Tick Tock, it's Unfair O'Clock

Why It's Finally Time To Say Good Bye to the Big Five...

Before the start of the 2016 ESC season, you wouldn't have found a greater advocate for keeping the big 5 than me. I was a massive Eurofan with a massively controversial Eurovision opinion. And while I find it funny to ridicule the ridiculous-ness of the atrocity from Armenia, or enrage at the love thrown towards Jamala, her inability to move and her Suus-esque wailing in the last 30 seconds of 1944, it's not cool or funny to be controversial about the big 5. That's why I stated my reasons and spoke little of it, on this blog and Twitter.

However, I have done a 180. No longer shall I dwindle in the shadows. It's time to face the reality:

The Big Five is the Big Eurovision Problem. 

From this moment on I shall talk about the UK from a UK perspective. Perhaps someone from France, Germany, Italy and Spain can assist, but our overall success has been overall non-existent. That is if you exclude Italy, whose remarkable return to Eurovision has seen four top 10 placings, and surely a deserved top 10 from the new sweetheart of Eurovision, Francesca Michielin.

But it can surely be argued that Italy take it the most seriously of the top 5! They choose artists who have competed at the SanRemo Music Festival, which if you know your Eurovision, was actually the inspiration for the ESC. And since Italy returned, the only year they decided not to go through Sanremo was 2014, when poor Emma scored their lowest position in the history of the contest (ignoring of course the legendary Domenico Modugno's infamous nil pointe of 1966 - and that still is arguably the best nil pointe in the history of the contest, see: "The Best Nul Pointe").

So why don't the UK, France, Germany and Spain take it more seriously? Although I will now rephrase that to just the UK, there are similarities across these countries. One obvious reason is because we don't have to! We automatically qualify for the final so there is no need to take it as seriously as Russia or Sweden. But I'm not advocating begging at Adele's footsteps until she agrees, I'm just advocating a stronger national pride for the contest.

Ultimately, the BBC doesn't need to put on a lavish national final with us choosing between Chris Martin and Jessie J. The reason is because even if we sent someone the producers found busking on the street, the country will inevitably and despite how awkwardly, get behind them and wish them well. We will still throw Eurovision parties and the BBC will still dominate Saturday night TV ratings. Put quite simply, taking part in Eurovision is the easiest decision the BBC has to make - not only is it fifty times cheaper than an episode of Doctor Who, it will easily outstrip main rivals ITV. 

A Semi Loss of Final Ratings

One of the biggest fears with Eurovision is that the big five contributors to the EBU will want to stop competing. And whether you want to hear it or not, that would damage the credibility and popularity of the contest - so you do want the UK, FR, DE, IT and ES in the competition. 

The problem is, and I can only speak from a UK viewpoint, if we didn't make the final because we failed to qualify, there is a very, very strong possibility that the BBC would lose Saturday night ratings. That is the terrifying tragedy. If people in the UK stop watching Eurovision because we are not in it, the BBC then has to do one of two things.

1) Drop the show. It isn't valuable enough.

2) Try much, much harder to qualify the following year. 

The outcome? They would have to try option 2. If the BBC even dared stop competing, you can bet that ITV would pick up the contest faster than you can say Boom-Bang-A-Bang. And there is no way in hell that the BBC would want ITV to beat them on Saturday night ratings with the Eurovision Song Contest. ITV would be clever enough to throw the kitchen sink at it, send some super group formed by a Simon Cowell talent show series, dominate ratings and try to win Eurovision. And then ITV wouldn't drop it, and the BBC would have lost.

Eurovision is Money

I'll leave here with some final thoughts. Unfortunately the Eurovision Song Contest is first and foremost about making money. If the EBU didn't think it made enough money it wouldn't run the competition. But the best thing about Eurovision is that it can grow with this crazy world of social media, and will become the most tweeted, most mentioned, most discussed thing, all over the world on Saturday evening. That's how it is growing exponentially at the moment, and advancing to make more and more money.

In order to make money, it doesn't have to be taken seriously by countries like the UK, because even if we send terrible and do terrible, people from the UK will still watch it. But the EBU is missing an absolutely golden reward - make the UK take it more seriously, and reap the rewards of potentially a big household name taking to the stage and pulling in viewers. It's a risk, but a hell of a risk to worth trying: with Australia now competing, and China and the US broadcasting, and JT interval-ling, it's a risk that's never been better to take. And if France win, could 2017 finally be the year to end the big 5 automatic qualification?

When the big four was introduced, it was because Germany, a country who'd been in it every year since dot were excluded. And that was wholly unfair at the time. But that was in 1998. We are now in 2016. Times have changed, the contest has evolved twice since the late 90s. Let's start making changes for the better because the contest is only growing and growing. The EBU just need to be brave enough.

With Love.

Only 7 months to go!

So the Eurovision Song Contest is an agonising 7 months away. I know I'm not the only one saddened by this damming statistic. Still, there's reason for optimism!

We have some returnees! Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia and Cyprus. Eurofanatics will be extremely excited by this news, I certainly am. It's good to see the former Yugoslav bloc coming back together, simply because the Bosnians and Serbians have given us some absolute treasures in the past so we will all keep our fingers crossed for more gems next year. The last time Serbia "returned" to the contest was 2007, and there is absolute no denial that Molitva was a defining Eurovision winner for Serbia. An absolute smasher of a ballad, sung in the national language, by a member of the LGBT community. More Molitva please.

And as for Cyprus! Well what a relief for Greece, douze points again! How the Cypriots are Eurovision this year is remarkable, but then we can say that for most countries, most notably the Greeks who despite all their financial hardship, give us something to remember each year. When Cyprus do it right, they do it good. I'm still singing La La La La La La La La La Love.

