Top 5 for 2016 - Day 34

IT'S FREAKING TOMORROW PEOPLE, HOLD YOUR HORSES AND GET EXCITED NOW.

#5 Bulgaria - If Love Was A Crime
Well Bulgaria, you are well and truly back in business. After a two-year absence they are back and looking for only their second qualification since their debut in 2005. Of course we all know their only entry to qualify (see: All-Time Top 5) and If Love Was A Crime has the ability to repeat that success. We are due a fan flop and I pray it's not this for Bulgaria's sake alone, but Poli Genova deserves to do well with a wonderfully lyrical and inspiring song.

#4 Malta - Walk on Water

Yes, I am one of those people who rank this highly. Despite the apparent fan-spiration with the bookies, I haven't met many people who put this in their top 5, or even top 10, and do you know anyone Team Walk on Water (who isn't from Malta?). Ira Losco gave Malta their highest ever finish when she managed 2nd way back in 2002 (since shared after their 2005 result) and could Walk on Water be about to join the Maltese success stories? Quite possibly. I have seen a lot call this the biggest "fanwank" of the year, and while I detest this new catchphrase everyone seems to be throwing around, I can see why people say it is. But I love it and can't wait for it to qualify (even if it will finish bottom 5 aha!)

#3 Russia - You Are The Only One

Russia and France are the two runaways and there is no denying why. Most people have Russia and France in their top 5, if not their top 10, and those that don't are by far the most vocal. They seem to have identified themselves Team Russia and Team France and have fallen for a Team Edward/Jacob style attack on the other team for absolutely no reason. While you will hear the two groups slagging each other off, remember that they are the loudest, and by no mean reflect the rest of the fan community. Enjoy Russia's entry for what it is...Sergey is hot, the song is super fun and super catchy, the production is flawless, the choreography is on point and the performance will be insane. Stop hating, start appreciating y'all. And stop talking about the consequences of if they win. Let them win first, then raise points about their ability to host. Because if we keep talking about "what happens if Russia win", we'll do exactly what we seek the contest not to be, and that's political. Don't politicise the song, because it allows non-fans to do the same.

#2 France - J'ai Cherche

Maybe it's because its France... no wait... definitely because this is France, I think I want this song to win even though it's my number 2, simply because we haven't seen a French entry this strong since maybe 2002, definitely not since 1991, and they haven't won since 1977. And they used to be such a powerhouse. It seems a completely hypocritical thing to say after what I just said about not politicizing the Russian song because it's from Russia, but actually, it's the opposite of what I'm trying to say as this song being French just happens to be a pleasant surprise, that is all. That is not political. People still doubt whether this could win, and we now know that France will be in the first half and this throws even more shade, but either France or Russia will win ('Do The Polls Lie?') and France, in my opinion, will do it. They will be victorious with both the televote and the jurors (proof). If I'm wrong then so be it, but hindsight has always told me to go with my instinct and not to fall prey to emerging entries. And this got my instinct buzzing from first listen. I am yet to play this to someone who doesn't like it as well, which knowing my friends actually means something.

#1 Italy - No Degree of Separation

This has crept up on my soooo hard! I am way #TeamFrancesca and even though I'd be delighted with any of my top 5 winning (actually any song apart from Germany), I think Italy doing it would just be fantastic. It's strange this is my favourite as well, as for so long I was so torn between France and Russia. It was actually my best friend who made me realise my love for it because she told me to stop singing it. I didn't even realise I had been. It's been uber-played on my iTunes, it's been my most sing-along, and my most pleasant surprise, and ultimately has made me fall in love with Francesca. Her song 'Sola' I would highly recommend. She is a special talent and would be a deserved victor in my opinion. Thank you Italy, once again!

Favourite music video from 2016 - Day 32

I must confess... I am not very good at watching the music videos because I just don't care for them that much.

Unfortunately that means it is difficult to choose my favourite as none stand-out. I much prefer to watch performances than videos, and despite Laura Tesoro's funky choreography, my favourite is of course the video I was most anticipating, the song we were all on tenterhooks for, whether you like the guy or not...

Still searching for that thunder and lightning

I feel the thunder and lightning, and yes it's getting exciting. Just look at this beautiful man.

He knows exactly what he is doing.

BUT THERE IS WORK TO BE DONE.

I think we are all familiar with Sergey's choreography for the song by now - and he has been executing it gradually better as the season has gone on. Additionally, he has been performing with a limited stage space, and we all know to expect bigger come the finals. 

___________________________________________________________________________

BUT AMIR, WHAT THE HELL IS THIS!?

Some work to be done by the French delegation before Stockholm too...

Do the polls lie?

As I Brit, I'm naturally expected to ask this question after our GE of 2015 when all preview polls told porkies and everyone was a little surprised by the polarisation in the result. A year on and we're all like "of course the polls were wrong...duh!" but it begs the question of ESC; do the polls lie?

I consider myself a mega fan since 2009. In 2009, I sought all songs pre-contest and ranked them and loved them and ah it was amazing. Then the UK came 5th and that definitely helped my love for the contest. 2011 is arguably the best contest ever, 2012 saw me blog as a result of that, we had Euphoria, and well, the rest you know...

So when it comes to considering the polls, I'll start by taking a look back to the '09 contest to try and reflect what was really happening pre-contest. The ESC World had a big bang on social media in 2011, and wasn't anywhere near as big back in 2009. But I can feel people disagreeing with me already, but come on, ESC wasn't anywhere near as big on social media in 2009 as it is now. Fact(!)


2009 proved to be Norway's Fairytale

As we entered the 2009 contest, there were two bookie favourites; Norway and Greece. The Greeks were represented by Sakis Rouvas who had already come 3rd in 2004 with popular dance song "Shake It". He had then hosted the 2006 contest, and he was a household name. Still is a household name. However his 2009 entrant "This Is Our Night"was being dwarfed in polls by "Fairytale" for Norway, even though it was a good 2nd in many online polls. After the rehearsals, "Fairytale" was a shoe in for victory, and well, we all know the rest. It's has the record for the biggest points win ever. It seems the polls were right.

Other highly placed finishers in 2009 also finished well in polls, and you'd be hard pushed to find a poll that has Iceland, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and even the UK and Estonia outside the top 10/15.


Did Satellite enjoy an expected victory?

Moving on to 2010, and "Satellite" really didn't steam to victory. Germany pulled off a relatively unchallenged win nonetheless, with Turkey, Romania, Denmark, Azerbaijan and Belgium rounding up a fairly 'safe' top six.

