Do the polls lie?

As I Brit, I'm naturally expected to ask this question after our GE of 2015 when all preview polls told porkies and everyone was a little surprised by the polarisation in the result. A year on and we're all like "of course the polls were wrong...duh!" but it begs the question of ESC; do the polls lie?

I consider myself a mega fan since 2009. In 2009, I sought all songs pre-contest and ranked them and loved them and ah it was amazing. Then the UK came 5th and that definitely helped my love for the contest. 2011 is arguably the best contest ever, 2012 saw me blog as a result of that, we had Euphoria, and well, the rest you know...

So when it comes to considering the polls, I'll start by taking a look back to the '09 contest to try and reflect what was really happening pre-contest. The ESC World had a big bang on social media in 2011, and wasn't anywhere near as big back in 2009. But I can feel people disagreeing with me already, but come on, ESC wasn't anywhere near as big on social media in 2009 as it is now. Fact(!)


2009 proved to be Norway's Fairytale

As we entered the 2009 contest, there were two bookie favourites; Norway and Greece. The Greeks were represented by Sakis Rouvas who had already come 3rd in 2004 with popular dance song "Shake It". He had then hosted the 2006 contest, and he was a household name. Still is a household name. However his 2009 entrant "This Is Our Night"was being dwarfed in polls by "Fairytale" for Norway, even though it was a good 2nd in many online polls. After the rehearsals, "Fairytale" was a shoe in for victory, and well, we all know the rest. It's has the record for the biggest points win ever. It seems the polls were right.

Other highly placed finishers in 2009 also finished well in polls, and you'd be hard pushed to find a poll that has Iceland, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and even the UK and Estonia outside the top 10/15.


Did Satellite enjoy an expected victory?

Moving on to 2010, and "Satellite" really didn't steam to victory. Germany pulled off a relatively unchallenged win nonetheless, with Turkey, Romania, Denmark, Azerbaijan and Belgium rounding up a fairly 'safe' top six.

Romania and Belgium were a little surprising to finish as high as they did based on pre-contest polls, but the big casualty was Harel Skaat's "Milim" finishing as low as 14th. However, he was by no means a runaway favourite and in fact the polls were very close that year. You'd be hard pressed to find one of the big polls ranking Germany outside the top 5, and a lot had Germany to win. It seems the polls had it around-about pretty spot on, in otherwise a pretty unspectacular year.


2011 had Kati Wolf left thinking; "What about my dreams the POLLS!?"

2011 comes round and I'm biased to talk about it really because I became heavily invested and delighted by the fantastic show. I think the 2011 contest was the best ever, but you already know that. I mentioned in "the biggest fan flops of all time" that undoubtedly Hungary's dramatically low finish is up there with the best flops, but the polls all around were pretty out of it. Kati Wolf may have won a lot of polls, but Estonia were doing well (especially with the bookies), France were the bookies hot fave and were a poll top tenner quite consistently, and even the UK were expected to do so much better. In the end, we all know Azerbaijan stole the show, but for songs this was an incredibly strong year and the polls were very close at points.

What is paramount though, is that Azerbaijan were consistently featured in many top 10s and there was universal acclaim for ESC fans alike that it was a good song and deserved to do well. They didn't start the ESC season well, but by the time we got to Eurovision  Week it was a popular song. People lament them winning, but they frequently appeared high in polls, they just weren't expected to win.

But I think we can say that the polls lied in 2011.


Euphoria

2012 comes around and Euphoria won everything pre-contest, it won everything at the contest, and we really need not say anything about 2012. Perhaps the biggest flop was Pastora Soler for Spain, but 2012 was remembered for being slightly ballad heavy, and that's the biggest case we have for Spain not doing better.


Those who didn't rate Denmark were left with only teardrops

2013 happens and Emmelie de Forest is storming everything for Denmark. The polls start to become a bit more skewed at this point though, with fans swarming for San Valentina - but there was never any real doubt about the winner. The staging was beautiful and looking back through the results, it all seems to make sense.


Fantastrophes in 2014? No, just Conchita...

As a UK fan going into 2014, I was delighted to see Molly not just doing well, but winning a lot of polls. I thought there might be a chance. The bookies had Armenia to win, a lot of people thought Hungary might steal it, everyone predicted a strong finish for Sweden, and the biggest fantastrophe was Israel not qualifying (which is not that great a surprise honestly). But we all fell for the Common Linnets, I had them in my top 10 but was not surprised to see them so low in so many polls, and confess that I didn't see them having much of a chance. And then the performance was just absolute magic, turning a track into pure gold, and on hindsight we're all like "duh!".

And then the Conchita effect. With hindsight, I can't believe I wasn't predicting a win for Austria. It is so obvious post-contest. The performance definitely helped, as the performance is absolutely stunning, but it was Conchita. Of course she was going to win, she was everything at the contest, it was just Conchita... and this was despite not doing that great in polls.

In the end the polls failed to predict success for Austria and the Netherlands. But the polls failed to consider what Conchita Wurst was actually achieving that year, and there was scepticism whether countries like Russia would vote for her. They did, the whole of Eastern Europe did and all fans have learned their lesson.


"Goodbye to victory, there would only be Heroes"

Finally we move into 2015, and Heroes was doing well all over the shot. It was winning most polls, and where it wasn't, the place was often filled by Italy or Estonia. Estonia were unlucky in the end, I think Russia and Italy's draw definitely helped, and Estonia just performed a bit too early for such a heavy 27-song show. However, Russia were predicted to do extremely well, even if the fans didn't rate the song as highly as others. And when it comes to the performance, Estonia is just a bit flat live. Especially when you compare it to the performances of Sweden, Russia, Italy, Belgium and even Australia. It was hard to predict Sweden or Italy not winning, and at the end of the day, if we didn't have juries, Italy would have won the contest. So it seems once more, the polls can hardly be accused of lying.


Dr Chris: Fixing the 2016 Problems?

So how can we apply that to the 2016 season? Well have a look at the polls floating around. Over the next 3 weeks, the Eurovision world on social media will play host to thousands of returning semi-fans, and thousands of brand new fans. The polls are still relatively under-spoken, and the full magnitude of the Eurovision fan world is, I think, just beginning to kick off. It'll be bigger and better than any year previous, and due to that, I think let's hold off reading too much into the polls for another week, and give the bookies a look in about two weeks to start to get a real reflection of what's happening.

That being said, I'll have a crack. Anyone who has seen my page or follows me on Twitter at all knows that I have France and Russia as a lofty one-two. But you can hardly deny that France-Russia are the top two in just about every poll, they are the bookies favourites, and they really are starting to pull away from the rest. The likes of Croatia, Australia, Bulgaria, Iceland and Spain are filling up many top fives, and the overall standard of songs this year is pretty average. The real decisive factor appears to be Ukraine, who are a bit Marmite; you either love it or you hate it.

There is no Conchita effect going on; the standard isn't the greatest so there is little chance of a 2011 repeat; so we can presume based on recent history, that the polls won't be too far out. This leads me to state that both Russia and France will secure top five finishes at minimum.

