Okay so I am procrastinating again... Well Done Eurovision!
This blog post takes a different look...who will the United Kingdom give their points to in tomorrow night's semi final? This seems a slightly odd blog post, but keep reading folks and you'll see why...
So in tomorrow's semi final, we have:
Malta, Israel, Norway, Georgia, Poland, Austria, Lithuania, Finland, Ireland, Belarus, FYR Macedonia, Switzerland, Greece, Slovenia, and Romania.
NOW the UK's closest neighbour is Ireland, but will the UK give Ireland 12 points tomorrow night? I'd say that this year it really won't be as simple as that.
Other countries that the UK will give points to is: Malta, Lithuania, and Greece. I could guarantee you that the UK will also give something to Romania and probably Poland as well. Now I've already listed 7 countries with a high chance of getting points from the UK. In the past few years, the UK has also given points to those countries with a comical element for Brits: for example, Romania 2013, Moldova 2011 and so on. In this semi final, I'm convinced the UK will respond to Austria and Conchita Wurst - some finding it hilarious that there is a bearded lady representing us, some voting for who Conchita represents, and finally some because of the actual song (and let us not forget that she is singing a James Bond-esque ballad, a British icon). So that takes us to 8. Belarus also stand a good chance of a few comical votes, and Euro fanatics voting in the semi final will try to push Israel through. But then I look back to the list of competing countries and can see the UK also giving points to Norway, Finland and Switzerland. We tend to give points to the Swiss, so them too? And lest we forget the UK jury who could throw it all.
So have I sold the argument to you? Do you agree that the UK's votes are very hard to predict in this year's semi finals? Below is a prediction of where I see the United Kingdom's votes going this year:
UK votes for SF2?
12 - Ireland
10 - Lithuania
8 - Romania
7 - Malta
6 - Greece
5 - Austria
4 - Israel
3 - Poland
2 - Norway
1 - Switzerland
Showing posts with label norway. Show all posts
Showing posts with label norway. Show all posts
Wednesday, 7 May 2014
Wednesday, 12 March 2014
"What's worth doing is worth doing for money"
"What's worth doing is worth doing for money" - Michael Douglas in 'Wall Street' (1987).
Ever noticed how the odds offered for Eurovision reflect the polls? Years like 2011 offer a headache to bookmakers but they somehow still manage to pull it right out of the bag - about an hour before the final kicked off, the odds for 'Running Scared' from Azerbaijan shortened enough to make them hot favourites. I re-blogged an article from ESC Nation (http://www.escnation.com) last year about where the best odds could be found to really win some decent money. With some countries still left to release their songs, and the online polls yet to take off, perhaps it is times like this to have a look at the odds...
By using the site 'Odds Checker' (http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner) it is possible to see which countries are currently pre-Eurovision favourites.
At the time of posting (roughly 12pm GMT) Norway are current favourites. They have odds as low as 7/4 without even confirming their winner. Azerbaijan, the undisputed strongest nation in the contest from the last 5 years, have given us their artist, but you can still find them sitting 3rd in the list with odds ranging from 7/1 to 9/1. We all know that Azerbaijan will come out with a stormer and the fact that they have friends across the whole of Europe means even if they come out with utter dribble, they are likely to find themselves in the final whatever. Long-time friends like Malta and the cluster that sit around the black sea will always ensure their continued success as long as it's something good. That's not to say I'm against diaspora voting, it's been happening in the contest for decades - there's a reason why the UK and Ireland have always shared the points, while the same remains for the Scandinavian block, the ex-Yugoslavs, the former Soviet countries, and so on and so on. They share culture!
So what about pre-contest poll favourites?
Well the polls are still in the early stages. Without all the songs yet entered this year some sites won't even bother allowing for polls as they mean little without everyone. One of my favourite sites for polls and statistics is the one carried out by ESC Stats (www.escstats.com). Current leaders are Hungary, and it cannot be denied that 'Running' is a very good track. Perhaps the best offer of 14/1 at current are cracking odds. And what about Paula Selling & Ovi, who when they last competed for Romania came 3rd. They're back again with 'Miracle' and again, it's a good track. You can find them at 11/1 if you fancy it. How about the UK? 'Children of the Universe' has so far thrown everyone by surprise - the UK might really have something going this year. At 14/1 to take the crown - are these bad odds for a country with a recent history boasting quite a few bottom 5 finishings? Greece rounded up their final last night by selecting 'Rise Up' by Freaky Fortune ft. RiskyKidd. Greece are renowned for storming the top 10, and undoubtedly are one of the best nations of the 00s. At the bottom of the pile is Belarus with 'Cheesecake' - which you can currently get for 150/1. Belarus don't have the best record in Eurovision - and 'Cheesecake' certainly isn't great either. But hey ho, could be worth a crack.