Romania and Belgium were a little surprising to finish as high as they did based on pre-contest polls, but the big casualty was Harel Skaat's "Milim" finishing as low as 14th. However, he was by no means a runaway favourite and in fact the polls were very close that year. You'd be hard pressed to find one of the big polls ranking Germany outside the top 5, and a lot had Germany to win. It seems the polls had it around-about pretty spot on, in otherwise a pretty unspectacular year.


2011 had Kati Wolf left thinking; "What about my dreams the POLLS!?"

2011 comes round and I'm biased to talk about it really because I became heavily invested and delighted by the fantastic show. I think the 2011 contest was the best ever, but you already know that. I mentioned in "the biggest fan flops of all time" that undoubtedly Hungary's dramatically low finish is up there with the best flops, but the polls all around were pretty out of it. Kati Wolf may have won a lot of polls, but Estonia were doing well (especially with the bookies), France were the bookies hot fave and were a poll top tenner quite consistently, and even the UK were expected to do so much better. In the end, we all know Azerbaijan stole the show, but for songs this was an incredibly strong year and the polls were very close at points.

What is paramount though, is that Azerbaijan were consistently featured in many top 10s and there was universal acclaim for ESC fans alike that it was a good song and deserved to do well. They didn't start the ESC season well, but by the time we got to Eurovision  Week it was a popular song. People lament them winning, but they frequently appeared high in polls, they just weren't expected to win.

But I think we can say that the polls lied in 2011.


Euphoria

2012 comes around and Euphoria won everything pre-contest, it won everything at the contest, and we really need not say anything about 2012. Perhaps the biggest flop was Pastora Soler for Spain, but 2012 was remembered for being slightly ballad heavy, and that's the biggest case we have for Spain not doing better.


Those who didn't rate Denmark were left with only teardrops

2013 happens and Emmelie de Forest is storming everything for Denmark. The polls start to become a bit more skewed at this point though, with fans swarming for San Valentina - but there was never any real doubt about the winner. The staging was beautiful and looking back through the results, it all seems to make sense.


Fantastrophes in 2014? No, just Conchita...

As a UK fan going into 2014, I was delighted to see Molly not just doing well, but winning a lot of polls. I thought there might be a chance. The bookies had Armenia to win, a lot of people thought Hungary might steal it, everyone predicted a strong finish for Sweden, and the biggest fantastrophe was Israel not qualifying (which is not that great a surprise honestly). But we all fell for the Common Linnets, I had them in my top 10 but was not surprised to see them so low in so many polls, and confess that I didn't see them having much of a chance. And then the performance was just absolute magic, turning a track into pure gold, and on hindsight we're all like "duh!".

And then the Conchita effect. With hindsight, I can't believe I wasn't predicting a win for Austria. It is so obvious post-contest. The performance definitely helped, as the performance is absolutely stunning, but it was Conchita. Of course she was going to win, she was everything at the contest, it was just Conchita... and this was despite not doing that great in polls.

In the end the polls failed to predict success for Austria and the Netherlands. But the polls failed to consider what Conchita Wurst was actually achieving that year, and there was scepticism whether countries like Russia would vote for her. They did, the whole of Eastern Europe did and all fans have learned their lesson.


"Goodbye to victory, there would only be Heroes"

Finally we move into 2015, and Heroes was doing well all over the shot. It was winning most polls, and where it wasn't, the place was often filled by Italy or Estonia. Estonia were unlucky in the end, I think Russia and Italy's draw definitely helped, and Estonia just performed a bit too early for such a heavy 27-song show. However, Russia were predicted to do extremely well, even if the fans didn't rate the song as highly as others. And when it comes to the performance, Estonia is just a bit flat live. Especially when you compare it to the performances of Sweden, Russia, Italy, Belgium and even Australia. It was hard to predict Sweden or Italy not winning, and at the end of the day, if we didn't have juries, Italy would have won the contest. So it seems once more, the polls can hardly be accused of lying.


Dr Chris: Fixing the 2016 Problems?

So how can we apply that to the 2016 season? Well have a look at the polls floating around. Over the next 3 weeks, the Eurovision world on social media will play host to thousands of returning semi-fans, and thousands of brand new fans. The polls are still relatively under-spoken, and the full magnitude of the Eurovision fan world is, I think, just beginning to kick off. It'll be bigger and better than any year previous, and due to that, I think let's hold off reading too much into the polls for another week, and give the bookies a look in about two weeks to start to get a real reflection of what's happening.

That being said, I'll have a crack. Anyone who has seen my page or follows me on Twitter at all knows that I have France and Russia as a lofty one-two. But you can hardly deny that France-Russia are the top two in just about every poll, they are the bookies favourites, and they really are starting to pull away from the rest. The likes of Croatia, Australia, Bulgaria, Iceland and Spain are filling up many top fives, and the overall standard of songs this year is pretty average. The real decisive factor appears to be Ukraine, who are a bit Marmite; you either love it or you hate it.

There is no Conchita effect going on; the standard isn't the greatest so there is little chance of a 2011 repeat; so we can presume based on recent history, that the polls won't be too far out. This leads me to state that both Russia and France will secure top five finishes at minimum.

Neither of the songs are Euphoria, and France-Russia have too much popularity in a ratio comparable to the rest, so we wont see a Milim style flop. The biggest risk for them is to suffer a flop similar to Estonia last year. I think we can all agree that won't happen to Russia, which will for the most part, have undeniably flawless production. France will be a wholly unknown quantity for the broadcasters to predict whether they can win, but the draw won't effect whether this can win or not. We already know this has got crowds at preview shows in full song and dance so will be performed to a very warm reception to TV viewers on the night.


The Innocence of Passion

I appreciate my next comment does have bias because I want France to win; but anyone calling the song "overrated" is, I believe, being naive and to some extent, immature. In 2012, I thought Euphoria was good but was upset because at the time I believe that 2012 was such a strong year and Euphoria didn't deserve to "runaway" with it. Ultimately, I wanted more of a contest. However I wasn't that big a fool to not rate the song, and had it firmly in my top ten. Fast forward to 2013, and Denmark were stealing the pre-contest race, albeit not as strongly as Sweden the year before. Again, I was perhaps a little devastated simply because I didn't think the song deserved to have such a lead because the songs were better once again. For that reason, I actually de-valued the quality of Only Teardrops, calling it the biggest overrated song in the contest.