So what about the withdrawals?

Well it's time for sorrow everyone. Let's take a minute's silence, just as we did for Slovenia in 2009, for the withdrawal of Ukraine. Ukraine! They have one of the best records in Eurovision and I love so many of their entrants. I'm so gutted that we know we're not going to see a Verka revival or Zlata nonsensical tune that I hope Moldova step in and really bring a wonderfully bonkers song as good neighbours. I'm also hoping that because if any avid readers of my blog already know, I love Moldova and have a soft spot for them every year. Chisinau 2016. Let's keep our fingers crossed!

Other than that, it's all good. Russia still lurk, Georgia escaped a ban, Sweden are already exciting us for MF, and Austria have to bring it as hosts. That could be interesting. 38 countries have confirmed, which is brilliant news, and in less than a month, FYR Macedonia will already have revealed their representative. No excuses this year, Macedonia have to do well because they have 6 months to promote their candidate. Maybe they've planned so far in advance so they can teach their representative to sing, a quality often lacking. Sorry to be so crude.

Any hope for the United Kingdom this year then? Well, before we get pessimistic and start talking about how we have no hope and need to withdraw, let's remember what a fantastic artist Molly is and what an incredible platform it gave her! Hopefully we will hear more from her soon, cos let's face it, we all know it'll be great. So saying all of that gives me optimism! The glass is half full guys. Are we going to win? Hell no. We've got a greater chance of not qualifying than winning, and considering we have automatic qualification, that should put our chances in perspective. I'm optimistic because the BBC are using the same internal selection again. A credible artist will be chosen, and along it we will discover another one of our many hidden talents, and with that comes respect. If we continue along this successful path, countries will sit up and listen. And eventually it will pay off. So what if it takes us a couple of years to reach the top 5 again? So what if it takes us 10 years to even be within a shout of winning it? Only Russia, Sweden, and Azerbaijan should be disappointed with a placing outside the top 5, and when 38 countries take part, winning is hard and not regular. So UK readers, shut up and enjoy the fact that the BBC are taking it serious for once! "It's not about the winning..."

So after a quick update of the 2015 season, I'll leave you with the new motto:

BUILDING BRIDGES.

And we shall build bridges Vienna, we shall.

Russia's Hypocrisy?

Dear readers,

I urge to remind you first and foremost that the Eurovision Song Contest is supposed to be about the songs. A country will choose an artist which best represents their country and culture, and is supposed to disregard the politics and bring Europe TOGETHER.

That being said... we all know the current storm surrounding Conchita Wurst's emphatic victory. In the wise words of Carl Epsen, there is a silent storm in Russia and other former Soviets. Whether they appreciated the song or not, Russians televoted Austria into 3rd place. The juries also marked them 11th. There is obviously anger and disproval over the LGBT laws introduced in Russia last year. I made comments on that at the start of the Eurovision season, but in case you missed that, Russian law now bans "homosexual" propaganda to minors. Because of the law, it would have been considered illegal activity to show Conchita Wurst on television. However, the EBU has hard lines when it comes to not showing all the performances. Remember back in 2005? Lebanon were going to enter, but because their laws state you must not recognise Israel as a country, the Lebanese broadcasters were not going to show the Israeli entry. That would have broken the rules and Lebanon would have faced fines, bans and other disciplinary procedures. So in that case, Russia had no choice. They had to show Conchita on television.

(there were other former states kicking off too - Belarus, considered to be the only dictatorship still operative in Europe, also were very unhappy about Conchita).

BUT as many people are pointing out, Ukraine sent Verka Seduchka in 2007, and Russia sent their very own t.A.T.u in 2003. You could even point out Marija Serifovic in 2007, who represented Serbia. Now for any Eurovisionphobes reading (of which I doubt there are), Verka Seduchka provided the contest with one of the most memorable performances of all time. The act is a drag queen, and Verka is a character, no more. Performing in blinding silver sequins, many will remember Dancing Lasha Tumbai as one of their favourite ever Eurovision entrants. I certainly do. Yet this was deemed ok? Hmmm....

t.A.T.u - remembered by many for their infamous homosexual music video to European smash hit "All The Things She Said", as well as to Eurofans alike for their disrespectful behaviour during the 2003 season. The girls are in fact not lesbians themselves, however have stated that they represented and stood for lesbians. Yet, Russia chose to send them as an artist. Can we really look back 11 years to criticise Russia for their actions following Conchita's win?

I'll also quickly mention the many, many, many LGBT acts that have participated in Eurovision throughout the years. Serbia's Marija won with Molitva in 2007...who can forget DQ representing Denmark also in '07...Ryan Dolan of Ireland in 2013...Harel Skaat of Israel in 2010...way back in 1998, when transgender Dana International stole the show for Israel...the list could go on! The point is, why NOW Russia? There has been anti-gay movements in Russia for a number of years, and there was controversy in 2009 when they hosted. But why after all this time do they kick off?

There are several answers. First of all, it is what Conchita represents. I argued it before the contest and I'll say it again: Conchita Wurst is a different type of drag queen. Whereas others such as Verka were comedy characters, Conchita is not just a character. She identifies her gender as a women, but her sex is still male. If you have a problem with that statement then re-assess yourself. Gender and sex are different, end of. Sex is biological, Gender is social. Disagree with me all you like, but I will stick by that truth. However, Conchita also has a sexuality - her image and performance have a raw sexual energy and it is this why Russia are not happy. This makes the performance more human, less fictional. This makes Conchita's choice seem like an acceptable choice to make; we can be who we want to be.