Neither of the songs are Euphoria, and France-Russia have too much popularity in a ratio comparable to the rest, so we wont see a Milim style flop. The biggest risk for them is to suffer a flop similar to Estonia last year. I think we can all agree that won't happen to Russia, which will for the most part, have undeniably flawless production. France will be a wholly unknown quantity for the broadcasters to predict whether they can win, but the draw won't effect whether this can win or not. We already know this has got crowds at preview shows in full song and dance so will be performed to a very warm reception to TV viewers on the night.


The Innocence of Passion

I appreciate my next comment does have bias because I want France to win; but anyone calling the song "overrated" is, I believe, being naive and to some extent, immature. In 2012, I thought Euphoria was good but was upset because at the time I believe that 2012 was such a strong year and Euphoria didn't deserve to "runaway" with it. Ultimately, I wanted more of a contest. However I wasn't that big a fool to not rate the song, and had it firmly in my top ten. Fast forward to 2013, and Denmark were stealing the pre-contest race, albeit not as strongly as Sweden the year before. Again, I was perhaps a little devastated simply because I didn't think the song deserved to have such a lead because the songs were better once again. For that reason, I actually de-valued the quality of Only Teardrops, calling it the biggest overrated song in the contest.

A few years on from that, and I can't believe that those were my opinions, (1) because Euphoria makes literally everyone euphoric, (2) Only Teardrops is just lovely, and (3) 2012, and 2013 moreso, are with hindsight not that strong. The reason I say it's therefore naive to think France is overrated and isn't going to win, is simply because 2016 just isn't that good a year. People have the same songs over and over again in their top 10. I'm not talking about #1 favourites, I'm talking about top tens, which is something we all love to do because each country at Eurovision awards their top ten their points. For this reason, there are a good handful of countries who could finish top 3, and therefore appear a threat at winning. There are too many songs this year, like 2013, that don't have that "pulling, favouritism" power, especially in comparable quantity to France/Russia. For example, ESC Stats holds the top 10 polled this year with 49.3% of 'favourites', compared to last year's top 10 holding 65.2%. There were too many songs last year that were favourites, reflecting the strength in year and demonstrating why the polls this year are going to be favourably accurate in forseeing a French or Russian win. This is because their strength in popularity plays far greater magnitude in a comparable ratio to other songs.

The polls are a distinct reflection of epistemologically, portraying with authenticity, a positivist choice of quality. They demand an interpretation due to lacking any real ability to assume other's autonomy, and simply, Eurovision has taught me the interpretation can only be assumed as passion. The controversy, the debates, the intensity amongst fans pre-contest has never been so consuming, which can only be depicted as passion. For this reason, I celebrate a naive "overrated" comment. If France or Russia don't win the contest, I'll be damned. But for those saying it is overrated are simply evoking the passion of the contest; you want there to be more of a contest as you don't rate it as highly. And for those saying you "can't see France or Russia winning" you are simply being naive. They are winning the pre-contest polls pretty much everywhere, France are starting to really assail a lead over Russia, and so to say you cant see either of them winning is just optimistically wishing neither would. I'm sorry, but it's true.


What happens when Serhat steals victory and you Chris, look like a complete idiot?

I welcome it. For the very reasons I have laid out, my support for France and Russia will look entirely passionate. If I'm going to be very wrong after the final then so be it! I think there's a good chance they won't both finish top two, simply because there are arguments against both. France's just might not come across as great live, and Russia's lyrics might disenchant the ordinary voter. But I'm not going to start building a defence if my arguments for them winning humiliate me. I'll say it again, humiliation is part and parcel of being a Eurovision fan, because a true fan follows with passion and integrity, and those are two character traits you should never be afraid or ashamed of.


With love.

Russia's Hypocrisy?

Dear readers,

I urge to remind you first and foremost that the Eurovision Song Contest is supposed to be about the songs. A country will choose an artist which best represents their country and culture, and is supposed to disregard the politics and bring Europe TOGETHER.

That being said... we all know the current storm surrounding Conchita Wurst's emphatic victory. In the wise words of Carl Epsen, there is a silent storm in Russia and other former Soviets. Whether they appreciated the song or not, Russians televoted Austria into 3rd place. The juries also marked them 11th. There is obviously anger and disproval over the LGBT laws introduced in Russia last year. I made comments on that at the start of the Eurovision season, but in case you missed that, Russian law now bans "homosexual" propaganda to minors. Because of the law, it would have been considered illegal activity to show Conchita Wurst on television. However, the EBU has hard lines when it comes to not showing all the performances. Remember back in 2005? Lebanon were going to enter, but because their laws state you must not recognise Israel as a country, the Lebanese broadcasters were not going to show the Israeli entry. That would have broken the rules and Lebanon would have faced fines, bans and other disciplinary procedures. So in that case, Russia had no choice. They had to show Conchita on television.

(there were other former states kicking off too - Belarus, considered to be the only dictatorship still operative in Europe, also were very unhappy about Conchita).

BUT as many people are pointing out, Ukraine sent Verka Seduchka in 2007, and Russia sent their very own t.A.T.u in 2003. You could even point out Marija Serifovic in 2007, who represented Serbia. Now for any Eurovisionphobes reading (of which I doubt there are), Verka Seduchka provided the contest with one of the most memorable performances of all time. The act is a drag queen, and Verka is a character, no more. Performing in blinding silver sequins, many will remember Dancing Lasha Tumbai as one of their favourite ever Eurovision entrants. I certainly do. Yet this was deemed ok? Hmmm....

t.A.T.u - remembered by many for their infamous homosexual music video to European smash hit "All The Things She Said", as well as to Eurofans alike for their disrespectful behaviour during the 2003 season. The girls are in fact not lesbians themselves, however have stated that they represented and stood for lesbians. Yet, Russia chose to send them as an artist. Can we really look back 11 years to criticise Russia for their actions following Conchita's win?

I'll also quickly mention the many, many, many LGBT acts that have participated in Eurovision throughout the years. Serbia's Marija won with Molitva in 2007...who can forget DQ representing Denmark also in '07...Ryan Dolan of Ireland in 2013...Harel Skaat of Israel in 2010...way back in 1998, when transgender Dana International stole the show for Israel...the list could go on! The point is, why NOW Russia? There has been anti-gay movements in Russia for a number of years, and there was controversy in 2009 when they hosted. But why after all this time do they kick off?

There are several answers. First of all, it is what Conchita represents. I argued it before the contest and I'll say it again: Conchita Wurst is a different type of drag queen. Whereas others such as Verka were comedy characters, Conchita is not just a character. She identifies her gender as a women, but her sex is still male. If you have a problem with that statement then re-assess yourself. Gender and sex are different, end of. Sex is biological, Gender is social. Disagree with me all you like, but I will stick by that truth. However, Conchita also has a sexuality - her image and performance have a raw sexual energy and it is this why Russia are not happy. This makes the performance more human, less fictional. This makes Conchita's choice seem like an acceptable choice to make; we can be who we want to be.