Keep an eye on the odds. Have a look at what different things you can bet on. San Marino or Montenegro to qualify will probably be worth a bet or 2, and how about who to make the top 10? It sounds quite an obvious one, but Malta were offered very nice offers last year to make the top 10 with Gianluca's 'Tomorrow', and those who predicted Anouk's 'Birds' for the Netherlands to make the top 10 quite early on in the Eurovision season also saw a nice return on the money.
It won't be surprising to hear that the odds change all the time. Once all the countries have released their songs, and the polls take off, and semi final places are decided, the odds will change, potentially dramatically. I think the overall theme of the contest this year is that there isn't one song setting the world on fire. If we have another year like 2011 then the odds could be quite fun!
Remember folks; take gambling seriously!
And on one final note... the odds don't really make up that much part of Eurovision. If you like a bet then have a crack, but don't take them too seriously. I always feel too much attention is placed on what the bookmakers are doing, but in reality it's a never-ending cycle. Some Eurofans argue that the odds have ruined previous years contest and have made the final result inevitable. I say bollocks. It's the super keen fans like ourselves which define the odds by obsessing over the polls. And to that I say "whoops". But hey, what would the Eurovision season be without a bit of friendly debate, endless stats, and the opinions of a nobody like myself?
Catch me on Twitter: @escunofficial
Ever noticed how the odds offered for Eurovision reflect the polls? Years like 2011 offer a headache to bookmakers but they somehow still manage to pull it right out of the bag - about an hour before the final kicked off, the odds for 'Running Scared' from Azerbaijan shortened enough to make them hot favourites. I re-blogged an article from ESC Nation (http://www.escnation.com) last year about where the best odds could be found to really win some decent money. With some countries still left to release their songs, and the online polls yet to take off, perhaps it is times like this to have a look at the odds...
By using the site 'Odds Checker' (http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner) it is possible to see which countries are currently pre-Eurovision favourites.
At the time of posting (roughly 12pm GMT) Norway are current favourites. They have odds as low as 7/4 without even confirming their winner. Azerbaijan, the undisputed strongest nation in the contest from the last 5 years, have given us their artist, but you can still find them sitting 3rd in the list with odds ranging from 7/1 to 9/1. We all know that Azerbaijan will come out with a stormer and the fact that they have friends across the whole of Europe means even if they come out with utter dribble, they are likely to find themselves in the final whatever. Long-time friends like Malta and the cluster that sit around the black sea will always ensure their continued success as long as it's something good. That's not to say I'm against diaspora voting, it's been happening in the contest for decades - there's a reason why the UK and Ireland have always shared the points, while the same remains for the Scandinavian block, the ex-Yugoslavs, the former Soviet countries, and so on and so on. They share culture!
So what about pre-contest poll favourites?
Well the polls are still in the early stages. Without all the songs yet entered this year some sites won't even bother allowing for polls as they mean little without everyone. One of my favourite sites for polls and statistics is the one carried out by ESC Stats (www.escstats.com). Current leaders are Hungary, and it cannot be denied that 'Running' is a very good track. Perhaps the best offer of 14/1 at current are cracking odds. And what about Paula Selling & Ovi, who when they last competed for Romania came 3rd. They're back again with 'Miracle' and again, it's a good track. You can find them at 11/1 if you fancy it. How about the UK? 'Children of the Universe' has so far thrown everyone by surprise - the UK might really have something going this year. At 14/1 to take the crown - are these bad odds for a country with a recent history boasting quite a few bottom 5 finishings? Greece rounded up their final last night by selecting 'Rise Up' by Freaky Fortune ft. RiskyKidd. Greece are renowned for storming the top 10, and undoubtedly are one of the best nations of the 00s. At the bottom of the pile is Belarus with 'Cheesecake' - which you can currently get for 150/1. Belarus don't have the best record in Eurovision - and 'Cheesecake' certainly isn't great either. But hey ho, could be worth a crack.
Keep an eye on the odds. Have a look at what different things you can bet on. San Marino or Montenegro to qualify will probably be worth a bet or 2, and how about who to make the top 10? It sounds quite an obvious one, but Malta were offered very nice offers last year to make the top 10 with Gianluca's 'Tomorrow', and those who predicted Anouk's 'Birds' for the Netherlands to make the top 10 quite early on in the Eurovision season also saw a nice return on the money.
