that 'Children of the Universe' has the potential to bring the house down! In reality, it's a producers dream because it can so easily finish the show. I guarantee that the UK was pencilled in to perform last since Molly grabbed that all important second half allocation. But what about the rest of the draw? Where does everyone stack up now?
Well Ukraine are opening the show. Hmmm... We could spend hours thinking about this, but if we just think about the song then surely we have a brilliant opener too. An attractive young girl with a modern and upbeat pop song, performed with a good looking man running in a hamster wheel. What a better way to open the show to fresh viewers! Looking down the running order and the producers have done a sterling job. Azerbaijan in 3rd...will they finish top 5 again this year? It looks certainly doubtful...early hot favourites Armenia are as early as 7th...not sure if that'll help them at all...Greece in 10th...Conchita will rock everyone for Austria in 11th...Sweden were given 13th, well we all expected that...the hot spots 16-22 give us Spain as potential contenders, but more importantly HUNGARY IN 21ST. Well surely we know we're all headed to Budapest in 2015? After that Denmark look good for at least top 10 in 23rd (but we all knew that anyway)...chart enthusiasts will be delighted with the Netherlands in 24th and so it looks good for them. San  Marino are in 25th, so at least we assured of Valentina Monetta not getting nil points. And then of course, the UK to close. As I just said, it looks very nice for Hungary to win...

The only people who still don't think Hungary could grab it are the bookmakers...oddschecker reports that many favourites are now drifting in the betting. You can get Hungary as high as 16-1 at 'bwin' which looks extremely tasty at the moment. Sweden currently lead, Austria have shortened to second, and the Netherlands look pretty in 3rd. As a Eurovision fan growing up in the 00s, I have to say that seeing those 3 as the top 3 seems absolutely bonkers, and the fact that Conchita Wurst is so hot to win is like winning in itself.

Below is the full draw for the final:

01 Ukraine
02 Belarus
03 Azerbaijan
04 Iceland
05 Norway
06 Romania
07 Armenia
08 Montenegro
09 Poland
10 Greece
11 Austria
12 Germany
13 Sweden
14 France
15 Russia
16 Italy
17 Slovenia
18 Finland
19 Spain
20 Switzerland
21 Hungary
22 Malta
23 Denmark
24 Netherlands
25 San Marino
26 United Kingdom


Good Luck to all performers in the final! A special Good Luck to Molly Smitten-Downes and the United Kingdom!

The final of the 59th Eurovision Song Contest will start in Copenhagen, Denmark at 21:00 CET, 20:00 BST on BBC1 for UK viewers.

Wednesday, 7 May 2014

Who will the UK give their 'douze' points to in SF2?

Okay so I am procrastinating again... Well Done Eurovision!

This blog post takes a different look...who will the United Kingdom give their points to in tomorrow night's semi final? This seems a slightly odd blog post, but keep reading folks and you'll see why...

So in tomorrow's semi final, we have:
Malta, Israel, Norway, Georgia, Poland, Austria, Lithuania, Finland, Ireland, Belarus, FYR Macedonia, Switzerland, Greece, Slovenia, and Romania.

NOW the UK's closest neighbour is Ireland, but will the UK give Ireland 12 points tomorrow night? I'd say that this year it really won't be as simple as that.
Other countries that the UK will give points to is: Malta, Lithuania, and Greece. I could guarantee you that the UK will also give something to Romania and probably Poland as well. Now I've already listed 7 countries with a high chance of getting points from the UK. In the past few years, the UK has also given points to those countries with a comical element for Brits: for example, Romania 2013, Moldova 2011 and so on. In this semi final, I'm convinced the UK will respond to Austria and Conchita Wurst - some finding it hilarious that there is a bearded lady representing us, some voting for who Conchita represents, and finally some because of the actual song (and let us not forget that she is singing a James Bond-esque ballad, a British icon). So that takes us to 8. Belarus also stand a good chance of a few comical votes, and Euro fanatics voting in the semi final will try to push Israel through. But then I look back to the list of competing countries and can see the UK also giving points to Norway, Finland and Switzerland. We tend to give points to the Swiss, so them too? And lest we forget the UK jury who could throw it all.

