Saturday, 18 May 2013

AAAAH! There are too many contenders...

I've been trying to predict the winner all day! Talking about it with people and hearing their thoughts, putting the songs in order of the final. It is soo difficult this year!

In 2011, the winner was so hard to predict, and in the hours leading up to the final, the odds were changing left right and centre. I think an hour before the final, Azerbaijan shot straight into a comfortable pole position in the odds...

Keep an eye out... http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner

Just heard them in order and Georgia really stood out. Was I wrong about placing them so far low earlier? It is becoming very hard. Denmark probably still have it in the bag though... how boring!

The Big Day has arrived!

No, no, it's not Krista Siegfrid's Wedding! It's the final of the Eurovision Song Contest!

Can you believe we're over for yet another year? After tonight, that's it for another year! It all goes by way too quickly. I shall do my review of the season post-contest but right now it's time to excited for it all to happen!

And excited we are! Who is going to win? Well let's be completely honest, we're all still expecting Denmark to win - even though they are boring the socks off everyone now. Not expecting a runaway though. It would be great to replicate the drama of 1988 or 1993, or 2003, but with so many countries voting that would now be almost impossible! Runaways can be fun though - 2009 and 2012 weren't boring. Last year got all exciting towards the end - "will Loreen steal the record for most points?" was on everyone's lips. But we had that last year. Let's not have that this year please! Don't want to sit through a runaway again. But I do have a sneaky feeling it could just be like 2011 again. Noone really knew who was going to win that. And there have been doubts over whether Denmark'll do it!

So that's enough about first place! Let's select the wooden spoon position. This could end up being much more fun if Denmark do runaway. But for a UK viewer, feeling slightly desperate towards the end because you want just about any country to give you points so you don't finish last, is a completely natural feeling. Cheers to Norway by the way - without Tooji and Stay, I'm pretty sure we would have finished bottom of the heap. SO who will finish last this year? Well I hope I can rule the UK out of that! My contenders for last are Spain, Lithuania, and Hungary. I like the Spanish entry, but I feel it's fairly average and will get lost after the excitement of Finland and the kiss. Lithuania are in second position and we were all shocked they made the final. That doesn't add up well. And then finally there is Hungary. I think they will just get completely lost and forgotten. They sit in between Sweden and Denmark, and then Denmark is followed by an array of strong contenders. I just feel they won't stand out amongst all that and will be forgotten when the votes are counted. However, my prediction for last place is Spain (sorry!).

So what about the rest? Well this is my prediction for this evening:
(no points system, just what I think will end up)

#1 Denmark
#2 Azerbaijan
#3 Greece
#4 Moldova
#5 Norway
#6 Ukraine
#7 Iceland
#8 Germany
#9 Russia
#10 Sweden
#11 Estonia
#12 Finland
#13 Italy
#14 Ireland
#15 Georgia
#16 Malta
#17 Netherlands
#18 France
#19 Armenia
#20 Romania
#21 Belarus
#22 Lithuania
#23 United Kingdom
#24 Belgium
#25 Hungary
#26 Spain

Some slight explanation is needed. I don't think the United Kingdom will finish 23rd, I think we'll do better. But as I explained to a friend the other day, if you set your sights low with the UK in Eurovision, you can never be unhappy. I don't expect the song to set the world on fire, but I expect Bonnie to. Maybe the other way round. See I don't know. The UK could finish anywhere between 6th and 25th (they won't finish last!).

Put Russia 9th. That's interesting seeing as I have always seen the Russian entry as top 3 at least. There's gonna be one entry we weren't expecting to top 10, and even though I rate Iceland, everyone else isn't. I squeezed Estonia into 11th. They were originally 10th, but then Sweden will do a top 10 I reckon. I think Italy will be disappointed, and I believe the Netherlands won't do that greatly - but hey, most Dutch are just ecstatic to reach the final!

And finally Moldova will do an Albania. They will, they will, they will. The song is absolutely stunning, the dress is absolutely stunning, Aliona is absolutely stunning herself, and Pasha is on the piano. Moldovan Perfection.

Thursday, 16 May 2013

POST SEMI FINAL 2 EXCITEMENT

So revision has taken a complete backfoot this evening...but for good reasons.

Wasn't the second semi final fantastic? I thought it was so much better than the first! Sorry for being so overly critical of Petra Mede. She seemed to relax a lot more this evening and I thought she was pretty hilarious. Not as hilarious as Scott Mills getting caught in a lift though!!

What do we make of our qualifiers first of all? Were you shocked? People on twitter and facebook seem to be shocked about Armenia and Hungary making it through...really!? It's Armenia and Hungary for goodness sakes. I'll admit, I thought Hungary's performance got completely lost and it didn't stand out, but the song is really really nice and if Malta can do it, why can't the Hungarians? Admittedly Armenia don't have the same in the sense that the song isn't really as good, but come on, you can never be shocked to see Armenia in the finals of the modern era.

Latvia are the only country from the ex-Soviets not to make it through...I'll bet they're feeling pretty embarrassed right now. Lovely entry though, great enthusiasm and energy, and they sold it for me. Better opener than the song we all seemed to have forgotten about (cough Austria cough) but that's probably why they weren't able to qualify...opening spot and all.