A few years on from that, and I can't believe that those were my opinions, (1) because Euphoria makes literally everyone euphoric, (2) Only Teardrops is just lovely, and (3) 2012, and 2013 moreso, are with hindsight not that strong. The reason I say it's therefore naive to think France is overrated and isn't going to win, is simply because 2016 just isn't that good a year. People have the same songs over and over again in their top 10. I'm not talking about #1 favourites, I'm talking about top tens, which is something we all love to do because each country at Eurovision awards their top ten their points. For this reason, there are a good handful of countries who could finish top 3, and therefore appear a threat at winning. There are too many songs this year, like 2013, that don't have that "pulling, favouritism" power, especially in comparable quantity to France/Russia. For example, ESC Stats holds the top 10 polled this year with 49.3% of 'favourites', compared to last year's top 10 holding 65.2%. There were too many songs last year that were favourites, reflecting the strength in year and demonstrating why the polls this year are going to be favourably accurate in forseeing a French or Russian win. This is because their strength in popularity plays far greater magnitude in a comparable ratio to other songs.

The polls are a distinct reflection of epistemologically, portraying with authenticity, a positivist choice of quality. They demand an interpretation due to lacking any real ability to assume other's autonomy, and simply, Eurovision has taught me the interpretation can only be assumed as passion. The controversy, the debates, the intensity amongst fans pre-contest has never been so consuming, which can only be depicted as passion. For this reason, I celebrate a naive "overrated" comment. If France or Russia don't win the contest, I'll be damned. But for those saying it is overrated are simply evoking the passion of the contest; you want there to be more of a contest as you don't rate it as highly. And for those saying you "can't see France or Russia winning" you are simply being naive. They are winning the pre-contest polls pretty much everywhere, France are starting to really assail a lead over Russia, and so to say you cant see either of them winning is just optimistically wishing neither would. I'm sorry, but it's true.


What happens when Serhat steals victory and you Chris, look like a complete idiot?

I welcome it. For the very reasons I have laid out, my support for France and Russia will look entirely passionate. If I'm going to be very wrong after the final then so be it! I think there's a good chance they won't both finish top two, simply because there are arguments against both. France's just might not come across as great live, and Russia's lyrics might disenchant the ordinary voter. But I'm not going to start building a defence if my arguments for them winning humiliate me. I'll say it again, humiliation is part and parcel of being a Eurovision fan, because a true fan follows with passion and integrity, and those are two character traits you should never be afraid or ashamed of.


With love.

Russia's Hypocrisy?

Dear readers,

I urge to remind you first and foremost that the Eurovision Song Contest is supposed to be about the songs. A country will choose an artist which best represents their country and culture, and is supposed to disregard the politics and bring Europe TOGETHER.

That being said... we all know the current storm surrounding Conchita Wurst's emphatic victory. In the wise words of Carl Epsen, there is a silent storm in Russia and other former Soviets. Whether they appreciated the song or not, Russians televoted Austria into 3rd place. The juries also marked them 11th. There is obviously anger and disproval over the LGBT laws introduced in Russia last year. I made comments on that at the start of the Eurovision season, but in case you missed that, Russian law now bans "homosexual" propaganda to minors. Because of the law, it would have been considered illegal activity to show Conchita Wurst on television. However, the EBU has hard lines when it comes to not showing all the performances. Remember back in 2005? Lebanon were going to enter, but because their laws state you must not recognise Israel as a country, the Lebanese broadcasters were not going to show the Israeli entry. That would have broken the rules and Lebanon would have faced fines, bans and other disciplinary procedures. So in that case, Russia had no choice. They had to show Conchita on television.

(there were other former states kicking off too - Belarus, considered to be the only dictatorship still operative in Europe, also were very unhappy about Conchita).

BUT as many people are pointing out, Ukraine sent Verka Seduchka in 2007, and Russia sent their very own t.A.T.u in 2003. You could even point out Marija Serifovic in 2007, who represented Serbia. Now for any Eurovisionphobes reading (of which I doubt there are), Verka Seduchka provided the contest with one of the most memorable performances of all time. The act is a drag queen, and Verka is a character, no more. Performing in blinding silver sequins, many will remember Dancing Lasha Tumbai as one of their favourite ever Eurovision entrants. I certainly do. Yet this was deemed ok? Hmmm....

t.A.T.u - remembered by many for their infamous homosexual music video to European smash hit "All The Things She Said", as well as to Eurofans alike for their disrespectful behaviour during the 2003 season. The girls are in fact not lesbians themselves, however have stated that they represented and stood for lesbians. Yet, Russia chose to send them as an artist. Can we really look back 11 years to criticise Russia for their actions following Conchita's win?

I'll also quickly mention the many, many, many LGBT acts that have participated in Eurovision throughout the years. Serbia's Marija won with Molitva in 2007...who can forget DQ representing Denmark also in '07...Ryan Dolan of Ireland in 2013...Harel Skaat of Israel in 2010...way back in 1998, when transgender Dana International stole the show for Israel...the list could go on! The point is, why NOW Russia? There has been anti-gay movements in Russia for a number of years, and there was controversy in 2009 when they hosted. But why after all this time do they kick off?

There are several answers. First of all, it is what Conchita represents. I argued it before the contest and I'll say it again: Conchita Wurst is a different type of drag queen. Whereas others such as Verka were comedy characters, Conchita is not just a character. She identifies her gender as a women, but her sex is still male. If you have a problem with that statement then re-assess yourself. Gender and sex are different, end of. Sex is biological, Gender is social. Disagree with me all you like, but I will stick by that truth. However, Conchita also has a sexuality - her image and performance have a raw sexual energy and it is this why Russia are not happy. This makes the performance more human, less fictional. This makes Conchita's choice seem like an acceptable choice to make; we can be who we want to be.