So have I sold the argument to you? Do you agree that the UK's votes are very hard to predict in this year's semi finals? Below is a prediction of where I see the United Kingdom's votes going this year:

UK votes for SF2?
12 - Ireland
10 - Lithuania
8 - Romania
7 - Malta
6 - Greece
5 - Austria
4 - Israel
3 - Poland
2 - Norway
1 - Switzerland

Monday, 5 May 2014

The Hottest Men of 2014

So here we go, a countdown of the hottest male stars of the Eurovision Song Contest 2014.


#5 - SEBalter (Switzerland)





#4 - Andras Kallay-Saunders (Hungary)





#3 - Riskykidd (Greece)





And now for second place... hold on! It's a tie. How could you separate them anyway? At #2 and #1 is FREAKY FORTUNE!








But let's have a serious conversation for a second... WHAT THE HELL EUROVISION? I mean last year was a pretty poor year by anyone's standards, but we still had the cheeky face of Gianluca (Malta), the soon to be buff Robin Stjerberg (Sweden) and the hunk that is Farid Mammadov (Azerbaijan). This year though. There were some 'goods' like TEO and SEBalter, the 'pretty goods' like Andras and Riskykidd, and the greats which are Freaky Fortune, but let's be real. Where's our Blue? Where's our Tim Schou? Where's Eric? Harel? Jedward? Alex Sparrow? I mean noone will ever top the almighty PASHA PARFENY, but most wont ever even come close to him. I expect better next year Eurovision. But still, for 2014, let's marvel at Nikolas and Theofilos, otherwise known as Freaky Fortune! Well Done Greece! Good Luck for the finals!




The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Part VIII - Belarus

Oh my god, it's tomorrow!
Tomorrow night, we will be half way through the first semi final. Who's going to qualify? I've made my predictions, which I will release in the near future, but for now, it's time to rap up "the good, the bad, and the ugly". Today, it's the turn of the ugly.


The Ugly - Belarus

"Cheesecake" - TEO

Sorry TEO, just sorry. TEO also just missed out on my countdown of the hottest men at this year's ESC (let's be real, he is rocking this Robin Thicke type image) but in my opinion, the song is just ugly. What defines 'Cheesecake' as ugly? Well, when it came to selecting songs which made 'the bad' list, I thought long and hard about which songs are 'bad' and which songs aren't necessarily 'bad', they're just 'ugly'. Whereas the vocals of Lithuania, the wailing of Georgia, and the flat Iceland all offer something for the 'bad' category, I actually feel 'Cheesecake' isn't like that. As mentioned, TEO has some sex appeal, the song has some alright lyrics and the composition isn't all that bad - so what makes the song so absurd? My answer is I don't know. It's not good, but it has all the elements to be a 'good-ish' song. Hence, this is why Belarus made this year's ugly category. I have listened to this song 3 times; once for the first listen, once out of pure choice, and once when watching how they've decided to stage it. Compare that to 'Children of the Universe' which just became my most ever song played on iTunes and that tells you how I feel about 'Cheesecake'. Comments anyone? Even I'm struggling to waffle on about 'Cheesecake'. Well Good Luck Belarus, Good Luck TEO! I'm out.

Monday, 28 April 2014

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Part VII - Lithuania, Georgia and Iceland

Today you lucky readers are treated to another edition of the Good, the Bad and the Ugly. I found it very hard to limit "the good" this year and went for a good mix of 6 entrants which can offer something different. But I found a similar problem in selecting "the bad"! In all fairness, there aren't many "bad" entries in the modern day contest, but some countries still offer us 'a load of tripe'. I've picked 3 candidates for that "bad" award which have split fans alike.