Secondly, we do have to consider currently political philosophies, tensions and analyse the situation. By voting in the masses for Conchita to win, it is a way of accepting the choices made and endorses a respect. The anti-gay laws made in Russia demonstrate the institutional position of homosexuality, and it can easily be argued that they are backwards laws and "hate" laws. But let's just say Putin isn't a fan. Now, is it hypocrisy to argue that sending t.A.T.u is ok and then rejecting Conchita is right? I will argue there is a certain level of hypocritical thought, but predominantly, there isn't. I made the point earlier that a country is suppose to select a participant based on their culture and national identity. Well t.A.T.u took Europe by storm in 2003 and so they were best placed to represent Russian culture at the time of the 2003 contest. It is so easy to look back with hindsight and judge people, but we live in the present. I'm in no way defending Russian thinking that Conchita is bad and demoralising, but the argument that they are hypocritical isn't strong enough in my opinion. 11 years makes a difference in thinking and culture. If we get into a storm about hypocrisy, then I think it's more a factor that Russia sent a song about putting down your guns and peace in 2013, and then annexed Crimea less than a year later. Of course Russia are going to kick off about Conchita Wurst; it effectively defies the legislation made last year about homosexual propaganda. Speculating that Russia wouldn't be annoyed is like saying you wouldn't be annoyed if you went on a diet and then remembered you paid for a non-refundable tour of the chocolate factory.

Lastly, I bring you to what Eurovison actually is. I want to talk about the Russian proposal to withdraw. In theory, Eurovision is this wonderful show of culture and identity where Europe comes together to battle for a glass trophy and a chance to show off their country. In reality, Eurovision is a chance to make money. People are calling for the UK to quit Eurovision: "we always lose, why do we bother?" is a nonsensical argument because you are thinking that the BBC's prime objective is to win. NO! The BBC's prime objective, no matter what the show is, is to win television ratings and earn money. Do you think they'd still commission shows like Doctor Who if nobody watched it? No, obviously not. The same applies with Eurovision: it is theeee cheapest way of dominating Saturday Night television in the UK. The second objective of the BBC is to win, but only because this will bring more attention and more viewers, equalling more money. Some countries struggle financially to enter the competition, with difficulty in finding sponsorship and so forth. The prime illustration of this is Serbia not qualifying in 2013 resulting in a lack of funding for 2014 participation. The point being made here is that no matter what county, Eurovision is an economic and business platform, with the sole prize making money. You may not like to hear that, but if you truly and realistically assess Eurovision then you know what I'm saying to be true. Another example is Australia - do you really think SBS would air the show if only 1,000 people watched it? Of course they bloody wouldn't. Australians like Eurovision so SBS show it. It's as simple as that: Eurovision is there to make money. And so all these ridiculous calls for Russia to withdraw are just silly. The only way Russia will withdraw is if their is a competition such as Voice of Eurasia would make MORE money than Eurovision. It's hard to say if it will, but it won't. Not in this day and age, especially after Russian people loved Conchita.

I can already hear the opposing argument in one word; Turkvizyon. What is important to remember in this incidence is that the withdrawal move was not political. It was over the fact that Turkey doesn't like the rules of the contest. Now Turkvizyon is an interesting one because it can be argued that surely entering Eurovision would be financially better than creating Turkvizyon; it's got more to do with culture than money perhaps. BUT, I disagree. It's to do with culture, but only in the interest of making money. Turkvizyon is a regional thing promoting Turkish music and Turkish culture. It was designed to grow interest in Turkey as a country, boosting their position and increasing tourism. Turkey constantly did well and yet the only chance they got to show themselves off was in 2004. The reason this is different from the idea of "Voice of Eurasia" is that, that competition will be about political discourse and ideology rather than a promotion of Russian culture. I have a feeling I may not have won you over with this argument, but the way I see it is that Russia want a different contest so far unproposed of financially benefitting the region. Turkey on the other hand created a different contest which does financially benefit the region. Perhaps if the angry Russians supposed a contest which will glamour the former Soviets then I can see the idea start to become more of a reality. However at this moment in time, do not expect Russia to withdraw. They will continue to make silly comments about their displeasure in the result, but it will be nothing more than this.

And with one more analogy, I leave with the title of your number 2; "Calm After The Storm". Remember the Eurovision storm isn't over yet; although in previous years its fizzled out, more people are talking about 2014 because of the controversy. Wait for the storm to die down and then look at Eurovision calmly. The calm after the storm will result in nothing more than Russia withdrawing for a year at most. Don't expect Ukraine to go, the Baltics won't, Moldova won't, and I'm going to predict that the worst will be Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan withdrawing. But the Azeri's will come back next year with a trooper of a ballad, more controversy and a top 5 finish. Belarus are getting Alexander Rybak on board. If they had any chance of winning then they won't leave. Russia will stand alone if they withdraw - but I reckon they won't, because the storm is yet to blow over.


Ooh quick mention to the other gossip - Georgia might get disqualified. Well after talking so much about Turkvizyon, I think it can safely be said that if Georgia do get banned for a year, or even 3 years, then they won't come back. Is that good or is that bad? Well if those sneaky juries get banned then surely that's good, but I don't want participation to decline any more! And plus, let the juries be sneaky if the Georgian televote assured the UK of points. Molly deserved more this year so I'll be selfish and argue that I don't want them to go if they liked her song (WHICH IS AMAZING).

What can we learn from Conchita?

Well it's time to procrastinate once again. You know the Eurovision season stops and I go back into hibernation. Not this year, this year seems bigger, there seems to be more interest and if you're not playing QuizUp then download and we can all start quizzing each other on their new topic of questions: Eurovision (duh?).