Secondly, we do have to consider currently political philosophies, tensions and analyse the situation. By voting in the masses for Conchita to win, it is a way of accepting the choices made and endorses a respect. The anti-gay laws made in Russia demonstrate the institutional position of homosexuality, and it can easily be argued that they are backwards laws and "hate" laws. But let's just say Putin isn't a fan. Now, is it hypocrisy to argue that sending t.A.T.u is ok and then rejecting Conchita is right? I will argue there is a certain level of hypocritical thought, but predominantly, there isn't. I made the point earlier that a country is suppose to select a participant based on their culture and national identity. Well t.A.T.u took Europe by storm in 2003 and so they were best placed to represent Russian culture at the time of the 2003 contest. It is so easy to look back with hindsight and judge people, but we live in the present. I'm in no way defending Russian thinking that Conchita is bad and demoralising, but the argument that they are hypocritical isn't strong enough in my opinion. 11 years makes a difference in thinking and culture. If we get into a storm about hypocrisy, then I think it's more a factor that Russia sent a song about putting down your guns and peace in 2013, and then annexed Crimea less than a year later. Of course Russia are going to kick off about Conchita Wurst; it effectively defies the legislation made last year about homosexual propaganda. Speculating that Russia wouldn't be annoyed is like saying you wouldn't be annoyed if you went on a diet and then remembered you paid for a non-refundable tour of the chocolate factory.

Lastly, I bring you to what Eurovison actually is. I want to talk about the Russian proposal to withdraw. In theory, Eurovision is this wonderful show of culture and identity where Europe comes together to battle for a glass trophy and a chance to show off their country. In reality, Eurovision is a chance to make money. People are calling for the UK to quit Eurovision: "we always lose, why do we bother?" is a nonsensical argument because you are thinking that the BBC's prime objective is to win. NO! The BBC's prime objective, no matter what the show is, is to win television ratings and earn money. Do you think they'd still commission shows like Doctor Who if nobody watched it? No, obviously not. The same applies with Eurovision: it is theeee cheapest way of dominating Saturday Night television in the UK. The second objective of the BBC is to win, but only because this will bring more attention and more viewers, equalling more money. Some countries struggle financially to enter the competition, with difficulty in finding sponsorship and so forth. The prime illustration of this is Serbia not qualifying in 2013 resulting in a lack of funding for 2014 participation. The point being made here is that no matter what county, Eurovision is an economic and business platform, with the sole prize making money. You may not like to hear that, but if you truly and realistically assess Eurovision then you know what I'm saying to be true. Another example is Australia - do you really think SBS would air the show if only 1,000 people watched it? Of course they bloody wouldn't. Australians like Eurovision so SBS show it. It's as simple as that: Eurovision is there to make money. And so all these ridiculous calls for Russia to withdraw are just silly. The only way Russia will withdraw is if their is a competition such as Voice of Eurasia would make MORE money than Eurovision. It's hard to say if it will, but it won't. Not in this day and age, especially after Russian people loved Conchita.

I can already hear the opposing argument in one word; Turkvizyon. What is important to remember in this incidence is that the withdrawal move was not political. It was over the fact that Turkey doesn't like the rules of the contest. Now Turkvizyon is an interesting one because it can be argued that surely entering Eurovision would be financially better than creating Turkvizyon; it's got more to do with culture than money perhaps. BUT, I disagree. It's to do with culture, but only in the interest of making money. Turkvizyon is a regional thing promoting Turkish music and Turkish culture. It was designed to grow interest in Turkey as a country, boosting their position and increasing tourism. Turkey constantly did well and yet the only chance they got to show themselves off was in 2004. The reason this is different from the idea of "Voice of Eurasia" is that, that competition will be about political discourse and ideology rather than a promotion of Russian culture. I have a feeling I may not have won you over with this argument, but the way I see it is that Russia want a different contest so far unproposed of financially benefitting the region. Turkey on the other hand created a different contest which does financially benefit the region. Perhaps if the angry Russians supposed a contest which will glamour the former Soviets then I can see the idea start to become more of a reality. However at this moment in time, do not expect Russia to withdraw. They will continue to make silly comments about their displeasure in the result, but it will be nothing more than this.

And with one more analogy, I leave with the title of your number 2; "Calm After The Storm". Remember the Eurovision storm isn't over yet; although in previous years its fizzled out, more people are talking about 2014 because of the controversy. Wait for the storm to die down and then look at Eurovision calmly. The calm after the storm will result in nothing more than Russia withdrawing for a year at most. Don't expect Ukraine to go, the Baltics won't, Moldova won't, and I'm going to predict that the worst will be Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan withdrawing. But the Azeri's will come back next year with a trooper of a ballad, more controversy and a top 5 finish. Belarus are getting Alexander Rybak on board. If they had any chance of winning then they won't leave. Russia will stand alone if they withdraw - but I reckon they won't, because the storm is yet to blow over.


Ooh quick mention to the other gossip - Georgia might get disqualified. Well after talking so much about Turkvizyon, I think it can safely be said that if Georgia do get banned for a year, or even 3 years, then they won't come back. Is that good or is that bad? Well if those sneaky juries get banned then surely that's good, but I don't want participation to decline any more! And plus, let the juries be sneaky if the Georgian televote assured the UK of points. Molly deserved more this year so I'll be selfish and argue that I don't want them to go if they liked her song (WHICH IS AMAZING).

What can we learn from Conchita?

Well it's time to procrastinate once again. You know the Eurovision season stops and I go back into hibernation. Not this year, this year seems bigger, there seems to be more interest and if you're not playing QuizUp then download and we can all start quizzing each other on their new topic of questions: Eurovision (duh?).

So today's blogpost looks at what we can learn from Conchita. Well I say Conchita, I really mean the 2014 season. And I apologise for any readers from outside the UK, as I may predominantly focus on that disappointing 17th place.

IF YOU HAVEN'T GOT MUCH TIME, I'VE DONE A PERFECT SUMMARY DOWN THE BOTTOM. IF NOT, READ ON...