Secondly, we do have to consider currently political philosophies, tensions and analyse the situation. By voting in the masses for Conchita to win, it is a way of accepting the choices made and endorses a respect. The anti-gay laws made in Russia demonstrate the institutional position of homosexuality, and it can easily be argued that they are backwards laws and "hate" laws. But let's just say Putin isn't a fan. Now, is it hypocrisy to argue that sending t.A.T.u is ok and then rejecting Conchita is right? I will argue there is a certain level of hypocritical thought, but predominantly, there isn't. I made the point earlier that a country is suppose to select a participant based on their culture and national identity. Well t.A.T.u took Europe by storm in 2003 and so they were best placed to represent Russian culture at the time of the 2003 contest. It is so easy to look back with hindsight and judge people, but we live in the present. I'm in no way defending Russian thinking that Conchita is bad and demoralising, but the argument that they are hypocritical isn't strong enough in my opinion. 11 years makes a difference in thinking and culture. If we get into a storm about hypocrisy, then I think it's more a factor that Russia sent a song about putting down your guns and peace in 2013, and then annexed Crimea less than a year later. Of course Russia are going to kick off about Conchita Wurst; it effectively defies the legislation made last year about homosexual propaganda. Speculating that Russia wouldn't be annoyed is like saying you wouldn't be annoyed if you went on a diet and then remembered you paid for a non-refundable tour of the chocolate factory.

Lastly, I bring you to what Eurovison actually is. I want to talk about the Russian proposal to withdraw. In theory, Eurovision is this wonderful show of culture and identity where Europe comes together to battle for a glass trophy and a chance to show off their country. In reality, Eurovision is a chance to make money. People are calling for the UK to quit Eurovision: "we always lose, why do we bother?" is a nonsensical argument because you are thinking that the BBC's prime objective is to win. NO! The BBC's prime objective, no matter what the show is, is to win television ratings and earn money. Do you think they'd still commission shows like Doctor Who if nobody watched it? No, obviously not. The same applies with Eurovision: it is theeee cheapest way of dominating Saturday Night television in the UK. The second objective of the BBC is to win, but only because this will bring more attention and more viewers, equalling more money. Some countries struggle financially to enter the competition, with difficulty in finding sponsorship and so forth. The prime illustration of this is Serbia not qualifying in 2013 resulting in a lack of funding for 2014 participation. The point being made here is that no matter what county, Eurovision is an economic and business platform, with the sole prize making money. You may not like to hear that, but if you truly and realistically assess Eurovision then you know what I'm saying to be true. Another example is Australia - do you really think SBS would air the show if only 1,000 people watched it? Of course they bloody wouldn't. Australians like Eurovision so SBS show it. It's as simple as that: Eurovision is there to make money. And so all these ridiculous calls for Russia to withdraw are just silly. The only way Russia will withdraw is if their is a competition such as Voice of Eurasia would make MORE money than Eurovision. It's hard to say if it will, but it won't. Not in this day and age, especially after Russian people loved Conchita.

I can already hear the opposing argument in one word; Turkvizyon. What is important to remember in this incidence is that the withdrawal move was not political. It was over the fact that Turkey doesn't like the rules of the contest. Now Turkvizyon is an interesting one because it can be argued that surely entering Eurovision would be financially better than creating Turkvizyon; it's got more to do with culture than money perhaps. BUT, I disagree. It's to do with culture, but only in the interest of making money. Turkvizyon is a regional thing promoting Turkish music and Turkish culture. It was designed to grow interest in Turkey as a country, boosting their position and increasing tourism. Turkey constantly did well and yet the only chance they got to show themselves off was in 2004. The reason this is different from the idea of "Voice of Eurasia" is that, that competition will be about political discourse and ideology rather than a promotion of Russian culture. I have a feeling I may not have won you over with this argument, but the way I see it is that Russia want a different contest so far unproposed of financially benefitting the region. Turkey on the other hand created a different contest which does financially benefit the region. Perhaps if the angry Russians supposed a contest which will glamour the former Soviets then I can see the idea start to become more of a reality. However at this moment in time, do not expect Russia to withdraw. They will continue to make silly comments about their displeasure in the result, but it will be nothing more than this.

And with one more analogy, I leave with the title of your number 2; "Calm After The Storm". Remember the Eurovision storm isn't over yet; although in previous years its fizzled out, more people are talking about 2014 because of the controversy. Wait for the storm to die down and then look at Eurovision calmly. The calm after the storm will result in nothing more than Russia withdrawing for a year at most. Don't expect Ukraine to go, the Baltics won't, Moldova won't, and I'm going to predict that the worst will be Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan withdrawing. But the Azeri's will come back next year with a trooper of a ballad, more controversy and a top 5 finish. Belarus are getting Alexander Rybak on board. If they had any chance of winning then they won't leave. Russia will stand alone if they withdraw - but I reckon they won't, because the storm is yet to blow over.


Ooh quick mention to the other gossip - Georgia might get disqualified. Well after talking so much about Turkvizyon, I think it can safely be said that if Georgia do get banned for a year, or even 3 years, then they won't come back. Is that good or is that bad? Well if those sneaky juries get banned then surely that's good, but I don't want participation to decline any more! And plus, let the juries be sneaky if the Georgian televote assured the UK of points. Molly deserved more this year so I'll be selfish and argue that I don't want them to go if they liked her song (WHICH IS AMAZING).

What can we learn from Conchita?

Well it's time to procrastinate once again. You know the Eurovision season stops and I go back into hibernation. Not this year, this year seems bigger, there seems to be more interest and if you're not playing QuizUp then download and we can all start quizzing each other on their new topic of questions: Eurovision (duh?).

So today's blogpost looks at what we can learn from Conchita. Well I say Conchita, I really mean the 2014 season. And I apologise for any readers from outside the UK, as I may predominantly focus on that disappointing 17th place.

IF YOU HAVEN'T GOT MUCH TIME, I'VE DONE A PERFECT SUMMARY DOWN THE BOTTOM. IF NOT, READ ON...

To begin with, 2014 was a good year. In fact, it was a very good year. Like a lot of other fans, I was originally disappointed when I heard all the songs from this year. Then I grew to love Children of the Universe, Freaky Fortune are my new favourite Euroboyband (I guess I could call them that?), Firelight and The Common Linnets have re-excited my love for country music, and dubstep seems to be oozing into the far corners of Europe.
But where was 'Euphoria'? Fairytale? Only Teardrops? Satellite? The recent years have thrown up some true greats, and even when we couldn't decide the winner of the 2011 edition, it is undeniably one of my favourite years as I LOVE so many songs that year. This year we had no clear cut winner, no runaway favourite. Every fan site indicated different answers, you'd go to ESC Stats where they'd be bigging up Sweden...ESC Nation fans voted in their thousands for the UK...the bookmakers were so keen on Armenia taking the victory...WiWiBloggs really buggered it up, rating and voting Ireland so highly...even on this blog (where you can still vote for your favourite, I should definitely remove that poll!) Hungary were the hot favourite. Everywhere you looked though, noone was denying that Conchita was going to do well, even with most predicting a conservative backlash about our famous bearded lady. But that was also the case for Israel, and looked what happened to poor old Mei Finegold. What I'm saying is Sweden and Denmark were so obviously going to win in 2012 and 2013, everyone knew Germany probably had it in the bag in 2010, Norway looked a cert to win in 2009 and when the draw was released, Azerbaijan rocketed to the top of the odds in 2011. This year was different on every level, sure Austria climbed after that magnificent semi final performance, but they weren't the hot favourites even with a couple of hours to go. And they had 11th in the draw. Basically, this year collected all the recent stats since the 2009 rule change and threw them out the window. Are we entering a new era for Eurovision?