So today's blogpost looks at what we can learn from Conchita. Well I say Conchita, I really mean the 2014 season. And I apologise for any readers from outside the UK, as I may predominantly focus on that disappointing 17th place.

IF YOU HAVEN'T GOT MUCH TIME, I'VE DONE A PERFECT SUMMARY DOWN THE BOTTOM. IF NOT, READ ON...

To begin with, 2014 was a good year. In fact, it was a very good year. Like a lot of other fans, I was originally disappointed when I heard all the songs from this year. Then I grew to love Children of the Universe, Freaky Fortune are my new favourite Euroboyband (I guess I could call them that?), Firelight and The Common Linnets have re-excited my love for country music, and dubstep seems to be oozing into the far corners of Europe.
But where was 'Euphoria'? Fairytale? Only Teardrops? Satellite? The recent years have thrown up some true greats, and even when we couldn't decide the winner of the 2011 edition, it is undeniably one of my favourite years as I LOVE so many songs that year. This year we had no clear cut winner, no runaway favourite. Every fan site indicated different answers, you'd go to ESC Stats where they'd be bigging up Sweden...ESC Nation fans voted in their thousands for the UK...the bookmakers were so keen on Armenia taking the victory...WiWiBloggs really buggered it up, rating and voting Ireland so highly...even on this blog (where you can still vote for your favourite, I should definitely remove that poll!) Hungary were the hot favourite. Everywhere you looked though, noone was denying that Conchita was going to do well, even with most predicting a conservative backlash about our famous bearded lady. But that was also the case for Israel, and looked what happened to poor old Mei Finegold. What I'm saying is Sweden and Denmark were so obviously going to win in 2012 and 2013, everyone knew Germany probably had it in the bag in 2010, Norway looked a cert to win in 2009 and when the draw was released, Azerbaijan rocketed to the top of the odds in 2011. This year was different on every level, sure Austria climbed after that magnificent semi final performance, but they weren't the hot favourites even with a couple of hours to go. And they had 11th in the draw. Basically, this year collected all the recent stats since the 2009 rule change and threw them out the window. Are we entering a new era for Eurovision?

(by the way I left out the OGAE poll for a number of reasons; in summary, don't read anything into that bloody poll!)

Onwards and upwards then, what can we expect in 2015?
Well for a start, I'm sure Austria will put on a lavish show for ESC numero 60. It's gonna be special. Jon Ola Sand promised. What about the songs though? Sweden have got quite a reputation to uphold, with 3rd in 2011, 1st in 2012, let's not mention 2013, and 3rd this year. Without doubt Melodifestivalen has turned up a notch since that non-qualification incident in 2010 and so naturally, the Swedes will produce someone popular once more. Fingers crossed Danny Saucedo finally gets his chance! What is going to happen with Azerbaijan? Dilara is probably fuming, and the country probably doesn't like her, or Malta for that matter (no douze points from their "famous" neighbours?). Will Azerbaijan come back stronger and louder? Yes. I predict something resonant of 2009. Other powerhouses Russia and Ukraine can sit comfortably, and we'll probably get something out of them neither terrible nor amazing next year. Greece will give us more whacky selections too, looking at 20th as a blip rather than a trend.
Recent favourites Italy also scored their worst ever performance at a Eurovision. After only coming back in 2011, is this going to be instrumental? Viewing figures still haven't set the world alight, and they are not going to do anything for interest next year. I expect they'll return without caring about this result, and they'll be back to that top 10 next year.
I move on to the rest of the former Soviet bloc now. Belarus look like they are on the up with 2013 and 2014 results. Alexander Rybak has shown interest in selecting Belarus' participant in 2015 and so could we be heading to Minsk? Proven winner... (although that has meant nothing recently, Niamh Kivanagh, Charlotte Perelli, Dana International etc...). Then we have the Baltic states. Well Latvia haven't upped their games, so I think we can expect another non-qualifier from them. Lithuania won't send anything popular and so people will question whether they will qualify...and then they bloody will...and as for Estonia, well, we will probably get a dull ballad next year. Not that Ott and Brigit were dull, but c'mon, more ballads? Oh and I almost forgot Moldova. I am optimistic that Pasha will make a triumphant return. CHISINAU 2015 BITCHES.
Let's move on to the former Yugoslav bloc. Anyone predicting returns from Serbia, Bosnia & H, Croatia, and so on? Well Montenegro will definitely be back with a boring ballad, hoping that is the recipe for success now. I hope the others return, but it really is up in the air. The last time Serbia took a break was after the dissolution of Serbia and Montenegro...they returned with Molitva. If Serbia do return, I reckon there will be Zelijko intervention of some sort. Could we be going back to Belgrade?
I'll stay near the area and mention the other Southern states. Israel? Well I'd give a year off if I were them, but we'll see. Probably won't qualify though. Albania? More of the same no doubt. Bulgaria? Unless you've got Elista & Stoyan, give it another year. Romania? Could be interesting, Paula & Ovi were supposed to do better. Georgia? More bizzare internal selections. Armenia? Back to basics I reckon. More Sirusho, less Lonely Planets and MP3s hopefully. And then there is TURKEY. Well we all know why they quit in the first place, and things will have to change for them to return. I'm doubtful a bearded lady from Austria will inspire their comeback.
Well I'm moving quite quickly through...there's the middle of Europe to think about. Hungary seemed to have enjoy success the last two years, they'll probably stick to the same and produce qualifiers. Poland might just be that country with the Eurovision gems for the next few years. Moldova and Montenegro have treated us with some rare and unusual songs recently, maybe Poland will continue to bring the butter churners? Czech Republic and Slovakia may look at recent results and consider coming back. If Austria can lift the crown, then they can definitely qualify with the right approach. A bearded lady from a neighbouring country may just set alight enough interest. Oh and let's hope Liechtenstein finally get the funding to make their debut. They could be the new San Marino...keep trying and you'll make it. Valentina once said that this will be her last Eurovision whether she qualifies or not. I think San Marino might be represented by someone else next year. And I have a feeling they are going to be really good. Instinctual, don't ask why. Oooh I suppose Switzerland count as the middle. Well, I expect no change from them, it'll be middle of the road, and will either qualify or won't.
Moving on to the west now...and well, not considering the big 5, what on earth is happening? The Netherlands look on course to become the new Eurovision powerhouse with fantastic entries in the last 2 years...Belgium may be taking a leaf out of their book. Malta have been enjoying much success over the last couple, they'll give us something similar to Kurt and Gianluca next year. Unless Chiara comes back again, which no fan should ever rule out. Portugal might take another year out, it's hard to say. In my opinion, they should look to Brazil and should have played off the World Cup this year. That's easy to say with hindsight, but Brazil speak Portugese and are not short of a few stars. Introduce Michel Telo to Europe. Ai Se Eu Te Pego (think I've spelled that correctly) or something similar would storm Eurovision!! Ireland are probably well pissed they didn't qualify and will send a ballad about peace or love (similar to what we heard in the 90s) next year...unless Jedward come back. They promised to give Eurovision another go if they penned their own song. Well if someone teaches them to sit still and write we could be in for something magically brilliant...or magically hilarious.
Little mention to the Nordic countries...continue doing what you're doing. 2 of the 5 Scandinavians will finish in the top 10 at least, I'm once more going to hope Iceland win.