To begin with, 2014 was a good year. In fact, it was a very good year. Like a lot of other fans, I was originally disappointed when I heard all the songs from this year. Then I grew to love Children of the Universe, Freaky Fortune are my new favourite Euroboyband (I guess I could call them that?), Firelight and The Common Linnets have re-excited my love for country music, and dubstep seems to be oozing into the far corners of Europe.
But where was 'Euphoria'? Fairytale? Only Teardrops? Satellite? The recent years have thrown up some true greats, and even when we couldn't decide the winner of the 2011 edition, it is undeniably one of my favourite years as I LOVE so many songs that year. This year we had no clear cut winner, no runaway favourite. Every fan site indicated different answers, you'd go to ESC Stats where they'd be bigging up Sweden...ESC Nation fans voted in their thousands for the UK...the bookmakers were so keen on Armenia taking the victory...WiWiBloggs really buggered it up, rating and voting Ireland so highly...even on this blog (where you can still vote for your favourite, I should definitely remove that poll!) Hungary were the hot favourite. Everywhere you looked though, noone was denying that Conchita was going to do well, even with most predicting a conservative backlash about our famous bearded lady. But that was also the case for Israel, and looked what happened to poor old Mei Finegold. What I'm saying is Sweden and Denmark were so obviously going to win in 2012 and 2013, everyone knew Germany probably had it in the bag in 2010, Norway looked a cert to win in 2009 and when the draw was released, Azerbaijan rocketed to the top of the odds in 2011. This year was different on every level, sure Austria climbed after that magnificent semi final performance, but they weren't the hot favourites even with a couple of hours to go. And they had 11th in the draw. Basically, this year collected all the recent stats since the 2009 rule change and threw them out the window. Are we entering a new era for Eurovision?

(by the way I left out the OGAE poll for a number of reasons; in summary, don't read anything into that bloody poll!)

Onwards and upwards then, what can we expect in 2015?
Well for a start, I'm sure Austria will put on a lavish show for ESC numero 60. It's gonna be special. Jon Ola Sand promised. What about the songs though? Sweden have got quite a reputation to uphold, with 3rd in 2011, 1st in 2012, let's not mention 2013, and 3rd this year. Without doubt Melodifestivalen has turned up a notch since that non-qualification incident in 2010 and so naturally, the Swedes will produce someone popular once more. Fingers crossed Danny Saucedo finally gets his chance! What is going to happen with Azerbaijan? Dilara is probably fuming, and the country probably doesn't like her, or Malta for that matter (no douze points from their "famous" neighbours?). Will Azerbaijan come back stronger and louder? Yes. I predict something resonant of 2009. Other powerhouses Russia and Ukraine can sit comfortably, and we'll probably get something out of them neither terrible nor amazing next year. Greece will give us more whacky selections too, looking at 20th as a blip rather than a trend.
Recent favourites Italy also scored their worst ever performance at a Eurovision. After only coming back in 2011, is this going to be instrumental? Viewing figures still haven't set the world alight, and they are not going to do anything for interest next year. I expect they'll return without caring about this result, and they'll be back to that top 10 next year.
I move on to the rest of the former Soviet bloc now. Belarus look like they are on the up with 2013 and 2014 results. Alexander Rybak has shown interest in selecting Belarus' participant in 2015 and so could we be heading to Minsk? Proven winner... (although that has meant nothing recently, Niamh Kivanagh, Charlotte Perelli, Dana International etc...). Then we have the Baltic states. Well Latvia haven't upped their games, so I think we can expect another non-qualifier from them. Lithuania won't send anything popular and so people will question whether they will qualify...and then they bloody will...and as for Estonia, well, we will probably get a dull ballad next year. Not that Ott and Brigit were dull, but c'mon, more ballads? Oh and I almost forgot Moldova. I am optimistic that Pasha will make a triumphant return. CHISINAU 2015 BITCHES.
Let's move on to the former Yugoslav bloc. Anyone predicting returns from Serbia, Bosnia & H, Croatia, and so on? Well Montenegro will definitely be back with a boring ballad, hoping that is the recipe for success now. I hope the others return, but it really is up in the air. The last time Serbia took a break was after the dissolution of Serbia and Montenegro...they returned with Molitva. If Serbia do return, I reckon there will be Zelijko intervention of some sort. Could we be going back to Belgrade?
I'll stay near the area and mention the other Southern states. Israel? Well I'd give a year off if I were them, but we'll see. Probably won't qualify though. Albania? More of the same no doubt. Bulgaria? Unless you've got Elista & Stoyan, give it another year. Romania? Could be interesting, Paula & Ovi were supposed to do better. Georgia? More bizzare internal selections. Armenia? Back to basics I reckon. More Sirusho, less Lonely Planets and MP3s hopefully. And then there is TURKEY. Well we all know why they quit in the first place, and things will have to change for them to return. I'm doubtful a bearded lady from Austria will inspire their comeback.
Well I'm moving quite quickly through...there's the middle of Europe to think about. Hungary seemed to have enjoy success the last two years, they'll probably stick to the same and produce qualifiers. Poland might just be that country with the Eurovision gems for the next few years. Moldova and Montenegro have treated us with some rare and unusual songs recently, maybe Poland will continue to bring the butter churners? Czech Republic and Slovakia may look at recent results and consider coming back. If Austria can lift the crown, then they can definitely qualify with the right approach. A bearded lady from a neighbouring country may just set alight enough interest. Oh and let's hope Liechtenstein finally get the funding to make their debut. They could be the new San Marino...keep trying and you'll make it. Valentina once said that this will be her last Eurovision whether she qualifies or not. I think San Marino might be represented by someone else next year. And I have a feeling they are going to be really good. Instinctual, don't ask why. Oooh I suppose Switzerland count as the middle. Well, I expect no change from them, it'll be middle of the road, and will either qualify or won't.
Moving on to the west now...and well, not considering the big 5, what on earth is happening? The Netherlands look on course to become the new Eurovision powerhouse with fantastic entries in the last 2 years...Belgium may be taking a leaf out of their book. Malta have been enjoying much success over the last couple, they'll give us something similar to Kurt and Gianluca next year. Unless Chiara comes back again, which no fan should ever rule out. Portugal might take another year out, it's hard to say. In my opinion, they should look to Brazil and should have played off the World Cup this year. That's easy to say with hindsight, but Brazil speak Portugese and are not short of a few stars. Introduce Michel Telo to Europe. Ai Se Eu Te Pego (think I've spelled that correctly) or something similar would storm Eurovision!! Ireland are probably well pissed they didn't qualify and will send a ballad about peace or love (similar to what we heard in the 90s) next year...unless Jedward come back. They promised to give Eurovision another go if they penned their own song. Well if someone teaches them to sit still and write we could be in for something magically brilliant...or magically hilarious.
Little mention to the Nordic countries...continue doing what you're doing. 2 of the 5 Scandinavians will finish in the top 10 at least, I'm once more going to hope Iceland win.

And finally we have the big 5 countries. Spain will send another female ballad if they realise what's good for them...Germany will send up and coming talent, which will probably be quite good...already mentioned Italy...goodness knows how Austria are going to come up with an act to follow Conchita. Unless Conchita performs again, which I doubt very much...France really don't care and will send another fun act...and though the citizens of the UK bemoan once more that "everybody hates us", I beg, beg, beg the BBC to repeat the same procedure. Pick up and coming talent, get them to write the song, give them a shot on the biggest stage in Europe. They'll get fans whoever they are, and with a bit of luck, we might finally do it. Do not send a has-been, do not let the public choose, do not invite Jedward to perform for us, just use BBC Introducing. Or plead to Simon Cowell to use one of his artists. If One Direction enter, we have this. I have just written paragraphs upon paragraphs about the UK selection process, but I deleted it. I wanna keep this short and sweet: the UK is one of the best music exporting countries in the world, with some of the biggest names in music British. There are extremely talented performers up and down the country trying to squeeze into this industry. Most are going to bed at night praying for that opportunity. Those who have decided that music is their passion and that's what they want to do will snap up the chance to get some attention to their talents. Molly Smitten-Downes received exposure to her music and has a steady growing fan base...and she has a record contract now too. Her finishing 17th hasn't lost fans to her music. Give unsigned artists a chance, a platform and ignore the pessimists. The BBC once again dominated Saturday Night Ratings with one of the cheapest shows filling the hot 20:00 to 23:30 slots. They are not withdrawing any time soon.