The Bad Part 7a - Lithuania

"Attention" - Vilija Matačiūnaitė

What on earth is this all about? Lithuania have an extremely clever knack of qualifying for the final of Eurovision - last year with singing shoes guy, the year before with Donny's quirky dance routine, and so on, and so on. So no matter what we all think of 'Attention', it will probably easily qualify, right? Well with friends like Belarus, Finland, Georgia, Ireland, and the United Kingdom all able to vote for Lithuania in the second semi final, I can see them qualifying despite this atrocity which is 'Attention'. I hate to sound so opaquely critical without providing sufficient reason as to why, but c'mon...!?!? I've got all of this year's songs on my iTunes; the country with the most plays is on 51, whereas Lithuania is second bottom with just 1 play. How I have sat and listened through this baffles me. From the horrific composition to the painful vocals, Lithuania for me have really tested how bad a Eurovision entry can truly be whilst still qualifying. And that's why for me, it is the worst song in this year's competition.



The Bad Part 7b - Georgia

"3 Minutes to Earth" - The Shin & Mariko

The winner of many fans least favourite song has been Georgia's '3 Minutes To Earth'. I can understand why; ethnic wailing with a poor lead female vocal isn't that appealing. I see it slightly differently in that there is that catchy lyric about skydivers and the opening couple of seconds sounds like it could be the start of a winning song (even though the start is lyrical, perhaps I'm still hungover from raving about Montenegro yesterday: all a direct result of that tin whistle from last year). But let's all be real for a minute here; what is with this Georgian entry? I am very appreciative of art, but the song needs to appeal to a certain market at Eurovision. Can somebody please tell me who the Shin and Mariko are aimed at? Middle-aged voters, teenagers, Southern Europe, the Balkans, who? Who on earth internally selected this? I'm listening to this again now, for the 5th time. Reiterating that it's not as bad as Lithuania because of that catchy skydivers lyric, but the composition of this is all over the place too. Were Georgia trying their hardest not to win?



The Bad Part 7c - Iceland

"No Prejudice" - Pollaponk

Now Iceland have got something really interesting here. When I first heard 'Enga Fordoma', I was like 'dear God, Iceland have finally let us all down'. After the successes of Yohanna, Sjonni's Friend, Jonsi, and especially the extremely underrated Eyþór Ingi Gunnlaugsson from last year, I was really keeping my fingers crosse Iceland would give us a winner this time around. Isn't it their turn as well? Finland '06, Norway '09, Sweden '12, Denmark '13... Perhaps we have to wait a couple of years. I do hope Iceland win soon though, I'd love to go there. But back to their song for this year, and I'd actually give the award to the country trying it's best not to win to Iceland (over Georgia). The overage band, the concoction of sounds, it's just one for turning off. But at heart they do have a good message, and nothing is better than a band with flair - Pollaponk's colours definitely offer something Bucks Fizz-esque. I would not say this is the worst song in the contest this year, but I've never liked this no matter how much I appreciate it, and I think deep down, most will agree.




So there we have it, Lithuania, Georgia and Iceland are my chosen 3 for "the bad". But there's still one category left unexplored: "the Ugly". I think people can take easy predictions from what I have already chosen. But please do comment and tell me if you agree!

Sunday, 27 April 2014

Part VI - Montenegro

The Good Part VI - Montenegro

'Moj Svijet' - Sergej Ćetković

The opening melody to this song is stunningly beautiful. The instrumental sections are very Zelijko Joksimovic and so ethnic that Montenegro can truly fly the flag for the whole of the former Yugoslavs this year! I think many were gutted to see Serbia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, and the like drop out, but in their absence, Montenegro can rise like a phoenix out of the ashes (as Conchita Wurst once sung). And I am so glad that the song is being sung in Montenegrin! With fewer and fewer countries opting to sing entirely in their own language, Montenegro have pulled though! So Podogorica 2015 anyone?

First off - the song has done poorly in online polls. Please can someone tell me why? I know many Eurofanatics who much prefer songs in the home country language, yet people seem to not really care when it comes to Moj Svijet. Perhaps it has ultimately come down to the amount of ballads entered this year; there are some very good ballads this year, such as 'Undo' and 'Dancing in the Rain'. Sergej has a winning card here though - a male ballad will stand out mountains against other female ballads. Montenegro do have that trickier first semi final, however they are the penultimate performers, and they really, really need to capitalise on this. Sergej has come out and said that he really wants Montenegro to reach the final. Well Sergej, if it was up to me, you'd easily make it. And I think Montenegro will make it.

Will they win?