And finally we have the big 5 countries. Spain will send another female ballad if they realise what's good for them...Germany will send up and coming talent, which will probably be quite good...already mentioned Italy...goodness knows how Austria are going to come up with an act to follow Conchita. Unless Conchita performs again, which I doubt very much...France really don't care and will send another fun act...and though the citizens of the UK bemoan once more that "everybody hates us", I beg, beg, beg the BBC to repeat the same procedure. Pick up and coming talent, get them to write the song, give them a shot on the biggest stage in Europe. They'll get fans whoever they are, and with a bit of luck, we might finally do it. Do not send a has-been, do not let the public choose, do not invite Jedward to perform for us, just use BBC Introducing. Or plead to Simon Cowell to use one of his artists. If One Direction enter, we have this. I have just written paragraphs upon paragraphs about the UK selection process, but I deleted it. I wanna keep this short and sweet: the UK is one of the best music exporting countries in the world, with some of the biggest names in music British. There are extremely talented performers up and down the country trying to squeeze into this industry. Most are going to bed at night praying for that opportunity. Those who have decided that music is their passion and that's what they want to do will snap up the chance to get some attention to their talents. Molly Smitten-Downes received exposure to her music and has a steady growing fan base...and she has a record contract now too. Her finishing 17th hasn't lost fans to her music. Give unsigned artists a chance, a platform and ignore the pessimists. The BBC once again dominated Saturday Night Ratings with one of the cheapest shows filling the hot 20:00 to 23:30 slots. They are not withdrawing any time soon.

Well rant over, what about anyone I've forgotten? Shout out for Cyprus to make a return! Will we see any new participants? I think our best hope is Liechtenstein. The Vatican could always send some dancing nuns (guaranteed top 3) but it's more likely I discover a sexual attraction to cows over the next year than the Vatican City even debating entering the contest. Kazakhstan should enter...and Australia should be given a 60th celebration entry, and that chapter is definitely not closed. With no diaspora voting, it would be so interesting to see how the Ozzies vote. As a UK citizen, I'm praying that our English speaking friends give us a nod for at least a couple of points!

Predictions for next year's winner: Sweden, Azerbaijan, Belarus or Serbia (if they come back).
It could be another similar year, wide open and hotly contested, and we could end up with an unprecedented winner. If that's the case, let's hope Iceland or Portugal do it.

Prediction for the big 5: well, they will be automatic qualifiers, I don't see that changing for at least a few more years yet. The UK will finish on the right hand side, as will France and Spain. Germany will finish on the left hand side, and Italy will finish in the top 10.

Prediction Surprises: San Marino will have a good track, and Israel will qualify with a hot male singing a ballad. Lithuania will enter more tripe and qualify, and to their disgust, fan favourite Estonia will miss out again. Ireland will turn fortunes around, as will Moldova, but one of the Nordics will suffer from an early semi final draw and not qualify.

Prediction about the rules: More weighting will be applied to televoting. The countries which finish top 3 in the televote will be guaranteed points even if they are hated by the juries (circa Poland '14).

Prediction for withdrawals: FYR Macedonia might give it a break, Georgia could give it a year, and Albania might call it a day.

Predictions about controversy: Azerbaijan and Armenia will give us more problems. Russia will send something political but still be allowed to enter it, as the Ukraine have done on countless occasions.

Other Predictions: Geri Halliwell will not compete for the UK. Although don't rule out Katrina teaming up with Mike Nolan for a super entry, criticised by Sandie Shaw, and finishing last. Unless Kimberly Rew decides to write it. France will beg Anne-Marie David to give it another crack, but settle for someone similar to Sebastian Tellier. Ireland will send a drag queen, and there'll be jokes amongst fans that it is actually Linda Martin. Johnny Logan will be considered.

So the predictions got a bit silly...but you never know...

Who will use as a toilet break tonight?

In one of my favourite posts of the Eurovision season, I will draw everyone's attention back to the running order - you need to decide your toilet break song!