Well rant over, what about anyone I've forgotten? Shout out for Cyprus to make a return! Will we see any new participants? I think our best hope is Liechtenstein. The Vatican could always send some dancing nuns (guaranteed top 3) but it's more likely I discover a sexual attraction to cows over the next year than the Vatican City even debating entering the contest. Kazakhstan should enter...and Australia should be given a 60th celebration entry, and that chapter is definitely not closed. With no diaspora voting, it would be so interesting to see how the Ozzies vote. As a UK citizen, I'm praying that our English speaking friends give us a nod for at least a couple of points!

Predictions for next year's winner: Sweden, Azerbaijan, Belarus or Serbia (if they come back).
It could be another similar year, wide open and hotly contested, and we could end up with an unprecedented winner. If that's the case, let's hope Iceland or Portugal do it.

Prediction for the big 5: well, they will be automatic qualifiers, I don't see that changing for at least a few more years yet. The UK will finish on the right hand side, as will France and Spain. Germany will finish on the left hand side, and Italy will finish in the top 10.

Prediction Surprises: San Marino will have a good track, and Israel will qualify with a hot male singing a ballad. Lithuania will enter more tripe and qualify, and to their disgust, fan favourite Estonia will miss out again. Ireland will turn fortunes around, as will Moldova, but one of the Nordics will suffer from an early semi final draw and not qualify.

Prediction about the rules: More weighting will be applied to televoting. The countries which finish top 3 in the televote will be guaranteed points even if they are hated by the juries (circa Poland '14).

Prediction for withdrawals: FYR Macedonia might give it a break, Georgia could give it a year, and Albania might call it a day.

Predictions about controversy: Azerbaijan and Armenia will give us more problems. Russia will send something political but still be allowed to enter it, as the Ukraine have done on countless occasions.

Other Predictions: Geri Halliwell will not compete for the UK. Although don't rule out Katrina teaming up with Mike Nolan for a super entry, criticised by Sandie Shaw, and finishing last. Unless Kimberly Rew decides to write it. France will beg Anne-Marie David to give it another crack, but settle for someone similar to Sebastian Tellier. Ireland will send a drag queen, and there'll be jokes amongst fans that it is actually Linda Martin. Johnny Logan will be considered.

So the predictions got a bit silly...but you never know...

Conchita is the new Queen of Eurovision!

Well anyone reading this certainly watched it all unravel last night, so why bother mentioning individual scores? All we need to care about is CONCHITA WURST - THE NEW QUEEN OF EUROVISION! Huge Congratulations to Conchita and to Austria, and a big fuck you to the haters. Nuff said...

Conchita Wurst celebrating after winning the 59th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. She managed a grand total 290 points and stole the show with her image, her song and her message. The juries and televoters have fallen in love with a new star. Roll on Vienna 2015!

But I'm sure you're sick of reading about Conchita already? I'm not, but there are some other items on this agenda. We'll get the big one out the way first... WHY DID YOU NOT ALL VOTE FOR MOLLY? Ha ha ha ha ha, I'm gutted the UK didn't do better! But I said it before the contest and I'll say it again now, first or last, Molly has done an incredible job for her country and should hold her head high. So what if they didn't all fall in love with it? The mass Eurovision fan community did, and you cannot deny that Children of the Universe is a stunning song. She should have done better, but then, in my opinion, Greece and Malta should have done much better too. And that's all it is at the end of the day - opinions. The BBC need to keep doing this: give unsigned acts a chance, use the wide spread talent we have! You also have to feel for Italy, who just had their worst ever showing at a Eurovision, as well as Azerbaijan flopping BIG time. Any UK fans need to remember that Austria have just waited 48 years for victory. Spain haven't won since '69, Netherlands '75 (oh big Congrats to the Dutch! Cracking show, best result in years and thoroughly deserved. First Anouk and now the Common Linnets, keep 'em coming!), and although the list could go on, Portugal keep trying and have never finished higher than 6th. "Everybody hates us" - oh shut up! Nobody hates us. Next!

The next thing we need to all think about is how we want the voting to take place. Yet again, the day after is the day of CONTROVERSY! And what controversy we have this year! First off, the Armenian jury marked Azerbaijan 25th out of 25, and vice versa. It looks like Montenegro have done something shifty as well...especially when looking at Montenegro/Armenia results. Georgia's jury vote wasn't even used because of some sort of breach in jury rules, so just their televote was used. And thank god it did, it gave the UK points! But looking at it seriously, something isn't right and it needs investigating. Oh and you have to feel for Poland (and Switzerland). Poland would have finished 6th if it was 100% televoting with countries like UK and Ireland giving them top points from televoting. However the juries certainly did not love it. Malta had the same thing happen but the other way round - 6th with juries but not the best with televoters. If we're all honest though, a 50/50 split is going to result in one or two countries at least dividing televoters and juries like Marmite. I say investigate the controversy, but ignore the calls for changes. Keep it 50/50 for a few years.

Let's also mention the booing, and the politics. Russia giving Austria 5 points!? Well Done! Obviously Russian people are not happy about the situation in their country, and the LGBT community responded with televotes for Conchita. Say what you think about that, but that to me is a marvellous thing. I was shocked Russia and Ukraine did not exchange 12 points, but it just goes to show that Politics is not as big in Eurovision this year as we all dreaded it might be. It's socio-political to vote for a bearded lady even if she screamed blue murder for 3 minutes, but Conchita had a sensual James Bond ballad and a stunning voice. She won for the song just as much as for the image. 

And how can it be ALL political when Austria, the Netherlands and Sweden finished 1, 2, 3? 3 Western countries completing the top 3 tells me the exact obvious. 

There has to be a big mention to our hosts from last night! Denmark I think put on one of the best Eurovision contests I've ever seen. In my personal opinion, Baku, Moscow and Dusseldorf have all put on spectaculars in the last few years, but Copenhagen really had something special. The staging was aesthetically brilliant, the postcards all required originality and some of them were incredible, the hosts were quick witted and provided some of that great Scandinavian humour, the interval acts were very good, and I just really, really appreciated the whole thing. So much to say that it might be favourite host city so far. Debate ensuing... However, the most magical part of everything which makes me argue it's my favourite is 'Rainmaker'. Emmelie de Forest singing with all the finalists, and by the looks of it, the entire arena as well, was "magic". I can't describe it better than that! That will be one of the performances I'll remember for some time.

