Monday, 5 May 2014

Who is going to win Eurovision 2014?

Well let's be honest, this is what it is all about. So many fans spend so many months trying to predict the winner of the contest. We have our favourites, we have our least favourites, and then we have the songs which we know will do well regardless of our own personal tastes. This year I've struggled yet again with the popularity of the Italian entrant, Emma Marrone grunting out 'La Mia Citta' isn't to my personal taste. Another country which has been favourited by fans is Israel and Mei Finegold's 'Same Heart', and once again, I struggle to enjoy the Israeli entrant just as much as my fellow fans. However, one of my personal favourites has been Malta with 'Coming Home' - whereas people have criticised the female vocalist in Firelight, I found her addition to the song quite nice. And then there's France and Denmark and so on. But for once I am loving the United Kingdom popularity! We have just been declared outright winner of the ESC Nation poll, and I'm yet to see us fair badly in any poll or anyone's personal choices. Whether people like it, I haven't seen anyone deny that this will do top 10. PLEASE EUROPE I BEG YOU! The Hump didn't deserve it, Blue sounded awful live, god knows what Pete Waterman wrote for Josh Dubovie, and Bonnie could've bored the pants off someone on an acid trip last year...but this year, we have a great song, a great vocalist, and undoubtedly our best entrant since Katrina and the Waves. Good Luck Molly! I'm hoping you bring it home!

Below is my personal poll of 2014. I've conducted a survey of various online fan polls, fan predictors, I've included an odds scoring system, as well as marks for staging and vocals, and then there's the bonus marks for countries like Azerbaijan who could enter cats drowning and still finish top 10 (no criticism there, I've actually liked all Azeri entries apart from 2008, and the top 5 placings are thoroughly deserved, but let's be honest, what I just said is kinda true). There is NO bias what-so-ever, my own personal favourites weren't given more marks for staging for example, I was brutal with most contestants, but like most other surveys, don't take too much to heart.

First up, here's my prediction of the 10 qualifiers from each semi final:
Semi Final 1
San Marino/Netherlands (I went with the Netherlands)

Semi Final 2


#2 Sweden - 95.3
#3 Hungary - 93.4
#4 Armenia - 90.15
#5 Greece - 83.85
#6 Austria - 81.15
#7 Norway - 79.65
#8 Denmark - 78.3
#9 Azerbaijan - 75.96
#10 Ukraine - 73.51
#11 Spain - 72.7
#12 Romania - 70.64
#13 Italy - 70.56
#14 Israel - 69.35
#15 Netherlands - 68.75
#16 Montenegro - 64.9
#17 Ireland - 63.3
#18 France - 62.1
#19 Germany - 59.45
#20 Finland - 59.09
#21 Malta - 57.6
#22 Estonia - 55.3
#23 Poland - 54.8
#24 Russia - 45.5
#25 Moldova - 36.94
#26 Lithuania - 28.65

Now taking a step back from that - if Lithuania do qualify as I think they will, will they finish bottom? I doubt it. Knowing Lithuania they'll probably end up finishing top half of the board.  And there is going to be a shock, there always is. Nobody saw Malta finishing as high as they did last year, or Germany finishing as low as they did. So whose up for predicting the big shocks? I think saying Lithuania will qualify qualifies as predicting a "shock", but next to that I'm staking it out on Georgia. I don't think San Marino will qualify, but good luck Valentina Monetta! From laughing stock to serious contender to heartbroken fans, MAYBE this is your year Valentina!

Good Luck to all those competing at Eurovision 2014! May the singing commence.

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