Okay, so there is a interval or two, and you don't really need to watch all 37 countries release their votes...but after a few too many beers are you really gonna be able to hold it in for more than a couple of songs? And what happens when you need to refresh your drink? Too many possibilities not to plan your evening.

This year the producers have made it extremely hard to select an ideal toilet break/refreshment top up whatever you want to call it. So what you have pause on your tv? That doesn't count.
I was really tempted by breaking during Azerbaijan in 3rd slot...but Azerbaijan are one of my favourite nations in the contest, I'm a big fan of Dilara and 'Start a fire' and plus, they're only 3rd. Therefore I say hold tight till Germany in 12th. Sorry fans of Elaiza, but really, it isn't right! The bland performance from the Germans runs into a commercial break for the rest of Europe so this is a chance for a mega break - go to toilet, grab another 3 cans, refill the peanuts, straighten up your country's flag and get back to your hot seat. A blip in the show will provide lots of space for talking; especially when Russia take to the stage. I will put money on it that my housemates will discuss Russian politics when the twins take stage. After letting them continue through Italy and Slovenia (excellent chances to break if you've forgotten anything), shit will start to get better around Finland in 18 (no pun intended there!). And if you're really desperate, I'm sure many won't mind you skipping Switzerland in 20 or Valentina's final performance for San Marino in slot 25. Then UK fans better be ready for Molly to take the roof off!

The EBU have released the running order for the votes following last night's jury rehearsal...there's whisper on the web that this indicates a western country has won the jury vote...are we heading Austria, Netherlands, UK, Sweden? Even Hungary could have won it to be fair. Let's not speculate about the voting order, because the jury and televoters will not necessarily vote in unison.

5 hours to go now, this shit is getting exciting!

Who will the UK give their 'douze' points to in SF2?

Okay so I am procrastinating again... Well Done Eurovision!

This blog post takes a different look...who will the United Kingdom give their points to in tomorrow night's semi final? This seems a slightly odd blog post, but keep reading folks and you'll see why...

So in tomorrow's semi final, we have:
Malta, Israel, Norway, Georgia, Poland, Austria, Lithuania, Finland, Ireland, Belarus, FYR Macedonia, Switzerland, Greece, Slovenia, and Romania.

NOW the UK's closest neighbour is Ireland, but will the UK give Ireland 12 points tomorrow night? I'd say that this year it really won't be as simple as that.
Other countries that the UK will give points to is: Malta, Lithuania, and Greece. I could guarantee you that the UK will also give something to Romania and probably Poland as well. Now I've already listed 7 countries with a high chance of getting points from the UK. In the past few years, the UK has also given points to those countries with a comical element for Brits: for example, Romania 2013, Moldova 2011 and so on. In this semi final, I'm convinced the UK will respond to Austria and Conchita Wurst - some finding it hilarious that there is a bearded lady representing us, some voting for who Conchita represents, and finally some because of the actual song (and let us not forget that she is singing a James Bond-esque ballad, a British icon). So that takes us to 8. Belarus also stand a good chance of a few comical votes, and Euro fanatics voting in the semi final will try to push Israel through. But then I look back to the list of competing countries and can see the UK also giving points to Norway, Finland and Switzerland. We tend to give points to the Swiss, so them too? And lest we forget the UK jury who could throw it all.

So have I sold the argument to you? Do you agree that the UK's votes are very hard to predict in this year's semi finals? Below is a prediction of where I see the United Kingdom's votes going this year:

UK votes for SF2?
12 - Ireland
10 - Lithuania
8 - Romania
7 - Malta
6 - Greece
5 - Austria
4 - Israel
3 - Poland
2 - Norway
1 - Switzerland

Who is going to win Eurovision 2014?

Well let's be honest, this is what it is all about. So many fans spend so many months trying to predict the winner of the contest. We have our favourites, we have our least favourites, and then we have the songs which we know will do well regardless of our own personal tastes. This year I've struggled yet again with the popularity of the Italian entrant, Emma Marrone grunting out 'La Mia Citta' isn't to my personal taste. Another country which has been favourited by fans is Israel and Mei Finegold's 'Same Heart', and once again, I struggle to enjoy the Israeli entrant just as much as my fellow fans. However, one of my personal favourites has been Malta with 'Coming Home' - whereas people have criticised the female vocalist in Firelight, I found her addition to the song quite nice. And then there's France and Denmark and so on. But for once I am loving the United Kingdom popularity! We have just been declared outright winner of the ESC Nation poll, and I'm yet to see us fair badly in any poll or anyone's personal choices. Whether people like it, I haven't seen anyone deny that this will do top 10. PLEASE EUROPE I BEG YOU! The Hump didn't deserve it, Blue sounded awful live, god knows what Pete Waterman wrote for Josh Dubovie, and Bonnie could've bored the pants off someone on an acid trip last year...but this year, we have a great song, a great vocalist, and undoubtedly our best entrant since Katrina and the Waves. Good Luck Molly! I'm hoping you bring it home!


Below is my personal poll of 2014. I've conducted a survey of various online fan polls, fan predictors, I've included an odds scoring system, as well as marks for staging and vocals, and then there's the bonus marks for countries like Azerbaijan who could enter cats drowning and still finish top 10 (no criticism there, I've actually liked all Azeri entries apart from 2008, and the top 5 placings are thoroughly deserved, but let's be honest, what I just said is kinda true). There is NO bias what-so-ever, my own personal favourites weren't given more marks for staging for example, I was brutal with most contestants, but like most other surveys, don't take too much to heart.