And so we move to Vienna 2015. The English are going crazy... the last time Austria won the Eurovision Song Contest was 1966, incidentally the same year that England last won the FIFA World Cup. I won't bore you with the other coincidental football statistics, but as a fan of football too, there is a brightside to only finishing 17th last night! Thankyou to all countries who gave us points, to all readers who voted for the UK, and a huge Good Luck to Austria for hosting the 2015 and 60th edition of the contest. Next year is going to be big everybody! Thankyou for reading my blog and following the posts. I hope they have been interesting and summarative. I throw in my opinions because so many blogs try to stay neutral in my opinion. I'm not. I hope you join me to look forward to no. 60 and are revelling in a victory for freedom today! Well Done Conchita Wurst.

Rise Like a Phoenix - Conchita Wurst - your winner!

Who will use as a toilet break tonight?

In one of my favourite posts of the Eurovision season, I will draw everyone's attention back to the running order - you need to decide your toilet break song!

Okay, so there is a interval or two, and you don't really need to watch all 37 countries release their votes...but after a few too many beers are you really gonna be able to hold it in for more than a couple of songs? And what happens when you need to refresh your drink? Too many possibilities not to plan your evening.

This year the producers have made it extremely hard to select an ideal toilet break/refreshment top up whatever you want to call it. So what you have pause on your tv? That doesn't count.
I was really tempted by breaking during Azerbaijan in 3rd slot...but Azerbaijan are one of my favourite nations in the contest, I'm a big fan of Dilara and 'Start a fire' and plus, they're only 3rd. Therefore I say hold tight till Germany in 12th. Sorry fans of Elaiza, but really, it isn't right! The bland performance from the Germans runs into a commercial break for the rest of Europe so this is a chance for a mega break - go to toilet, grab another 3 cans, refill the peanuts, straighten up your country's flag and get back to your hot seat. A blip in the show will provide lots of space for talking; especially when Russia take to the stage. I will put money on it that my housemates will discuss Russian politics when the twins take stage. After letting them continue through Italy and Slovenia (excellent chances to break if you've forgotten anything), shit will start to get better around Finland in 18 (no pun intended there!). And if you're really desperate, I'm sure many won't mind you skipping Switzerland in 20 or Valentina's final performance for San Marino in slot 25. Then UK fans better be ready for Molly to take the roof off!

The EBU have released the running order for the votes following last night's jury rehearsal...there's whisper on the web that this indicates a western country has won the jury vote...are we heading Austria, Netherlands, UK, Sweden? Even Hungary could have won it to be fair. Let's not speculate about the voting order, because the jury and televoters will not necessarily vote in unison.

5 hours to go now, this shit is getting exciting!

POST SEMI FINAL 2 EXCITEMENT (2014 Edition)

Aaaaaah Eurovision week is going far too quickly! I don't want it to end. But one advantage is that the final is only one sleep away now...

Whose still hungover from the excitement last night? The Friday after the second semi final is always more tiring simply because we all stay up later for the draw. But for now, let's look back at another brilliant night of Eurovision.

The 10 qualifiers from semi final 2 are (if you don't know this by now, where the hell have you been?): Malta, Norway, Poland, Austria, Finland, Belarus, Switzerland, Greece, Slovenia, and Romania.

Let's first discuss the qualifiers...well are any of them a shock to you? With hindsight the qualifiers seem so god damn obvious! Performing near the end of semi final was always going to be more beneficial in such a wide open race to qualification, hence the success of Switzerland and Slovenia... and those early enough in the draw to qualify all had something going for them; Carl Epsen of Norway produced an absolutely stunning vocal guaranteed to get Mums all over Europe falling in love. Additionally, Poland had breasts, Finland had a fangirl rock band, and Austria had a bearded lady. Huge Congratulations has to go to Malta for qualifying right from position 1. Malta seemed to get a little abuse from Eurofans, which seemed absurd to me, but obviously Maltaford and Sons have popularity across the continent. A quick mention to Belarus - the performance was slick and was sure to get all the other Mums in Europe falling in love. Finally there was Greece and Romania: anyone thinking these 2 wouldn't qualify evidently knows nothing about Eurovision.

So let's get to the bit everyone is complaining: the non-qualifiers! 5 participants had to fail to make it and there was always going to be disappointment over who wouldn't make it. Before I begin, fans who complain need to accept it and move on. If you struggle with that, then ask yourself; did you give all 20 of your votes to your favourite who didn't qualify? If you did then stay pissed at the juries till next year, if not, then really just get over it!
The biggest complaint is Israel failing to qualify! Well, Mei Finegold certainly delivered a stunning routine, and although I originally couldn't stand 'Same Heart', it was beginning to grow on me. Nevertheless, it was in my opinion very overrated and to see it not make the final isn't that much of a shock. But I hear your protests already so I'll defend my thinking as to why they didn't qualify: it was too generic! Israel failed to qualify alongside Ireland, FYR Macedonia and Lithuania. On the whole, you could argue all of these are fairly simple. Someone who is going to like Israel will probably have also liked Ireland, FYR Macedonia and Lithuania. Them failing to qualify as well probably meant that their similarities worked against them and divided like-minded voters. That's my explanation of it anyway. Israel probably did the best of the 4, for Ireland gave a horribly lifeless performance, Lithuania's Vilija was rocking a futuristic Celine Dion outfit, and Tijana of FYR Macedonia didn't have the best vocal. But I sit here and criticise them in the smallest ways. In reality, all countries gave it there all last night and should feel very proud!
The only other qualifier I haven't mentioned is Georgia. And I don't feel I need to say any more.

But let's now discuss the draw for the final! Well as a UK citizen, you can predict my fangasm when other contenders like Greece, Romania, Norway and Austria were all allocated in the first half of the final. Its fate surely? We didn't have to wait as long as last year to see the running order, so thank you very much to Sand, EBU and DR for such a speedy release. I first saw the news on Ruth Lorenzo, Spain's entry, twitter, and couldn't fathom as to why noone else had reported on the running order for about 5 minutes...then realised I needed to update my twitter feed. The UK are to perform 26th and last...
My initial thought: well that's any chance of victory gone. My thought now: WE CAN DO THIS!
The best bit about the UK performing last is that 'Children of the Universe' has the potential to bring the house down! In reality, it's a producers dream because it can so easily finish the show. I guarantee that the UK was pencilled in to perform last since Molly grabbed that all important second half allocation. But what about the rest of the draw? Where does everyone stack up now?
Well Ukraine are opening the show. Hmmm... We could spend hours thinking about this, but if we just think about the song then surely we have a brilliant opener too. An attractive young girl with a modern and upbeat pop song, performed with a good looking man running in a hamster wheel. What a better way to open the show to fresh viewers! Looking down the running order and the producers have done a sterling job. Azerbaijan in 3rd...will they finish top 5 again this year? It looks certainly doubtful...early hot favourites Armenia are as early as 7th...not sure if that'll help them at all...Greece in 10th...Conchita will rock everyone for Austria in 11th...Sweden were given 13th, well we all expected that...the hot spots 16-22 give us Spain as potential contenders, but more importantly HUNGARY IN 21ST. Well surely we know we're all headed to Budapest in 2015? After that Denmark look good for at least top 10 in 23rd (but we all knew that anyway)...chart enthusiasts will be delighted with the Netherlands in 24th and so it looks good for them. San  Marino are in 25th, so at least we assured of Valentina Monetta not getting nil points. And then of course, the UK to close. As I just said, it looks very nice for Hungary to win...