It won't be surprising to hear that the odds change all the time. Once all the countries have released their songs, and the polls take off, and semi final places are decided, the odds will change, potentially dramatically. I think the overall theme of the contest this year is that there isn't one song setting the world on fire. If we have another year like 2011 then the odds could be quite fun!
Remember folks; take gambling seriously!
And on one final note... the odds don't really make up that much part of Eurovision. If you like a bet then have a crack, but don't take them too seriously. I always feel too much attention is placed on what the bookmakers are doing, but in reality it's a never-ending cycle. Some Eurofans argue that the odds have ruined previous years contest and have made the final result inevitable. I say bollocks. It's the super keen fans like ourselves which define the odds by obsessing over the polls. And to that I say "whoops". But hey, what would the Eurovision season be without a bit of friendly debate, endless stats, and the opinions of a nobody like myself?
Catch me on Twitter: @escunofficial
Thursday, 16 May 2013
Why tonight won't be the Eurovision Shock Contest.
5 hours to go!
Who was shocked or surprised by the results of the first semi final? I'm still reading about the impact of no former Yugoslav countries making it and quite frankly it's getting quite boring. You should read this post because that makes complete sense of it all.
What I learned from the first semi final though is that we shouldn't expect any shocks tonight - just read on to see why.
1 Latvia - this hasn't been a fan favourite and noone is rating it in Malmo. But wasn't everybody saying the exact same about Lithuania? And before we all even went to Malmo, I'm pretty sure everyone had written Belgium off as well. And look what happened - they both qualified! I'm not saying this is certain to qualify, but if the Latvians sneak into the final will you really be that shocked because of what happened on Tuesday?
2 San Marino - undoubtedly San Marino's best ever entry. A Eurofans favourite, a surprise to those non-hardcore fans, and it has some Ralph Siegel magic. Not a shock qualifier.
3 FYR Macedonia - okay this song I think will provide one of the bigger shocks if it qualifies. BUT, Esma and Lozano have great contrasting voices, and Esma is a gimmick herself. Not as much of a shock as first thought.
4 Azerbaijan - Fit Farid with a smooth and sensual song. Going through.
5 Finland - well Krista brings to the stage a completely different energy to Farid and that will pay off. The song is really "pop" and with some crazy costumes and gimmicks this does work. Plus the song is the catchiest of the lot so far - people will remember ding dong when the lines open. OH and let's not forget the kiss. That'll cost and reward points. Won't be a shock if it qualifies, same said for if it doesn't qualify.
6 Malta - Tomorrow follows really well after Finland and there is always a market for this kind of song.
7 Bulgaria - Really won't shock me if this qualifies. Elitsa and Stoyan bring to the table the most unique song in this year's Eurovision Song Contest. And I am including the likes of Montenegro and the Netherlands when I say that. Samo Shampioni is a bit rubbish if we're all honest. But its Elitsa and Stoyan! They took Water to 5th a couple of years ago - yes it was a better song, but just think of the energy they bring to the stage. This performance will completely stand out and so you can't be shocked if this qualifies.
8 Iceland - dreadful but it's Iceland. Always loved the Icelandic entry and think it would be really interesting to go there one day. The song is apparently coming across very well, it'll stand out very nicely after Bulgaria, but it's not that great a song so I won't be shocked if this does qualify, but then because of all the above, won't be shocked if it does qualify.
9 Greece - stand out, bonkers, fun, Greek. Say no more?
10 Israel - Lynda Woodruff will really bring it home for the Israelis. I think more a jury vote than televote, but what does it matter?
11 Armenia - I think the Eurofans have forgotten about this completely. It's a cute little number with a really nice theme. And it's Armenian. You can't be shocked to see Armenia in the final.
12 Hungary - This one is pretty unique. And it seems lots of people like it. If Sound Of Our Hearts can bloody make it then so can Kedvesem.
13 Norway - This song is absolutely TERRIBLE. Eurofans are going weak at the knees and claiming this is the song of the contest, the performance of the contest. Are we listening to the same song? Are we watching the same rehearsals? Am I the only person that HATES this? I grew tired of Denmark, and who isn't growing tired of Denmark?, but this I've never really appreciated and have reached the point of complete detestation. Last year, I was critical of Euphoria because I thought people were getting too blind of what else was in the competition. 2012 was a very strong year, almost on the same par as 2009, but at the end of the day, it's easy to see why Euphoria is such a good song. It is NOT easy to see why I Feed You My Love is good in any way now. This will sail through, unfortunately, but if it doesn't go through, I won't be shocked (unlike every single blogger out there).
14 Albania - now this is better. Okay, it's still not good, but we're nearing the end and a bit of Albanian Rock might come across quite nicely to neighbours.