First up, here's my prediction of the 10 qualifiers from each semi final:
Semi Final 1
Armenia
Estonia
Sweden
Russia
Azerbaijan
Ukraine
Moldova
Montenegro
Hungary
San Marino/Netherlands (I went with the Netherlands)

Semi Final 2
Malta
Israel
Norway
Poland
Austria
Lithuania
Finland
Ireland
Greece
Romania



THE FINAL:

#1 UNITED KINGDOM - 97.05
#2 Sweden - 95.3
#3 Hungary - 93.4
#4 Armenia - 90.15
#5 Greece - 83.85
#6 Austria - 81.15
#7 Norway - 79.65
#8 Denmark - 78.3
#9 Azerbaijan - 75.96
#10 Ukraine - 73.51
#11 Spain - 72.7
#12 Romania - 70.64
#13 Italy - 70.56
#14 Israel - 69.35
#15 Netherlands - 68.75
#16 Montenegro - 64.9
#17 Ireland - 63.3
#18 France - 62.1
#19 Germany - 59.45
#20 Finland - 59.09
#21 Malta - 57.6
#22 Estonia - 55.3
#23 Poland - 54.8
#24 Russia - 45.5
#25 Moldova - 36.94
#26 Lithuania - 28.65


Now taking a step back from that - if Lithuania do qualify as I think they will, will they finish bottom? I doubt it. Knowing Lithuania they'll probably end up finishing top half of the board.  And there is going to be a shock, there always is. Nobody saw Malta finishing as high as they did last year, or Germany finishing as low as they did. So whose up for predicting the big shocks? I think saying Lithuania will qualify qualifies as predicting a "shock", but next to that I'm staking it out on Georgia. I don't think San Marino will qualify, but good luck Valentina Monetta! From laughing stock to serious contender to heartbroken fans, MAYBE this is your year Valentina!

Good Luck to all those competing at Eurovision 2014! May the singing commence.

Part II - Sweden

The Good Part II: Sweden

Welcome to the second edition of the Good, the Bad and the Ugly. Today's post is another "good" and this time it's Sweden!

'Undo' by Sanna Nielsen

Sweden have one of the best records in the Eurovision Song Contest, and rightfully so. Last year I blogged a history of Swedish winners in the contest following Loreen's euphoric triumph in 2012. If you missed that, you can read it here. Sweden have won at pivotal points of the Eurovision Song Contest, could they be on for win number 6? Polls and odds indicate that Sweden 2015 is very possible - and with 2015 being the 60th edition of the contest, the winner of this year's contest is 'pivotal'. It seems to all point in Sweden's favour.

So what of the song? Well 'Undo' is a classy ballad. A beautiful melody starts the song before Sanna's soft lyrics ease into the song. The first verse builds to a gentle first chorus, juxtaposing the tragedy for which Sanna sings about. By the time the beat kicks in on the second verse, Sanna's voice begins to strengthen and leads to a big second chorus. All the while, the song is just beautiful: the composition, lyrics, everything, just works. Sanna Nielsen adds that necessary elegance, and you feel the emotion channelled through her voice. As well as that, if her Eurovision performance is anything like her Melodifestivalen performance then the choreography will be perfect; no cheap gimmicks, just the right lighting - a cold, yet soulful blue. It's a recipe for success.

But there's just one thing hanging over me - in my opinion, something is missing. I think this song is very, very good, I've almost played it too much over the last 2 months, and I just think there's not a "winning factor" about it. I could easily see this song finishing in the top 10, potentially top 3, but not winning. I speak brutally honest, and I appreciate the fact that many will disagree with me. Over on ESC Stats, Sweden dominate the current poll, and they come a very close second on ESC Nation - I don't deny its a good song, I just can't see this winning. I have this horrible feeling that if this was to win, people would vote for it in polls such as "worst winner", for which it just doesn't deserve (in my opinion that crown could rightfully go to many countries: Latvia's win in 2002 still baffles me for example).

Additionally, it's another ballad, for which we are not short of this year. Being female does help, since 2004, 6 of the last 10 winners have been solo females, and in fact there have been more solo female winners than males or groups who have won the contest since Lys Assia's win for Switzerland at the first contest in 1956. But because of the ballad pile up this year, although not admittedly on the same scale as the fiasco that was 2012, we can pretty much guess that the draw for the final will play a strategic role in who wins the contest. For example, another popular female ballad is the UK's 'Children of the Universe' by Molly, which probably won't finish higher than Sweden if the Swedes perform last and the UK performs first. Therefore, it's all to play for. Sanna has been dealt position 4 in the hot first semi-final. Not ideal, but recent patterns suggest that performing 4th makes you at no great a disadvantage than performing last.

Could Sanna Nielsen do it? Could we be going back to Sweden once more? Let's be honest, it would be nice to go somewhere hot for Eurovision once again, but we all miss Petra Mede's hosting so it wouldn't be so bad. And plus, Sweden is a fantastic country.

Good Luck Sanna! Good Luck Sweden!




I leave you with this gem from the Greek entrant Freaky Fortune & RiskyKidd - it's a medley of the last few winners, although the seem to missed out 'Molitva'. Perhaps singing in Serbian was a bit too much for them, but nevermind, this still is pretty good. Could 'Undo' be mixed into another medley next year?

"Back in the USSR"

So with the long anticipated release of Austria's song, 'Rise Like A Phoenix' by Conchita Wust, it means we are still waiting for Russia. The Tomalchevy Twins will sing 'Shine', but they are still yet to premiere the song, despite a promise by eurovision.tv that it would be up yesterday. Russia will be of much interest at this year's Eurovision following their current performance on the global stage. And so I ask...who is going to give Russia points at the contest in May?