(by the way I left out the OGAE poll for a number of reasons; in summary, don't read anything into that bloody poll!)

Onwards and upwards then, what can we expect in 2015?
Well for a start, I'm sure Austria will put on a lavish show for ESC numero 60. It's gonna be special. Jon Ola Sand promised. What about the songs though? Sweden have got quite a reputation to uphold, with 3rd in 2011, 1st in 2012, let's not mention 2013, and 3rd this year. Without doubt Melodifestivalen has turned up a notch since that non-qualification incident in 2010 and so naturally, the Swedes will produce someone popular once more. Fingers crossed Danny Saucedo finally gets his chance! What is going to happen with Azerbaijan? Dilara is probably fuming, and the country probably doesn't like her, or Malta for that matter (no douze points from their "famous" neighbours?). Will Azerbaijan come back stronger and louder? Yes. I predict something resonant of 2009. Other powerhouses Russia and Ukraine can sit comfortably, and we'll probably get something out of them neither terrible nor amazing next year. Greece will give us more whacky selections too, looking at 20th as a blip rather than a trend.
Recent favourites Italy also scored their worst ever performance at a Eurovision. After only coming back in 2011, is this going to be instrumental? Viewing figures still haven't set the world alight, and they are not going to do anything for interest next year. I expect they'll return without caring about this result, and they'll be back to that top 10 next year.
I move on to the rest of the former Soviet bloc now. Belarus look like they are on the up with 2013 and 2014 results. Alexander Rybak has shown interest in selecting Belarus' participant in 2015 and so could we be heading to Minsk? Proven winner... (although that has meant nothing recently, Niamh Kivanagh, Charlotte Perelli, Dana International etc...). Then we have the Baltic states. Well Latvia haven't upped their games, so I think we can expect another non-qualifier from them. Lithuania won't send anything popular and so people will question whether they will qualify...and then they bloody will...and as for Estonia, well, we will probably get a dull ballad next year. Not that Ott and Brigit were dull, but c'mon, more ballads? Oh and I almost forgot Moldova. I am optimistic that Pasha will make a triumphant return. CHISINAU 2015 BITCHES.
Let's move on to the former Yugoslav bloc. Anyone predicting returns from Serbia, Bosnia & H, Croatia, and so on? Well Montenegro will definitely be back with a boring ballad, hoping that is the recipe for success now. I hope the others return, but it really is up in the air. The last time Serbia took a break was after the dissolution of Serbia and Montenegro...they returned with Molitva. If Serbia do return, I reckon there will be Zelijko intervention of some sort. Could we be going back to Belgrade?
I'll stay near the area and mention the other Southern states. Israel? Well I'd give a year off if I were them, but we'll see. Probably won't qualify though. Albania? More of the same no doubt. Bulgaria? Unless you've got Elista & Stoyan, give it another year. Romania? Could be interesting, Paula & Ovi were supposed to do better. Georgia? More bizzare internal selections. Armenia? Back to basics I reckon. More Sirusho, less Lonely Planets and MP3s hopefully. And then there is TURKEY. Well we all know why they quit in the first place, and things will have to change for them to return. I'm doubtful a bearded lady from Austria will inspire their comeback.
Well I'm moving quite quickly through...there's the middle of Europe to think about. Hungary seemed to have enjoy success the last two years, they'll probably stick to the same and produce qualifiers. Poland might just be that country with the Eurovision gems for the next few years. Moldova and Montenegro have treated us with some rare and unusual songs recently, maybe Poland will continue to bring the butter churners? Czech Republic and Slovakia may look at recent results and consider coming back. If Austria can lift the crown, then they can definitely qualify with the right approach. A bearded lady from a neighbouring country may just set alight enough interest. Oh and let's hope Liechtenstein finally get the funding to make their debut. They could be the new San Marino...keep trying and you'll make it. Valentina once said that this will be her last Eurovision whether she qualifies or not. I think San Marino might be represented by someone else next year. And I have a feeling they are going to be really good. Instinctual, don't ask why. Oooh I suppose Switzerland count as the middle. Well, I expect no change from them, it'll be middle of the road, and will either qualify or won't.
Moving on to the west now...and well, not considering the big 5, what on earth is happening? The Netherlands look on course to become the new Eurovision powerhouse with fantastic entries in the last 2 years...Belgium may be taking a leaf out of their book. Malta have been enjoying much success over the last couple, they'll give us something similar to Kurt and Gianluca next year. Unless Chiara comes back again, which no fan should ever rule out. Portugal might take another year out, it's hard to say. In my opinion, they should look to Brazil and should have played off the World Cup this year. That's easy to say with hindsight, but Brazil speak Portugese and are not short of a few stars. Introduce Michel Telo to Europe. Ai Se Eu Te Pego (think I've spelled that correctly) or something similar would storm Eurovision!! Ireland are probably well pissed they didn't qualify and will send a ballad about peace or love (similar to what we heard in the 90s) next year...unless Jedward come back. They promised to give Eurovision another go if they penned their own song. Well if someone teaches them to sit still and write we could be in for something magically brilliant...or magically hilarious.
Little mention to the Nordic countries...continue doing what you're doing. 2 of the 5 Scandinavians will finish in the top 10 at least, I'm once more going to hope Iceland win.