Well I'm ever-increasingly being drawn to the fact that in such a wide open year, who wins will be decided on even the small things. Staging is going to be crucial! I won't look at staging plans and the lark before rehearsals start tomorrow, I want to base my ideas on song alone. The staging really needs to take an uplifting edge, and we definitely need falling sparks at some point - maybe even on the first key change. Oh yeah that's another thing about this song, it's key change heaven, which always goes down well at Eurovision! But back to the staging - it needs to be minimal. I've already made comparisons to Zelijko Joksimovic; Montenegro need to go back and see what worked for him in 2004 and 2012 and even directly copy it if they are so out of ideas.

What else will Montenegro need to win? A favourable draw in the final will be crucial this year and so naturally, anywhere in 16th to 24th (I think most fans agree with me that these 8 positions will be win-defining). The opening instrument needs to be as soft as Sergej's opening vocals; and Montenegro really need to ensure that Sergej's lyrics are heard above all else. That thing about language is coming up again... and it's because singing in your own language will help!

And what Montenegro really needed was a big PR campaign. I don't want this ethnic ballad to get lost like others have in the past. If televoters will really aware of the song before the competition, it would accompany what is sure to be a good jury score because of the simple fact that Sergej has an incredible voice! However, I don't think we need to be in fear of a lack of PR campaign - I think Montenegro will surely reach the final, but winning the thing is different. I don't think Montenegro can win, but I do hope they do bloody well. Good Luck! Good Luck Sergej!

Monday, 14 April 2014

Part IV - Armenia

Ah I cannot believe my last blog post was 11 days ago! Time has been going by mega quickly, and we are now only 22 days away from the first semi final. Eurovision Season goes much too quickly for my liking! I've been listening to loads of classics recently, as well as my new favourite song 'Rainmaker'. If you haven't heard, it's Emmelie de Forest's new song and it's amazing. I have planned a blog post dedicated to out hosts for closer to the first semi final, but tonight the attention is on Armenia!


The Good Part IV: Armenia

Armenia have a very good record at Eurovision! Up until 2010 the Armenians could be compared to how we see the Azeri now - not just a certainty for the final, but a top 10 finish as well. And they surely deserved that reputation! Many fans argue that Qele Qele should have taken home the crown in 2008, Apricot Stone deserved higher than 7th in 2010, and one of my favourite ever songs in the contest, Nor Par (Jan Jan) scraped 10th in the 2009 contest. Inga & Anush are two of my favourite Eurovision artists and I absolutely love them - and their performance was brilliant. Truly Eurovision. Since then things have gone a little downhill. Emmy and 'Boom Boom' embarrassingly didn't even make the final in 2011 (even though we're all still going 'chaka chaka'), and following a boycott of Baku 2012, they sent a fan dividing song in 2013, 'Lonely Planet', which still somehow managed to accumulate 41 points when many thought it wouldn't even make the final. BUT many, many fans argue that Armenia are back to their best this year! And rightfully so, the artist is Aram MP3 and the song is 'Not Alone' - scoring top 5 in many pre-charts and for a long time, being the red hot favourite by the bookmakers (check out ESC Webs 'here' for a bookies update). So what makes Aram MP3 and 'Not Alone' so great?

To begin with, 'Not Alone' is one of those defining era songs - by this, I don't mean it's a classic, but I mean that from the first listen, you know it's around a 2013/14 song without hearing the other songs entered. I think it's very good because the composition is simple, the lyrics are direct and it breaks away in the middle to become more upbeat. Usually this results in disaster; fans don't like two songs in one, but it works in 'Not Alone' because the upbeat section still fits in with the lyrics and the early melody. I almost feel the first half of the song has a Zelijko Joksimovic feel about it, and we all know how well Serbia (& Montenegro) have done under him. How the song does at Eurovision will be extremely interesting - fans like this song across Europe - it's not necessarily their favourite song, but it's in many people's top 10's. I argue that the result of this will be interesting because it could easily divide your less dedicated audience: people who have never heard of this before may be put off by the sudden change in direction, and an older audience may be put off when the beat drops. Additionally, many first-time listeners often decide whether they like a song within the first minute or two; if they enjoy the ballad section then good, but if not, then very bad because what would rescue those voters is a fantastic staging, and in my opinion, Aram MP3 won't provide the best choreographed performance. How this is staged will pose problems; it could be quite boring if it's just Aram MP3 on stage, but tacky dancers, I feel, would ruin any magic created in the lyrics when the beat drops.