15 Georgia - ticks all the boxes. The song is really wet (no pun on 'Waterfall' I might add) but I like it and I think a lot of others do. Nobody really loves it so it won't win but with a lot of friends in this semi, I'm sure Georgia will go through. If it doesn't, well it is pretty wet.
16 Switzerland - final rock song of the night. Clear message, nicely done, fans like it, you can't be shocked to see this qualify.
17 Romania - the most memorable of the night because of the scary high notes element. Doesn't need to go last to be remembered, but will people have already chosen their favourite? I won't be shocked it this qualifies because it is something different, but then it is hurrendous so won't be shocked if it doesn't.
SO I hope I have proved my point - no matter who qualifies and who doesn't, we can't truly be shocked by anything this evening. Apart from Petra Mede's hosting, that's pretty shocking. Personally, I'm looking forward to Lynda Woodruff's latest episode on her tour of Sweden (not her performance for Israel). I can't vote because I live in the UK so I urge you to vote San Marino please. COME ON SAN MARINO!
Good luck to all contestants tonight! (even you Margaret).
Who was shocked or surprised by the results of the first semi final? I'm still reading about the impact of no former Yugoslav countries making it and quite frankly it's getting quite boring. You should read this post because that makes complete sense of it all.
What I learned from the first semi final though is that we shouldn't expect any shocks tonight - just read on to see why.
1 Latvia - this hasn't been a fan favourite and noone is rating it in Malmo. But wasn't everybody saying the exact same about Lithuania? And before we all even went to Malmo, I'm pretty sure everyone had written Belgium off as well. And look what happened - they both qualified! I'm not saying this is certain to qualify, but if the Latvians sneak into the final will you really be that shocked because of what happened on Tuesday?
2 San Marino - undoubtedly San Marino's best ever entry. A Eurofans favourite, a surprise to those non-hardcore fans, and it has some Ralph Siegel magic. Not a shock qualifier.
3 FYR Macedonia - okay this song I think will provide one of the bigger shocks if it qualifies. BUT, Esma and Lozano have great contrasting voices, and Esma is a gimmick herself. Not as much of a shock as first thought.
4 Azerbaijan - Fit Farid with a smooth and sensual song. Going through.
5 Finland - well Krista brings to the stage a completely different energy to Farid and that will pay off. The song is really "pop" and with some crazy costumes and gimmicks this does work. Plus the song is the catchiest of the lot so far - people will remember ding dong when the lines open. OH and let's not forget the kiss. That'll cost and reward points. Won't be a shock if it qualifies, same said for if it doesn't qualify.
6 Malta - Tomorrow follows really well after Finland and there is always a market for this kind of song.
7 Bulgaria - Really won't shock me if this qualifies. Elitsa and Stoyan bring to the table the most unique song in this year's Eurovision Song Contest. And I am including the likes of Montenegro and the Netherlands when I say that. Samo Shampioni is a bit rubbish if we're all honest. But its Elitsa and Stoyan! They took Water to 5th a couple of years ago - yes it was a better song, but just think of the energy they bring to the stage. This performance will completely stand out and so you can't be shocked if this qualifies.
8 Iceland - dreadful but it's Iceland. Always loved the Icelandic entry and think it would be really interesting to go there one day. The song is apparently coming across very well, it'll stand out very nicely after Bulgaria, but it's not that great a song so I won't be shocked if this does qualify, but then because of all the above, won't be shocked if it does qualify.
9 Greece - stand out, bonkers, fun, Greek. Say no more?
10 Israel - Lynda Woodruff will really bring it home for the Israelis. I think more a jury vote than televote, but what does it matter?
11 Armenia - I think the Eurofans have forgotten about this completely. It's a cute little number with a really nice theme. And it's Armenian. You can't be shocked to see Armenia in the final.
12 Hungary - This one is pretty unique. And it seems lots of people like it. If Sound Of Our Hearts can bloody make it then so can Kedvesem.
13 Norway - This song is absolutely TERRIBLE. Eurofans are going weak at the knees and claiming this is the song of the contest, the performance of the contest. Are we listening to the same song? Are we watching the same rehearsals? Am I the only person that HATES this? I grew tired of Denmark, and who isn't growing tired of Denmark?, but this I've never really appreciated and have reached the point of complete detestation. Last year, I was critical of Euphoria because I thought people were getting too blind of what else was in the competition. 2012 was a very strong year, almost on the same par as 2009, but at the end of the day, it's easy to see why Euphoria is such a good song. It is NOT easy to see why I Feed You My Love is good in any way now. This will sail through, unfortunately, but if it doesn't go through, I won't be shocked (unlike every single blogger out there).