The only people who still don't think Hungary could grab it are the bookmakers...oddschecker reports that many favourites are now drifting in the betting. You can get Hungary as high as 16-1 at 'bwin' which looks extremely tasty at the moment. Sweden currently lead, Austria have shortened to second, and the Netherlands look pretty in 3rd. As a Eurovision fan growing up in the 00s, I have to say that seeing those 3 as the top 3 seems absolutely bonkers, and the fact that Conchita Wurst is so hot to win is like winning in itself.

Below is the full draw for the final:

01 Ukraine
02 Belarus
03 Azerbaijan
04 Iceland
05 Norway
06 Romania
07 Armenia
08 Montenegro
09 Poland
10 Greece
11 Austria
12 Germany
13 Sweden
14 France
15 Russia
16 Italy
17 Slovenia
18 Finland
19 Spain
20 Switzerland
21 Hungary
22 Malta
23 Denmark
24 Netherlands
25 San Marino
26 United Kingdom


Good Luck to all performers in the final! A special Good Luck to Molly Smitten-Downes and the United Kingdom!

The final of the 59th Eurovision Song Contest will start in Copenhagen, Denmark at 21:00 CET, 20:00 BST on BBC1 for UK viewers.

Why is it so hard to predict?

Good afternoon readers...less than 3 hours to go now!!

Today's blogpost takes the form of "Why is the second semi final so hard to predict?". The only things certain to happen tonight are some form of Conchita Wurst related hastag, Jessica Mauboy, and Greece & Romania to make the final. But who else will qualify? Who won't qualify? Who will win the semi final? Who will make the top 3? Which country will be the surprise qualifier? Will we see another song shoot up around iTunes Charts across Europe? What's going to happen people!?!?

My 10 predictions are: Malta, Norway, Georgia, Austria, Lithuania, Finland, Ireland, Belarus, Greece & Romania. I just have an instinctual feeling that Georgia will qualify over fan favourite Israel, sending shockwaves and outrage across Europe. Although Eurovision fans will vote in their masses once again, it didn't stop Estonia falling out. Those 10 predicted were not my original 10 though, and indecisiveness is a theme across a large number of blogs. Perhaps we should just all wait and see? Hahahaha.
Maybe I'm trying to find a shock though...or maybe Georgia qualifying won't be that shocking at all...there are too few countries in this semi final for there to be a real shock. And that's where the problem truly is; too few countries. With the departure of favourites such as Serbia amongst others, Eurovision has declined once again. But still 37 countries is quite a few, and one massive semi final of 31 participants would be too exhausting even for some hardcore fans. Whatever the case, the situation is we will lose just 5 participants tonight, and for the sake of the former Yugoslavs, I feel relieved at least Montenegro will represent the region in the final - more walkouts would cause headaches. I never did a proper Congratulations to Sergej and Montenegro in yesterday's blogpost so here it is... Well Done!
But I won't waffle too much... I still have heaps of essay writing and exam revision to be getting on so I'll finish by reminding everyone the wonder of not being able to predict the qualifiers: this semi final will be very, very exciting! There does seem to be more buzz across social networks today as everyone seems in limbo over who might make it. I'm hoping that I get more than 8/10 correct for once!!

Good Luck to all nations competing tonight! I'm #TeamFirelight and #TeamRiseUp tonight, so a special Good Luck to Greece and Malta!
The second semi final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2014 will start at 21:00 CET and 20:00 BST (on BBC3).

Who will the UK give their 'douze' points to in SF2?

Okay so I am procrastinating again... Well Done Eurovision!

This blog post takes a different look...who will the United Kingdom give their points to in tomorrow night's semi final? This seems a slightly odd blog post, but keep reading folks and you'll see why...

So in tomorrow's semi final, we have:
Malta, Israel, Norway, Georgia, Poland, Austria, Lithuania, Finland, Ireland, Belarus, FYR Macedonia, Switzerland, Greece, Slovenia, and Romania.

NOW the UK's closest neighbour is Ireland, but will the UK give Ireland 12 points tomorrow night? I'd say that this year it really won't be as simple as that.
Other countries that the UK will give points to is: Malta, Lithuania, and Greece. I could guarantee you that the UK will also give something to Romania and probably Poland as well. Now I've already listed 7 countries with a high chance of getting points from the UK. In the past few years, the UK has also given points to those countries with a comical element for Brits: for example, Romania 2013, Moldova 2011 and so on. In this semi final, I'm convinced the UK will respond to Austria and Conchita Wurst - some finding it hilarious that there is a bearded lady representing us, some voting for who Conchita represents, and finally some because of the actual song (and let us not forget that she is singing a James Bond-esque ballad, a British icon). So that takes us to 8. Belarus also stand a good chance of a few comical votes, and Euro fanatics voting in the semi final will try to push Israel through. But then I look back to the list of competing countries and can see the UK also giving points to Norway, Finland and Switzerland. We tend to give points to the Swiss, so them too? And lest we forget the UK jury who could throw it all.

So have I sold the argument to you? Do you agree that the UK's votes are very hard to predict in this year's semi finals? Below is a prediction of where I see the United Kingdom's votes going this year:

UK votes for SF2?
12 - Ireland
10 - Lithuania
8 - Romania
7 - Malta
6 - Greece
5 - Austria
4 - Israel
3 - Poland
2 - Norway
1 - Switzerland

Part VI - Montenegro

The Good Part VI - Montenegro

'Moj Svijet' - Sergej Ćetković

The opening melody to this song is stunningly beautiful. The instrumental sections are very Zelijko Joksimovic and so ethnic that Montenegro can truly fly the flag for the whole of the former Yugoslavs this year! I think many were gutted to see Serbia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, and the like drop out, but in their absence, Montenegro can rise like a phoenix out of the ashes (as Conchita Wurst once sung). And I am so glad that the song is being sung in Montenegrin! With fewer and fewer countries opting to sing entirely in their own language, Montenegro have pulled though! So Podogorica 2015 anyone?

First off - the song has done poorly in online polls. Please can someone tell me why? I know many Eurofanatics who much prefer songs in the home country language, yet people seem to not really care when it comes to Moj Svijet. Perhaps it has ultimately come down to the amount of ballads entered this year; there are some very good ballads this year, such as 'Undo' and 'Dancing in the Rain'. Sergej has a winning card here though - a male ballad will stand out mountains against other female ballads. Montenegro do have that trickier first semi final, however they are the penultimate performers, and they really, really need to capitalise on this. Sergej has come out and said that he really wants Montenegro to reach the final. Well Sergej, if it was up to me, you'd easily make it. And I think Montenegro will make it.