And then there's what happened at 'Eurovision In Concert' - if you missed that, where have you been!? If you missed that, then here's a quick summary: some potentially homophobic puns were made by Aram MP3 to Conchita Wurst, the infamous bearded lady representing Austria this year. Wiwi blogs covered the basics in this article. In my opinion everything got taken out of context, but then again, Aram should not have made a possibly homophobic remark to a contest with an extremely large LGBT fanbase, especially in the year we go back to Denmark, the first country in the world to legalise gay marriage. Will any of this matter come May? It's hard to say because a lot of voters will not be aware of what happened, but to get booed at Eurovision In Concert (incidentally the same day as Aram's birthday!) speaks volumes in his current fan status - and this is only an estimate, but aren't a lot of semi-final voters mostly the mega fans? In the UK they are anyway, and so alongside being drawn 1st in the hotly contested first semi final could prove to be problematic. However, friends Ukraine and Russia also compete in semi 1, being drawn 1st in the semi final hasn't stopped popular songs from reaching the final before, and at the end of the day, it's still a very good song! People questioning whether this will qualify is crazy - of course it will! But where this finishes in the final is impossible to tell...

My prediction is top 10. As a UK fan that may be optimistic - for Armenia are definitely big rivals for the top crown, and so it will probably challenge 1st. BUT... will I get in trouble for saying that if the Azeri's do bribe voters and jurors like some argue, then will Armenia even do top 10? Azerbaijan and Armenia aren't friends. Or is that a ludicrous thing to say? Please do share your opinions on the matter!

Good Luck Armenia! I'm glad to see your back to entering good records and back on track to taking the contest to Yerevan! Good Luck Aram MP3!


Thursday, 3 April 2014

Part III - Romania

The Good Part III: Romania

We've got another edition of the good, the bad and the ugly today, with Romania taking the spotlight as the next "good".

'Miracle' by Paula Seling & Ovi

Oooooft. Eurodance stomper 'Miracle' really has got it what it takes to do well for Romania at this year's Eurovision. From the very first line to the end, the song feels like it is taking you on the journey. Well that's how I see it anyway. The fast pace continually picks up and does what it is supposed to do! It doesn't stop, and you can picture the lights and the fireworks already. What is great about this song is that it also feels a lot quicker than 3 minutes. By this I refer to the fact that with a ballad, you often feel the length of a song, whereas this song seems to happen in a heartbeat. Coupling that with the staging, and this year's Romanian entry will definitely get the crowd on their feet, whether they like the song or not. Romania also provide much needed pain relief for that ballad headache as well, and so this one will stick out like a sore thumb.

But I haven't mentioned the best bit... the return of Paula Seling & Ovi! Fans alike will remember their terrific 3rd back in the 2010 contest when 'Playing with Fire' finished strong, nearly going on to topple Turkey into 2nd place. That year was rightfully stolen by Lena and 'Satellite', but if the Germans hadn't turned up, would Romania have walked away with the grand prize? Quite potentially. But that's neither here nor there, the best thing is that the duo are back to try again. Since performing for Romania in 2010, Paula Seling has continued to grow as a national celebrity, with X Factor judging credentials and various work with films, including Cars 2 and Brave. Ovi has also been working hard, especially with Eurovision. He teamed up with the almighty Thomas G:Son in 2012 to have a crack at composing a winner, however this turned out not to be. But what can be seen is that by pairing up with Paula once again, Romania stand a cracking shot at success with name recognition alone.

What about the statistics? Well Romania have never failed to qualify for the final - they have 100% success rate in the semi-finals. In the finals, the last few years have seen varied success, but on the whole, they do fairly well, and I think with such a strong entry, predicting Romania to finish in the top 10 is a good estimate. I think what works well is that the whole package is there; they have a good song, they have respected and much-loved artists, Romania has many friends both neighbourly and culturally, and they have got luck on their side in that if they perform first or last they have something memorable.