And finally we have the big 5 countries. Spain will send another female ballad if they realise what's good for them...Germany will send up and coming talent, which will probably be quite good...already mentioned Italy...goodness knows how Austria are going to come up with an act to follow Conchita. Unless Conchita performs again, which I doubt very much...France really don't care and will send another fun act...and though the citizens of the UK bemoan once more that "everybody hates us", I beg, beg, beg the BBC to repeat the same procedure. Pick up and coming talent, get them to write the song, give them a shot on the biggest stage in Europe. They'll get fans whoever they are, and with a bit of luck, we might finally do it. Do not send a has-been, do not let the public choose, do not invite Jedward to perform for us, just use BBC Introducing. Or plead to Simon Cowell to use one of his artists. If One Direction enter, we have this. I have just written paragraphs upon paragraphs about the UK selection process, but I deleted it. I wanna keep this short and sweet: the UK is one of the best music exporting countries in the world, with some of the biggest names in music British. There are extremely talented performers up and down the country trying to squeeze into this industry. Most are going to bed at night praying for that opportunity. Those who have decided that music is their passion and that's what they want to do will snap up the chance to get some attention to their talents. Molly Smitten-Downes received exposure to her music and has a steady growing fan base...and she has a record contract now too. Her finishing 17th hasn't lost fans to her music. Give unsigned artists a chance, a platform and ignore the pessimists. The BBC once again dominated Saturday Night Ratings with one of the cheapest shows filling the hot 20:00 to 23:30 slots. They are not withdrawing any time soon.

Well rant over, what about anyone I've forgotten? Shout out for Cyprus to make a return! Will we see any new participants? I think our best hope is Liechtenstein. The Vatican could always send some dancing nuns (guaranteed top 3) but it's more likely I discover a sexual attraction to cows over the next year than the Vatican City even debating entering the contest. Kazakhstan should enter...and Australia should be given a 60th celebration entry, and that chapter is definitely not closed. With no diaspora voting, it would be so interesting to see how the Ozzies vote. As a UK citizen, I'm praying that our English speaking friends give us a nod for at least a couple of points!

Predictions for next year's winner: Sweden, Azerbaijan, Belarus or Serbia (if they come back).
It could be another similar year, wide open and hotly contested, and we could end up with an unprecedented winner. If that's the case, let's hope Iceland or Portugal do it.

Prediction for the big 5: well, they will be automatic qualifiers, I don't see that changing for at least a few more years yet. The UK will finish on the right hand side, as will France and Spain. Germany will finish on the left hand side, and Italy will finish in the top 10.

Prediction Surprises: San Marino will have a good track, and Israel will qualify with a hot male singing a ballad. Lithuania will enter more tripe and qualify, and to their disgust, fan favourite Estonia will miss out again. Ireland will turn fortunes around, as will Moldova, but one of the Nordics will suffer from an early semi final draw and not qualify.

Prediction about the rules: More weighting will be applied to televoting. The countries which finish top 3 in the televote will be guaranteed points even if they are hated by the juries (circa Poland '14).

Prediction for withdrawals: FYR Macedonia might give it a break, Georgia could give it a year, and Albania might call it a day.

Predictions about controversy: Azerbaijan and Armenia will give us more problems. Russia will send something political but still be allowed to enter it, as the Ukraine have done on countless occasions.

Other Predictions: Geri Halliwell will not compete for the UK. Although don't rule out Katrina teaming up with Mike Nolan for a super entry, criticised by Sandie Shaw, and finishing last. Unless Kimberly Rew decides to write it. France will beg Anne-Marie David to give it another crack, but settle for someone similar to Sebastian Tellier. Ireland will send a drag queen, and there'll be jokes amongst fans that it is actually Linda Martin. Johnny Logan will be considered.

So the predictions got a bit silly...but you never know...

POST SEMI FINAL 1 EXCITEMENT (2014 edition)

Good Afternoon readers! Who is still hungover from the excitement of the first semi final last night?

To start with, wasn't last night just spectacular? Its good to have Eurovision back on our TV screens after another year. I personally thought the stage was brilliant; the diamond floor and squared backdrop came across really nicely on TV, and it was used well throughout. The opening sequence was a little cheesy if we're all honest, and I did want it to end much sooner than it did. The hosts looked like they were having fun though. Oh and then there was the interval act. I never find out what the interval acts are and how they're rehearsing as I like to keep some magic for the show. Although forgetful, I thought the interval act was very nice, and the diamonte tracksuit will be remembered for time to come.

But what about the entrants! Well I thought every country gave it their all on the night and should be thoroughly congratulated on an excellent performance. The only exception to that is Andras Kallay-Saunders, who I found personally gave a weak vocal performance. Not too much criticism though, he gave an energetic performance and was rewarded with qualification. I predict that he won last night's semi final.

And that moves me on to the qualifiers!
They were: Armenia, Sweden, Iceland, Russia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, San Marino, Netherlands, Montenegro, Hungary.

Once again I only got 8/10 correct, with San Marino and Iceland replacing Moldova and Estonia. Were there any shock qualifiers? Well in reality, there weren't. I ate my words as I watched Iceland's "Pollaponk" bring the house down! Well they definitely were one of the favourites in my house anyway. I suppose the biggest shock was San Marino qualifying, but I did have them 11th in my pre-semi final prediction so it wasn't much a shock for me. I am so pleased for Valentina Monetta, it's true what they say about being "third time lucky"!

Eurovision fans have been mourning the loss of Tanja and Estonia from the competition, but it definitely felt very much like Cascada and 'Glorious' from last year, so at the most they would have qualified and finished in the bottom 5/6. Tanja had a great choreography, but I think it was a bit too generic and a bit too early on to qualify. As for Moldova! Well I've always got a soft spot for them, and perhaps prediciting 'Wild Soul' in the final was a bit too optimistic. Still I though diaspora voting would carry them through, but perhaps countries like Ukraine and Portugal were a bit too preoccupied with other entrants to send douze points there way. And that brings me to Ukraine...and Russia....

I've never been a fan of 'Tick Tock' but it's definitely a good song when performed, and we know the Ukrainians would provide some of the best staging yet again. The Giant Hamster Wheel went down like a storm and although in reality rather simple, it visually works perfect for a TV audience. And plus, Mariya is a very pretty girl, always guaranteed votes for being mega hot. Did Ukraine give Russia 12 points is the question? Well, who gave Russia points? Russia would always benefit from a generous diaspora vote, and former Soviets are likely to give them points. Plus, no matter how much Eurovision fans don't like the song/boycott the Russian entry, 'Shine' has all the elements that an Eastern European jury will marvel in, and two attractive blonde twins will go down well with males across Europe. I don't think the Russians squeezed into the final, but I still don't predict they will take the roof off in the final. I could see Russia finishing 14th or something, just missing out on a left-hand side position. The booing that the twins experienced when they were announced as qualifiers was absolutely disgusting. Booing Aram MP3 for 'potentially' homophobic remarks at Eurovision In Concert is one thing, but booing an act for making the final is just awful. There are many ways to express your current discontent with Russia, and Eurovision is not one of them. I say Good Luck to the twins for the final!