First off, let's mention their new anti-gay legislation. Everyone reading this will know all about Russia's interesting ("backwards") law against informing under-18's about homosexuality. If you don't, then it's brilliant explained by Grekov (2013) here.  This is going to have very interesting implications for Eurovision - a competition striving to break free of politics and political stigma. For a start, Eurovision has an extremely large LGBT fanbase, all of whom are not the best fans of Putin at the moment. Countries like the UK will not vote in favour of Russia this year. Despite the best efforts of EBU, politics will play a role in voting patterns like this. The UK gave 10 points to Russia last year, and they were a well deserved 10 points, 'What If' is a beautiful song, but I can't see many picking up the phone to vote for Russia even if they do have a stormer. It's sad really.

And then there's Crimea. The current war has reintroduced many of the old east vs west tensions which we all thought were slowly coming to an end in this ever-increasing globalized world. Again, if you're under-read on the topic, the BBC does explain it pretty well here. Ukraine's voting will be of much interest here - with the nation divided in political turmoil, I hardly see the voting system going un-rigged. Once more, it's really quite sad. But nonetheless, very interesting. Will Ukraine give points to Russia? As I've already established, the facts are that politics will once again play an unhealthy role in deciding the outcome of the result. And then there are the juries - what pressure the juries will be under from Ukraine!? Without doubt they will be heavily burdened by Ukrainian officials, and they will almost very likely be bribed by both Russia and their own political leaders. It seems very apparent that Russia will be marked 1st from the Ukrainian jury - whether or not this results in douze points is a different matter. This flows in nicely to my next point: the juries and the rest of the USSR.

Russia has fortunately many borders - this means that they share much of their culture with a great number of countries. This is especially the case since the fact that many of Russia's closest friends in the contest are former Soviet states. I'm not saying that diaspora voting has been free of politics, especially in the 00s, but the 10s are a new decade, where the right songs have generally done the best. Culturally, Russia has done well from Armenia, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and so forth - all former Soviet states (statistics thanks to ESC Stats - don't forget to vote in their poll!). Where these countries vote in the contest will be of much interest; will countries vote in favour of Russia for fear, in Ukraine for support, or boycott voting for them in protest against Crimean invasion? Additionally, Azerbaijan didn't give Russia any points last year, sparking discussion amongst fans and Azeri officials as to why. The officials were not too impressed by their jury, and this could potentially lead to an unfair swing in favour of Russia at this year's contest by the Azeri jury among others. And we all know how corrupt Azerbaijan's voting has been criticised of in the past, most notably in last year's contest with allegations of paying students to vote for them. The former states of the Soviet Union have a decision to make, and although I initially thought that Russia would do top 3 however poor the song, I am reminded by the consequences of the Iraq invasion by the United Kingdom at the 2003 contest. It was not only the first time the UK finished last, but also the first time we received the old 'nul' points. Quite remarkable considering how a mere 6 years earlier we dominated the contest. Russia's invasion of Crimea will not go down well with the olden Eurovision countries in the west, but the reaction of the former USSR states will speak volumes about how many states view the Russian situation.

It's a sad year for the Eurovision Song Contest - politics will once again become a central issue for the voting and the EBU will undoubtedly be left with quite a headache after the competition has ended. With no country currently hot favourites to win, the contest is wide open; the bookmakers have gone with Armenia, I've seen polls ranking favourites from Hungary to Romania, the UK to Norway, and history tells us that in a year as wide open as this, the draw will become pivotal in deciding the winner. I still stand by the fact that if Azerbaijan and Sweden swapped places in the 2011 draw then Eric Saade would have walked away with the prize instead. If Russia get a favourable draw many will argue corruption and bribery - if Russia get a poor draw many will argue there's political motivation behind their placing. If Russia were to win - well let's cross that bridge in the small chance it'll happen.

But let's not forget that it is the Eurovision SONG contest!

Russia's representatives are the Tomalchevy twins. They are proven performers having won the 2006 Junior Eurovision Song Contest (you can view the video here). Since winning the contest they have gone on to make a name for themselves in the Eastern region of Europe - and people do vote for big names they recognise (forget has been Engelbert Humperdinck, I'm talking about the likes of Kaliopi - FYR Macedonia; Zelijko Joksimovic - Serbia; Patricia Kaas - France) and so when people do vote, they will remember the twins. The chances are that the song will be good as well. Russia have given us some great Eurovision tracks in the last decade and I see this year as no different despite what is happening on the political stage. However, the fact that there is so much speculation about how well Russia do, and who gives them points, indicates the precarious position of the contest this year. Perhaps I am overstating the problem, feel free to share your opinions and comments! Much discussion is very welcome.


Note: the success of the Winter Olympics in Sochi will still be in the minds of televoters and jurors alike - this is likely to play a part but I think the LGBT laws and Crimean invasion are of more pressing points.

Who's your toilet break?

So in the modern era we tend to just pause the TV...

BUT that's boring. There is always one country we "accidentally" miss by going to "toilet".

This year, looking at the draw, I'm probably gonna find something much more interesting to do for the 3 minutes that Armenia are on. Not that its the worst song, just it fits in nicely - around about halfway, situated between two mega houses (Germany and Netherlands) and it'll probably be quite boring!

That being said, the voting is a long procedure...I'll probably need someone else towards the end to "accidentally" miss, and so guess what? I've chosen my absolute favourite Norway. I mean I've been going on for so long about how much I love that song!

That was British humour by the way. I detest the song from Norway and so will definitely use this as my second "toilet" break.

Hope we have our plans sorted for tonight! The only flag I own is an American flag so that'll have to be waved in replace of a British flag - we did own America at one point so there is a slight connection? Hahaha. Trust a British person to remind everyone of how great we used to be. ANYWAY...

Less than 3 hours to go!!