So, could they win? I really don't see why not. I really don't know why they wouldn't win. If we're heavily critical, then the song isn't fantastic. The song also will need some choreography; I don't doubt that Romania will have good staging, but because of the nature of the song, there will need to be dancers or at least something happening in the chorus - if there's not, then the sheer power of Paula and Ovi's voices will ensure the juries mark highly, but will the televoters? See, without "something" I can't see televoters across Europe picking this over other favourites, even if Romania can rely on a few votes from the likes of Ukraine and Moldova - diaspora does not win Eurovision! Chances of winning? High, but perhaps not high enough...

Whatever the case, I like the song! It is performing okay in online fan polls and I'm yet to see anyone disregard Romania. The odds are pretty good for Romania, they're not down as a favourite, but I think if we were to predict this year's "dark horse" then Romania stand a pretty good shot at that.

Good Luck Romania! Good Luck Paula & Ovi! We look forward to seeing you in the final on the 10th May!

Monday, 31 March 2014

Part II - Sweden

The Good Part II: Sweden

Welcome to the second edition of the Good, the Bad and the Ugly. Today's post is another "good" and this time it's Sweden!

'Undo' by Sanna Nielsen

Sweden have one of the best records in the Eurovision Song Contest, and rightfully so. Last year I blogged a history of Swedish winners in the contest following Loreen's euphoric triumph in 2012. If you missed that, you can read it here. Sweden have won at pivotal points of the Eurovision Song Contest, could they be on for win number 6? Polls and odds indicate that Sweden 2015 is very possible - and with 2015 being the 60th edition of the contest, the winner of this year's contest is 'pivotal'. It seems to all point in Sweden's favour.

So what of the song? Well 'Undo' is a classy ballad. A beautiful melody starts the song before Sanna's soft lyrics ease into the song. The first verse builds to a gentle first chorus, juxtaposing the tragedy for which Sanna sings about. By the time the beat kicks in on the second verse, Sanna's voice begins to strengthen and leads to a big second chorus. All the while, the song is just beautiful: the composition, lyrics, everything, just works. Sanna Nielsen adds that necessary elegance, and you feel the emotion channelled through her voice. As well as that, if her Eurovision performance is anything like her Melodifestivalen performance then the choreography will be perfect; no cheap gimmicks, just the right lighting - a cold, yet soulful blue. It's a recipe for success.

But there's just one thing hanging over me - in my opinion, something is missing. I think this song is very, very good, I've almost played it too much over the last 2 months, and I just think there's not a "winning factor" about it. I could easily see this song finishing in the top 10, potentially top 3, but not winning. I speak brutally honest, and I appreciate the fact that many will disagree with me. Over on ESC Stats, Sweden dominate the current poll, and they come a very close second on ESC Nation - I don't deny its a good song, I just can't see this winning. I have this horrible feeling that if this was to win, people would vote for it in polls such as "worst winner", for which it just doesn't deserve (in my opinion that crown could rightfully go to many countries: Latvia's win in 2002 still baffles me for example).

Additionally, it's another ballad, for which we are not short of this year. Being female does help, since 2004, 6 of the last 10 winners have been solo females, and in fact there have been more solo female winners than males or groups who have won the contest since Lys Assia's win for Switzerland at the first contest in 1956. But because of the ballad pile up this year, although not admittedly on the same scale as the fiasco that was 2012, we can pretty much guess that the draw for the final will play a strategic role in who wins the contest. For example, another popular female ballad is the UK's 'Children of the Universe' by Molly, which probably won't finish higher than Sweden if the Swedes perform last and the UK performs first. Therefore, it's all to play for. Sanna has been dealt position 4 in the hot first semi-final. Not ideal, but recent patterns suggest that performing 4th makes you at no great a disadvantage than performing last.

Could Sanna Nielsen do it? Could we be going back to Sweden once more? Let's be honest, it would be nice to go somewhere hot for Eurovision once again, but we all miss Petra Mede's hosting so it wouldn't be so bad. And plus, Sweden is a fantastic country.