On a more positive note, who do you think just missed out on qualification to the final? Jan Ola Sand has since tweeted that there were just 3 points separating 10th, 11th and 12th last night. This means that two countries were agonisingly close to qualifying! My money is on Estonia and Moldova, but I've heard a number of combinations from the 6 countries who were unfortunate not to make it.

Finally we come to the first half, second half draw for the final. I've heard many UK fans say that the draw was fate, and well if we're honest, having quite a few favourites draw to perform in the first half makes it look even more positive for the UK. The draw so far looks like this:

First Half
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Germany
Iceland
Montenegro
Sweden
Ukraine
(6 slots left)

Second Half
France
Hungary
Italy
Netherlands
Russia
San Marino
Spain
United Kingdom
23. Denmark (randomly drawn before the semi finals began)
(4 slots left)


Well as you all know, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Sweden and Ukraine all performing in the first half means that one of them will not make the top 10, if not more. Performing in the second half has always been more beneficial, but it's not the be all and end all. However, the producers do now have a bit of a headache, having to select to choose where each of them performs. But as I said, they wont all do well. Is this the first year Azerbaijan wont make the top 10? Will they even finish on the left-hand side?
The second half of the draw does look very pretty for Molly and the UK at the moment. The only big rival is Hungary, and I have a sneaky feeling they might steal it this year. 'Running' is very well polished, and I think it could chart all over Europe...and that reminds me! Charts! I'm sure you've all heard how the Common Linnets are charting everywhere! This is brilliant news! The odds for the Dutch to win are falling rapidly, and could we be heading to the land of the orange next year? I'll be the first to admit that I never saw this coming. But Congratulations to them! They have a second half performance too, is it all falling into place for the Netherlands at the right time? I gave their staging a maximum 20/20 in my pre-contest scoring prediction, and I can see the juries lapping it up...but it seems televoters are too. All will be revealed Saturday, it's just too exciting!

Well the next semi final kicks off the same time at 20:00 CET and 21:00 BST on Thursday 8th May. We'll be joined by the final 10 qualifiers for the final on Saturday. It's a close one this year, no more close than the second semi final. Here are my predictions again:
Malta, Israel, Norway, Poland, Austria, Lithuania, Finland, Ireland, Greece and Romania. But I think it's impossible to predict. I could get just 5/10 or I could get the max 10/10 right.

And now back to revision I go, procrastination can survive no longer!

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Part 1 - Hungary

Another week has past and it's been another exciting week of Eurovision madness! From allegations over corruption at Portugal's National Final, to the sudden rush of online polls, Eurovision In Concert line-up announcements, more debate over Russia, and finally the all important semi-final draw. In my opinion, the contest can be won by the song alone, but more often than not, the occasional exogenous factor will come into play, whether that be from artist promotion to favourable odds. Therefore, I shall be doing song reviews once more. I'll review the good songs this year, the bad songs this year, and that odd one or two which more often than not pop up. To begin, I'll look at "The Good".


And so, welcome to the first edition of this year's "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly"!


The Good Part I: Hungary

Hungary - 'Running' by Andras Kallay-Saunders

My Birthday falls on February 21st and that usually coincides with the start of my Eurovision season. By this, I refer to the fact that national finals have already taken place, some country's selecting as early as December, but my own interest won't kick off till around the end of February. But in all fairness, the end of February/start of March usually brings with it a rush of 'Eurovisioning' across the EBU nations. I remember hearing 'Running' as Hungary's selection around about the time of my birthday and thinking "This is the winner". Since then, my opinion on the song has changed, and lots more countries have released their songs, but when it comes down to the final, a lot of televoters are hearing the song for the first time. If they get the same first impression that I did then perhaps Hungary are on the way to victory! And they surely deserve it! Fans alike will remember Frederika from the 90s, 'Unsubstantial Blues' from '07, and the casualty that was Kati Wolf and 'What About My Dreams?' back in 2011. That fan favourite had an almighty flop in the final. Recent history has shown that Hungarians are very serious about the contest and they enter a good standard of song. I personally see 'Running' as no different to this, with an emotional tale of young girl suffering from abuse. The artist delivers an emotional connection to the song, and as well as that, the composition has broad appeal. Lyrically, the song delivers on a simplistic chorus and an explicit verse, but some have argued that the melody and lyrics don't go together, perhaps maybe too opposing for a Eurovision audience to grapple. However, I argue that Hungary have got a recipe for success with this song; and let's not forget the artist himself. Andras comes from a musical family, as well as the fact that he is a national popstar in Hungary. With chart-topping hits and a celeb status in his own right, Andras has the experience to succeed in Copenhagen. And he is a pretty good-looking chap, something which always goes down well with Eurovision fans (e.g. Farid Mammadov). The turn of the millennium saw many first-time winners, maybe it's time for Hungary to taste some of that success. Good Luck to Andras and 'Running' in May, and Good Luck to Hungary! Budapest 2015 anyone?

"Back in the USSR"

So with the long anticipated release of Austria's song, 'Rise Like A Phoenix' by Conchita Wust, it means we are still waiting for Russia. The Tomalchevy Twins will sing 'Shine', but they are still yet to premiere the song, despite a promise by eurovision.tv that it would be up yesterday. Russia will be of much interest at this year's Eurovision following their current performance on the global stage. And so I ask...who is going to give Russia points at the contest in May?

First off, let's mention their new anti-gay legislation. Everyone reading this will know all about Russia's interesting ("backwards") law against informing under-18's about homosexuality. If you don't, then it's brilliant explained by Grekov (2013) here.  This is going to have very interesting implications for Eurovision - a competition striving to break free of politics and political stigma. For a start, Eurovision has an extremely large LGBT fanbase, all of whom are not the best fans of Putin at the moment. Countries like the UK will not vote in favour of Russia this year. Despite the best efforts of EBU, politics will play a role in voting patterns like this. The UK gave 10 points to Russia last year, and they were a well deserved 10 points, 'What If' is a beautiful song, but I can't see many picking up the phone to vote for Russia even if they do have a stormer. It's sad really.