Will they win?

Well I'm ever-increasingly being drawn to the fact that in such a wide open year, who wins will be decided on even the small things. Staging is going to be crucial! I won't look at staging plans and the lark before rehearsals start tomorrow, I want to base my ideas on song alone. The staging really needs to take an uplifting edge, and we definitely need falling sparks at some point - maybe even on the first key change. Oh yeah that's another thing about this song, it's key change heaven, which always goes down well at Eurovision! But back to the staging - it needs to be minimal. I've already made comparisons to Zelijko Joksimovic; Montenegro need to go back and see what worked for him in 2004 and 2012 and even directly copy it if they are so out of ideas.

What else will Montenegro need to win? A favourable draw in the final will be crucial this year and so naturally, anywhere in 16th to 24th (I think most fans agree with me that these 8 positions will be win-defining). The opening instrument needs to be as soft as Sergej's opening vocals; and Montenegro really need to ensure that Sergej's lyrics are heard above all else. That thing about language is coming up again... and it's because singing in your own language will help!

And what Montenegro really needed was a big PR campaign. I don't want this ethnic ballad to get lost like others have in the past. If televoters will really aware of the song before the competition, it would accompany what is sure to be a good jury score because of the simple fact that Sergej has an incredible voice! However, I don't think we need to be in fear of a lack of PR campaign - I think Montenegro will surely reach the final, but winning the thing is different. I don't think Montenegro can win, but I do hope they do bloody well. Good Luck! Good Luck Sergej!

"Back in the USSR"

So with the long anticipated release of Austria's song, 'Rise Like A Phoenix' by Conchita Wust, it means we are still waiting for Russia. The Tomalchevy Twins will sing 'Shine', but they are still yet to premiere the song, despite a promise by eurovision.tv that it would be up yesterday. Russia will be of much interest at this year's Eurovision following their current performance on the global stage. And so I ask...who is going to give Russia points at the contest in May?

First off, let's mention their new anti-gay legislation. Everyone reading this will know all about Russia's interesting ("backwards") law against informing under-18's about homosexuality. If you don't, then it's brilliant explained by Grekov (2013) here.  This is going to have very interesting implications for Eurovision - a competition striving to break free of politics and political stigma. For a start, Eurovision has an extremely large LGBT fanbase, all of whom are not the best fans of Putin at the moment. Countries like the UK will not vote in favour of Russia this year. Despite the best efforts of EBU, politics will play a role in voting patterns like this. The UK gave 10 points to Russia last year, and they were a well deserved 10 points, 'What If' is a beautiful song, but I can't see many picking up the phone to vote for Russia even if they do have a stormer. It's sad really.

And then there's Crimea. The current war has reintroduced many of the old east vs west tensions which we all thought were slowly coming to an end in this ever-increasing globalized world. Again, if you're under-read on the topic, the BBC does explain it pretty well here. Ukraine's voting will be of much interest here - with the nation divided in political turmoil, I hardly see the voting system going un-rigged. Once more, it's really quite sad. But nonetheless, very interesting. Will Ukraine give points to Russia? As I've already established, the facts are that politics will once again play an unhealthy role in deciding the outcome of the result. And then there are the juries - what pressure the juries will be under from Ukraine!? Without doubt they will be heavily burdened by Ukrainian officials, and they will almost very likely be bribed by both Russia and their own political leaders. It seems very apparent that Russia will be marked 1st from the Ukrainian jury - whether or not this results in douze points is a different matter. This flows in nicely to my next point: the juries and the rest of the USSR.

Russia has fortunately many borders - this means that they share much of their culture with a great number of countries. This is especially the case since the fact that many of Russia's closest friends in the contest are former Soviet states. I'm not saying that diaspora voting has been free of politics, especially in the 00s, but the 10s are a new decade, where the right songs have generally done the best. Culturally, Russia has done well from Armenia, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and so forth - all former Soviet states (statistics thanks to ESC Stats - don't forget to vote in their poll!). Where these countries vote in the contest will be of much interest; will countries vote in favour of Russia for fear, in Ukraine for support, or boycott voting for them in protest against Crimean invasion? Additionally, Azerbaijan didn't give Russia any points last year, sparking discussion amongst fans and Azeri officials as to why. The officials were not too impressed by their jury, and this could potentially lead to an unfair swing in favour of Russia at this year's contest by the Azeri jury among others. And we all know how corrupt Azerbaijan's voting has been criticised of in the past, most notably in last year's contest with allegations of paying students to vote for them. The former states of the Soviet Union have a decision to make, and although I initially thought that Russia would do top 3 however poor the song, I am reminded by the consequences of the Iraq invasion by the United Kingdom at the 2003 contest. It was not only the first time the UK finished last, but also the first time we received the old 'nul' points. Quite remarkable considering how a mere 6 years earlier we dominated the contest. Russia's invasion of Crimea will not go down well with the olden Eurovision countries in the west, but the reaction of the former USSR states will speak volumes about how many states view the Russian situation.

It's a sad year for the Eurovision Song Contest - politics will once again become a central issue for the voting and the EBU will undoubtedly be left with quite a headache after the competition has ended. With no country currently hot favourites to win, the contest is wide open; the bookmakers have gone with Armenia, I've seen polls ranking favourites from Hungary to Romania, the UK to Norway, and history tells us that in a year as wide open as this, the draw will become pivotal in deciding the winner. I still stand by the fact that if Azerbaijan and Sweden swapped places in the 2011 draw then Eric Saade would have walked away with the prize instead. If Russia get a favourable draw many will argue corruption and bribery - if Russia get a poor draw many will argue there's political motivation behind their placing. If Russia were to win - well let's cross that bridge in the small chance it'll happen.

But let's not forget that it is the Eurovision SONG contest!

Russia's representatives are the Tomalchevy twins. They are proven performers having won the 2006 Junior Eurovision Song Contest (you can view the video here). Since winning the contest they have gone on to make a name for themselves in the Eastern region of Europe - and people do vote for big names they recognise (forget has been Engelbert Humperdinck, I'm talking about the likes of Kaliopi - FYR Macedonia; Zelijko Joksimovic - Serbia; Patricia Kaas - France) and so when people do vote, they will remember the twins. The chances are that the song will be good as well. Russia have given us some great Eurovision tracks in the last decade and I see this year as no different despite what is happening on the political stage. However, the fact that there is so much speculation about how well Russia do, and who gives them points, indicates the precarious position of the contest this year. Perhaps I am overstating the problem, feel free to share your opinions and comments! Much discussion is very welcome.


Note: the success of the Winter Olympics in Sochi will still be in the minds of televoters and jurors alike - this is likely to play a part but I think the LGBT laws and Crimean invasion are of more pressing points.