Good Luck Sanna! Good Luck Sweden!




I leave you with this gem from the Greek entrant Freaky Fortune & RiskyKidd - it's a medley of the last few winners, although the seem to missed out 'Molitva'. Perhaps singing in Serbian was a bit too much for them, but nevermind, this still is pretty good. Could 'Undo' be mixed into another medley next year?


Tuesday, 25 March 2014

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Part 1 - Hungary

Another week has past and it's been another exciting week of Eurovision madness! From allegations over corruption at Portugal's National Final, to the sudden rush of online polls, Eurovision In Concert line-up announcements, more debate over Russia, and finally the all important semi-final draw. In my opinion, the contest can be won by the song alone, but more often than not, the occasional exogenous factor will come into play, whether that be from artist promotion to favourable odds. Therefore, I shall be doing song reviews once more. I'll review the good songs this year, the bad songs this year, and that odd one or two which more often than not pop up. To begin, I'll look at "The Good".


And so, welcome to the first edition of this year's "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly"!


The Good Part I: Hungary

Hungary - 'Running' by Andras Kallay-Saunders

My Birthday falls on February 21st and that usually coincides with the start of my Eurovision season. By this, I refer to the fact that national finals have already taken place, some country's selecting as early as December, but my own interest won't kick off till around the end of February. But in all fairness, the end of February/start of March usually brings with it a rush of 'Eurovisioning' across the EBU nations. I remember hearing 'Running' as Hungary's selection around about the time of my birthday and thinking "This is the winner". Since then, my opinion on the song has changed, and lots more countries have released their songs, but when it comes down to the final, a lot of televoters are hearing the song for the first time. If they get the same first impression that I did then perhaps Hungary are on the way to victory! And they surely deserve it! Fans alike will remember Frederika from the 90s, 'Unsubstantial Blues' from '07, and the casualty that was Kati Wolf and 'What About My Dreams?' back in 2011. That fan favourite had an almighty flop in the final. Recent history has shown that Hungarians are very serious about the contest and they enter a good standard of song. I personally see 'Running' as no different to this, with an emotional tale of young girl suffering from abuse. The artist delivers an emotional connection to the song, and as well as that, the composition has broad appeal. Lyrically, the song delivers on a simplistic chorus and an explicit verse, but some have argued that the melody and lyrics don't go together, perhaps maybe too opposing for a Eurovision audience to grapple. However, I argue that Hungary have got a recipe for success with this song; and let's not forget the artist himself. Andras comes from a musical family, as well as the fact that he is a national popstar in Hungary. With chart-topping hits and a celeb status in his own right, Andras has the experience to succeed in Copenhagen. And he is a pretty good-looking chap, something which always goes down well with Eurovision fans (e.g. Farid Mammadov). The turn of the millennium saw many first-time winners, maybe it's time for Hungary to taste some of that success. Good Luck to Andras and 'Running' in May, and Good Luck to Hungary! Budapest 2015 anyone?


Tuesday, 18 March 2014

"Back in the USSR"

So with the long anticipated release of Austria's song, 'Rise Like A Phoenix' by Conchita Wust, it means we are still waiting for Russia. The Tomalchevy Twins will sing 'Shine', but they are still yet to premiere the song, despite a promise by eurovision.tv that it would be up yesterday. Russia will be of much interest at this year's Eurovision following their current performance on the global stage. And so I ask...who is going to give Russia points at the contest in May?

First off, let's mention their new anti-gay legislation. Everyone reading this will know all about Russia's interesting ("backwards") law against informing under-18's about homosexuality. If you don't, then it's brilliant explained by Grekov (2013) here.  This is going to have very interesting implications for Eurovision - a competition striving to break free of politics and political stigma. For a start, Eurovision has an extremely large LGBT fanbase, all of whom are not the best fans of Putin at the moment. Countries like the UK will not vote in favour of Russia this year. Despite the best efforts of EBU, politics will play a role in voting patterns like this. The UK gave 10 points to Russia last year, and they were a well deserved 10 points, 'What If' is a beautiful song, but I can't see many picking up the phone to vote for Russia even if they do have a stormer. It's sad really.