And then there's Crimea. The current war has reintroduced many of the old east vs west tensions which we all thought were slowly coming to an end in this ever-increasing globalized world. Again, if you're under-read on the topic, the BBC does explain it pretty well here. Ukraine's voting will be of much interest here - with the nation divided in political turmoil, I hardly see the voting system going un-rigged. Once more, it's really quite sad. But nonetheless, very interesting. Will Ukraine give points to Russia? As I've already established, the facts are that politics will once again play an unhealthy role in deciding the outcome of the result. And then there are the juries - what pressure the juries will be under from Ukraine!? Without doubt they will be heavily burdened by Ukrainian officials, and they will almost very likely be bribed by both Russia and their own political leaders. It seems very apparent that Russia will be marked 1st from the Ukrainian jury - whether or not this results in douze points is a different matter. This flows in nicely to my next point: the juries and the rest of the USSR.

Russia has fortunately many borders - this means that they share much of their culture with a great number of countries. This is especially the case since the fact that many of Russia's closest friends in the contest are former Soviet states. I'm not saying that diaspora voting has been free of politics, especially in the 00s, but the 10s are a new decade, where the right songs have generally done the best. Culturally, Russia has done well from Armenia, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and so forth - all former Soviet states (statistics thanks to ESC Stats - don't forget to vote in their poll!). Where these countries vote in the contest will be of much interest; will countries vote in favour of Russia for fear, in Ukraine for support, or boycott voting for them in protest against Crimean invasion? Additionally, Azerbaijan didn't give Russia any points last year, sparking discussion amongst fans and Azeri officials as to why. The officials were not too impressed by their jury, and this could potentially lead to an unfair swing in favour of Russia at this year's contest by the Azeri jury among others. And we all know how corrupt Azerbaijan's voting has been criticised of in the past, most notably in last year's contest with allegations of paying students to vote for them. The former states of the Soviet Union have a decision to make, and although I initially thought that Russia would do top 3 however poor the song, I am reminded by the consequences of the Iraq invasion by the United Kingdom at the 2003 contest. It was not only the first time the UK finished last, but also the first time we received the old 'nul' points. Quite remarkable considering how a mere 6 years earlier we dominated the contest. Russia's invasion of Crimea will not go down well with the olden Eurovision countries in the west, but the reaction of the former USSR states will speak volumes about how many states view the Russian situation.

It's a sad year for the Eurovision Song Contest - politics will once again become a central issue for the voting and the EBU will undoubtedly be left with quite a headache after the competition has ended. With no country currently hot favourites to win, the contest is wide open; the bookmakers have gone with Armenia, I've seen polls ranking favourites from Hungary to Romania, the UK to Norway, and history tells us that in a year as wide open as this, the draw will become pivotal in deciding the winner. I still stand by the fact that if Azerbaijan and Sweden swapped places in the 2011 draw then Eric Saade would have walked away with the prize instead. If Russia get a favourable draw many will argue corruption and bribery - if Russia get a poor draw many will argue there's political motivation behind their placing. If Russia were to win - well let's cross that bridge in the small chance it'll happen.

But let's not forget that it is the Eurovision SONG contest!

Russia's representatives are the Tomalchevy twins. They are proven performers having won the 2006 Junior Eurovision Song Contest (you can view the video here). Since winning the contest they have gone on to make a name for themselves in the Eastern region of Europe - and people do vote for big names they recognise (forget has been Engelbert Humperdinck, I'm talking about the likes of Kaliopi - FYR Macedonia; Zelijko Joksimovic - Serbia; Patricia Kaas - France) and so when people do vote, they will remember the twins. The chances are that the song will be good as well. Russia have given us some great Eurovision tracks in the last decade and I see this year as no different despite what is happening on the political stage. However, the fact that there is so much speculation about how well Russia do, and who gives them points, indicates the precarious position of the contest this year. Perhaps I am overstating the problem, feel free to share your opinions and comments! Much discussion is very welcome.


Note: the success of the Winter Olympics in Sochi will still be in the minds of televoters and jurors alike - this is likely to play a part but I think the LGBT laws and Crimean invasion are of more pressing points.

Russia - 2012

I thought they were the Spice Girls.

Ha ha, the Spice Girls were around 15 years ago now, could be them...

No, all jokes aside, this is a group of ladies in a group called "Buranovskiye Babushki". They will perform the song "Party For Everybody" in Baku. I sure as hell want to be partying with them! Aren't they just fantastic!? The oldest member of the group is 76 years old, which coincidentally is the age that Engelbert Humperdinck turned recently too! Known as "the Grannies", they fought off competition from Dima Bilan and a member of t.A.T.u to book their place in ESC 2012. As you can imagine, there is significant hype around them!

The group usually perform in the Udmurt language, and have kept to this for Eurovision as they sing in Udmurt. However, after the start (which will grab everyone's attention as it's hilarious!) they break into singing about getting ready for a party (I think) before going into a chorus which should get everyone off their feet, belting about a Party For Everybody. To be honest though, I'm not even that fussed about what they are singing about, the whole thing is just brilliant. I think the fact that the majority of the song is in Udmurt is absolutely brilliant! It keeps them sticking to their cultural and traditional backgrounds, showing off the artists they want to be. Can we take them seriously? Not really. But do we LOVE IT? YES WE DO!

In Azerbaijan, these Grannies will put on a brilliant show! Their performance will show off just who they are and what they can do at their age, and their staging will be good too. They perform in the second half of the first semi final, and so I can't see them having a problem qualifying. In fact, it doesn't really matter where they perform in the contest, because all audiences will of course remember those amazing Grannies! I'm hoping they perform 2nd if they reach the final, because it really will be battle of the oldies between the Hump and the Grannies! Ha ha, that will be brilliant!

Now I'm going to start being a bit more realistic...I just get so carried away with them! ...the song really isn't a big number1 hit and I can't think of anyone having this on as a track they listen to. It truly is a novelty act which I know we all want to do well. And so don't take my song rating seriously because even though the song isn't that good, the Grannies are such fun! You may also think my liklihood to win rating is low, but there are a lot of pretty good songs this year which may mean a novelty act won't steal the win. Something rare has to happen for them to win, as I'm unsure if they can repeat Lordi's dramatic 2006 win for Finland.

Song Rating: 5/10
Liklihood to win: 6/10

Current odds: 8-1                       (oddschecker.com) (on average)