14 Albania - now this is better. Okay, it's still not good, but we're nearing the end and a bit of Albanian Rock might come across quite nicely to neighbours.
15 Georgia - ticks all the boxes. The song is really wet (no pun on 'Waterfall' I might add) but I like it and I think a lot of others do. Nobody really loves it so it won't win but with a lot of friends in this semi, I'm sure Georgia will go through. If it doesn't, well it is pretty wet.
16 Switzerland - final rock song of the night. Clear message, nicely done, fans like it, you can't be shocked to see this qualify.
17 Romania - the most memorable of the night because of the scary high notes element. Doesn't need to go last to be remembered, but will people have already chosen their favourite? I won't be shocked it this qualifies because it is something different, but then it is hurrendous so won't be shocked if it doesn't.
SO I hope I have proved my point - no matter who qualifies and who doesn't, we can't truly be shocked by anything this evening. Apart from Petra Mede's hosting, that's pretty shocking. Personally, I'm looking forward to Lynda Woodruff's latest episode on her tour of Sweden (not her performance for Israel). I can't vote because I live in the UK so I urge you to vote San Marino please. COME ON SAN MARINO!
Good luck to all contestants tonight! (even you Margaret).
Thursday, 25 April 2013
Please do not feed me your love.
Up next is another song which is doing well, and yet again, it's from Scandinavia. This time it's Norway.
Well again, this is something which has a unique appeal. Norway are represented by Margaret Berger and the song 'I Feed You My Love'. The lyrics are something a little different, and like Denmark they are fairly metaphorical and they do make you think. This song absolutely dominated Norway's National Selection - almost beating it's opponents in the final by double the score. In online polls and with the bookies, this has fallen up short to Denmark on numerous occasions. The song has an edgy opener, fitting in with current musical themes sweeping across Europe, yet despite this, I feel the song lacks any depth. Yes the lyrics are interesting enough, and it definitely has a more modern melody, but I personally feel that you are always waiting for that big "umph" - and it just never comes! There is so much build up... to nothing! In my opinion, I find the song fairly boring, but people like it. Fans all across Europe keep voting for it in polls and the song was written by 'MachoPsycho' who have a pretty impressive collaborating history, and so you know that the entry will be accessible and popular. A definite final placement, but where it features in the running order will determine how well this song does. Nevertheless, if Norway place near the end, I still don't believe that this is a winner despite the raving reviews. Don't get me wrong, this is good, just not 'great'.
Tuesday, 24 April 2012
Norway - 2012
Norway have chosen Tooji to represent them in Baku. He will sing Stay.
Now is it me, or does everyone agree that Tooji is a 2012 version of Eric Saade? The same image and a similar song. And because of that, I'm not that excited about this song. I had great love for Popular, and even though Stay isn't as good as Popular, it's still brilliant. It's just, I feel I saw the exact same thing last year so it's naturally not as good. The good thing for Tooji is that he isn't a direct clone of Eric Saade, and they both had different paths to reach Eurovision, and I'm sure this will work in Tooji's favour if they are ever compared in the media.
But I feel I have already said all there is about Stay. It's catchy and dance-y, which will go down well with the crowds in Baku, but as I said, it has a very "Popular" feel about it and I don't know if the juries will mark the song down on this alone. I'm sure the televoters will pick up for this song all across Europe, and who knows, a Top 5 position may be on the cards if Tooji gets a good draw. Performing 16th in the Second Semi Final means this song will no doubt reach the final.
Song rating: 7/10
Liklihood to win: 6/10
Current odds: 16-1 (oddschecker.com)
Now is it me, or does everyone agree that Tooji is a 2012 version of Eric Saade? The same image and a similar song. And because of that, I'm not that excited about this song. I had great love for Popular, and even though Stay isn't as good as Popular, it's still brilliant. It's just, I feel I saw the exact same thing last year so it's naturally not as good. The good thing for Tooji is that he isn't a direct clone of Eric Saade, and they both had different paths to reach Eurovision, and I'm sure this will work in Tooji's favour if they are ever compared in the media.
But I feel I have already said all there is about Stay. It's catchy and dance-y, which will go down well with the crowds in Baku, but as I said, it has a very "Popular" feel about it and I don't know if the juries will mark the song down on this alone. I'm sure the televoters will pick up for this song all across Europe, and who knows, a Top 5 position may be on the cards if Tooji gets a good draw. Performing 16th in the Second Semi Final means this song will no doubt reach the final.
Song rating: 7/10
Liklihood to win: 6/10
Current odds: 16-1 (oddschecker.com)
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