And then there's Crimea. The current war has reintroduced many of the old east vs west tensions which we all thought were slowly coming to an end in this ever-increasing globalized world. Again, if you're under-read on the topic, the BBC does explain it pretty well here. Ukraine's voting will be of much interest here - with the nation divided in political turmoil, I hardly see the voting system going un-rigged. Once more, it's really quite sad. But nonetheless, very interesting. Will Ukraine give points to Russia? As I've already established, the facts are that politics will once again play an unhealthy role in deciding the outcome of the result. And then there are the juries - what pressure the juries will be under from Ukraine!? Without doubt they will be heavily burdened by Ukrainian officials, and they will almost very likely be bribed by both Russia and their own political leaders. It seems very apparent that Russia will be marked 1st from the Ukrainian jury - whether or not this results in douze points is a different matter. This flows in nicely to my next point: the juries and the rest of the USSR.

Russia has fortunately many borders - this means that they share much of their culture with a great number of countries. This is especially the case since the fact that many of Russia's closest friends in the contest are former Soviet states. I'm not saying that diaspora voting has been free of politics, especially in the 00s, but the 10s are a new decade, where the right songs have generally done the best. Culturally, Russia has done well from Armenia, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and so forth - all former Soviet states (statistics thanks to ESC Stats - don't forget to vote in their poll!). Where these countries vote in the contest will be of much interest; will countries vote in favour of Russia for fear, in Ukraine for support, or boycott voting for them in protest against Crimean invasion? Additionally, Azerbaijan didn't give Russia any points last year, sparking discussion amongst fans and Azeri officials as to why. The officials were not too impressed by their jury, and this could potentially lead to an unfair swing in favour of Russia at this year's contest by the Azeri jury among others. And we all know how corrupt Azerbaijan's voting has been criticised of in the past, most notably in last year's contest with allegations of paying students to vote for them. The former states of the Soviet Union have a decision to make, and although I initially thought that Russia would do top 3 however poor the song, I am reminded by the consequences of the Iraq invasion by the United Kingdom at the 2003 contest. It was not only the first time the UK finished last, but also the first time we received the old 'nul' points. Quite remarkable considering how a mere 6 years earlier we dominated the contest. Russia's invasion of Crimea will not go down well with the olden Eurovision countries in the west, but the reaction of the former USSR states will speak volumes about how many states view the Russian situation.

It's a sad year for the Eurovision Song Contest - politics will once again become a central issue for the voting and the EBU will undoubtedly be left with quite a headache after the competition has ended. With no country currently hot favourites to win, the contest is wide open; the bookmakers have gone with Armenia, I've seen polls ranking favourites from Hungary to Romania, the UK to Norway, and history tells us that in a year as wide open as this, the draw will become pivotal in deciding the winner. I still stand by the fact that if Azerbaijan and Sweden swapped places in the 2011 draw then Eric Saade would have walked away with the prize instead. If Russia get a favourable draw many will argue corruption and bribery - if Russia get a poor draw many will argue there's political motivation behind their placing. If Russia were to win - well let's cross that bridge in the small chance it'll happen.

But let's not forget that it is the Eurovision SONG contest!

Russia's representatives are the Tomalchevy twins. They are proven performers having won the 2006 Junior Eurovision Song Contest (you can view the video here). Since winning the contest they have gone on to make a name for themselves in the Eastern region of Europe - and people do vote for big names they recognise (forget has been Engelbert Humperdinck, I'm talking about the likes of Kaliopi - FYR Macedonia; Zelijko Joksimovic - Serbia; Patricia Kaas - France) and so when people do vote, they will remember the twins. The chances are that the song will be good as well. Russia have given us some great Eurovision tracks in the last decade and I see this year as no different despite what is happening on the political stage. However, the fact that there is so much speculation about how well Russia do, and who gives them points, indicates the precarious position of the contest this year. Perhaps I am overstating the problem, feel free to share your opinions and comments! Much discussion is very welcome.


Note: the success of the Winter Olympics in Sochi will still be in the minds of televoters and jurors alike - this is likely to play a part but I think the LGBT laws and Crimean invasion are of more pressing points.