Monday, 9 May 2016

My Annual Mega Scoring Predictor


What is this mega scoring predictor?
Woo! Today I am releasing my annual mega scoring predictor. This is taking into account a whole host of polls, juries, predictions, staging, odds and a cheeky bonus given or removed here and there. If you can think of an online poll, it's been included in this score sheet. 

All scores are weighted, for example, the odds are given more points than say the ESC Nation Tummiweb poll site. All scores are also averaged using my advanced statistical skills - see My Degree (British humour, very sorry). The highest score a country could receive is 85 (the lowest was of course 0).

This by no means reflects my opinion, but merely the opinion of the wider Eurovision fan community. I love you all.

Previous success or a complete waste of my time?
In 2012, I successfully predicted a win for Sweden; 2013 saw these methods prove successful for predicting Denmark to win; but unfortunately they saw the UK as the winner for 2014 with Austria only 6th (clearly I overrated the UK staging and didn't add enough bonus marks for the "Conchita effect"). I did not use these methods last year because I was cramming for finals. In fact, I was pretty much not around at all last year.

Top 10 & Qualifiers:

2012 - 
I predicted the correct winner with 6/10 correct for the top 10 (having Russia 13th, Turkey 15th, Estonia 20th, and Albania 30th - but who had Suus higher than 30, come on!). 
I got 7/10 right for the first semi-final, and 8/10 correct for semi-final 2.

2013 - As well as predicting Denmark for the win, I had 7/10 correct for the top 10 (missing out Greece 11th, Hungary 18th, and Malta 27th).
In predicting the semi-finals, I got 8/10 in the first, and 7/10 in the second.

2014 - 
Unfortunately the UK didn't win and I had Austria 6th, but I did successfully predict 7/10 correct for the top 10 (leaving Spain 11th, Netherlands 15th, and Russia 25th).
For qualifiers, I successfully got 8/10 right for both semi-finals.

What to expect this year?
This year I have used more online polls and predictions than I previously have done, perhaps this will be problematic? Each year my poll has evolved though, and I hope to have the same success. 

Anyway when I finally reviewed the results I was surprised! Semi final 1 only proved to be slightly better than Semi Final 2, and based on previous results, we will see one or two of my predicted qualifiers fall short and 2 to be a surprise. This is especially more interesting considering how tight semi-final 1 is.

I think I will predict the winner successfully this year (big claim!) but will do worse than previous years in predicting a top 10.

The Unofficial Eurovision Song Contest 2016 Predictor Scoreboard

Semi-Final 1: Armenia, Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Hungary, Iceland, Malta, Netherlands, Russia
Semi-Final 2: Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Serbia, Ukraine

1st (1) - Russia (81.17)
2nd (2) - Ukraine (71.39)
3rd (3) - France (68.56)
4th (4) - Australia (68.34)
5th (5) - Bulgaria (62.83)
6th (6) - Italy (60.57)
7th (7) - Sweden (57.67)
8th (8) - Armenia (55.94)
9th (9) - Malta (53.69)
10th (10) - Iceland (53.31)
11th (11) - Latvia (51.40)
12th (12) - Spain (50.01)
13th (13) - Croatia (49.69)
14th (14) - Serbia (49.34)
15th (15) - Czech Republic (47.16)
16th (16) - Hungary (44.00)
17th (17) - Austria (41.69)
18th (18) - Israel (41.37)
19th (19) - Netherlands (40.31)
20th (20) - Cyprus (40.17)
x (21) - Azerbaijan (39.56)
21st (22) - Belgium (37.40)
22nd (23) - Norway (35.40)
23rd (24) - United Kingdom (35.24)
24th (25) - Germany (34.77)
x (26) - Estonia (33.63)
25th (27) - Poland (33.03)
26th (28) - Lithuania (30.37)
x (29) - Bosnia & Herzegovina (29.16)
x (30) - Belarus (27.63)
x (31) - Macedonia (25.53)
x (32) - Greece (23.27)
x (33) - Ireland (23.20)
x (34) - Georgia (22.11)
x (35) - Denmark (21.60)
x (36) - Finland (15.14)
x (37) - Montenegro (15.14)
x (38) - San Marino (13.69)
x (39) - Switzerland (12.29)
x (40) - Moldova (11.69)
x (41) - Albania (11.66)
x (42) - Slovenia (10.37)

So Russia will win, by a bit of a landslide if my points are to be correct!? Rivals France would score 3rd, leaving Ukraine 2nd, which coincidentally mirrors the current top 3 in the odds. And realistically, I think we could all see that happening. 

Surprises? Well I think it's semi-final one where I will make the biggest mistakes. I think it's brave to predict that Greece, Bosnia & Herzegovina, and Azerbaijan will all lose their 100% qualification record, even if the semi is tight. In all honesty, I think I'd be surprised if Austria do qualify (I have them 8th), even though I love the song.

In all honesty, how do you think I have done? Let me know in the comments below, or on Twitter. And no hating, this is a prediction of the final result, valued as fairly as possible.

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