Performance of the night? For me it was undoubtedly Iceland! Eg A Lif is a song I never really got. It wasn't bad but I never rated it. Iceland have a strong qualifying record so I saw this in the final, but never really appreciated it until tonight. It was the first real hair raising moment for me and Eythor Igni (is that right? Icelandics help me!) was just fantastic. Absolutely fantastic.
Is anyone thinking back to 2007 and Molitva? I really feel this has the same energy. Molitva is in a league of its own - without a shadow of a doubt one of the greatest songs in the entire history of the contest - but Eg A Lif does remind me of it in a funny way. A beautiful hair raising key change, an absolutely phenomenal vocal, a chorus to sing to yourself later (even if you don't understand what is being sung!) and a performance that doesn't have anything silly going on. I look back at Molitva and don't understand the walking that goes on halfway through, but the whole staging is all about the vocal, and that can definitely be said for Eg A Lif. I'm really impressed by it and really want it to do well. You never know, it could now do a Molitva and be the first win for Iceland like Molitva was for Serbia (and Serbia & Montenegro).

Other brilliant performances for me where Azerbaijan, Greece, and FYR Macedonia (absolutely gutted for Esma & Lozano!)

Disappointing performances? Well apart from Hungary getting lost, the fact I hate the Norwegian entry, I have to say the most disappointing performance for me was Switzerland. It just seemed really boring and dull. It wasn't that I was excited for Romania (believe me I wasn't), it was just something of nothing in the end. It's a real shame cos they did have so many selling points. For example, the oldest man in the contest. Why did they stand in a line? Where was the fun? Nothing ever really happened. 

So can we speculate now?

NO!

The draw goes up at 03:00 CET. That's 2am for me. However, you know it won't be until at least half 3 that it goes up. I won't be wasting my time waiting for it!

Saying all of that, we could possibly speculate. One of the songs that has been chosen to perform in the first half will do well - yes at least one will. That's not because of the songs in it, it's just because it would be highly unlikely that the top 10, or even the top 5 will ALL be from the first half. You've got the likes of Germany, Russia, the Netherlands all performing in the first half. But watch out for Moldova. Aliona Moon has a very rhythmic song which will stand out because of the amazing dress. I know that I am biased for Moldova, but I wouldn't rule them out of doing fairly well.

But I think we can all agree the second half will be where the winner is. Barring Hungary and Romania (and probably Ireland although I don't like to say it) have a chance. That is 10 countries which have the possibility of doing very well; Azerbaijan, Greece, Georgia, Iceland, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Ukraine, the UK, and then the fan favourite Denmark. How will SVT position them? Half of them are ballads, the other half are upbeat. That should make it easier for SVT to place, but how will this decision ever be easy? And with Romania having such a different song with a staging that really stands out, can they be this year's shock and upset the party? I think two of those ten will be disappointed, and there will be one country I've forgotten who go on to cause a big upset. Lithuania in the top 10 would just be hilarious!

Where will the former Yugoslavs vote for? They have no cultural companions so perhaps the likes of Italy, Hungary, Romania, Moldova, and even to an extent Greece, will pick up more points than before? Or will FYR Macedonia give their points randomly to the UK like they did in a scoreboard simulator I did earlier today (it completely threw me I won't lie!).

The draw at the end of the day doesn't mean the be all and end all. We have to go back almost 10 years to find a song that won from the first half (2004 - Ukraine - Ruslana - Wild Dances - performed 10th) but it still doesn't really matter. I mean Albania and Russia both had first half performances last year and still made top 5. They weren't even first half - they were early! I mean the only position you don't want is the death position at the end of the day. And in case there are any eurovision phobes out there, the reason 2nd is the death position is because noone has ever won from that position in the entire history of the contest. We've had people who have performed first and won - the Herreys in 1984, Brotherhood of Man in 1976 for example - but never from second position. Whoever gets it, I give you the biggest Good Luck!

And on that note I'm off. GET READY FOR SATURDAY PEOPLE!

Put your money where your mouth is!

I just put a bet on Azerbaijan to win the contest. Farid has the odds of 20-1 and I found that very tempting. Whose your money on? Even if you do think Denmark could win, the odds for Only Teardops are hurrendous. I don't usually do this, but ESCNation has a very interesting report on the best values for Eurovision. Follow this link to see their advice for tonight's semi final. Greece are 10-1 to win their semi final tonight, and that seems very tempting indeed...

Why tonight won't be the Eurovision Shock Contest.

5 hours to go!

Who was shocked or surprised by the results of the first semi final? I'm still reading about the impact of no former Yugoslav countries making it and quite frankly it's getting quite boring. You should read this post because that makes complete sense of it all.

What I learned from the first semi final though is that we shouldn't expect any shocks tonight - just read on to see why.

1 Latvia - this hasn't been a fan favourite and noone is rating it in Malmo. But wasn't everybody saying the exact same about Lithuania? And before we all even went to Malmo, I'm pretty sure everyone had written Belgium off as well. And look what happened - they both qualified! I'm not saying this is certain to qualify, but if the Latvians sneak into the final will you really be that shocked because of what happened on Tuesday?

2 San Marino - undoubtedly San Marino's best ever entry. A Eurofans favourite, a surprise to those non-hardcore fans, and it has some Ralph Siegel magic. Not a shock qualifier.

3 FYR Macedonia - okay this song I think will provide one of the bigger shocks if it qualifies. BUT, Esma and Lozano have great contrasting voices, and Esma is a gimmick herself. Not as much of a shock as first thought.

4 Azerbaijan - Fit Farid with a smooth and sensual song. Going through.

5 Finland - well Krista brings to the stage a completely different energy to Farid and that will pay off. The song is really "pop" and with some crazy costumes and gimmicks this does work. Plus the song is the catchiest of the lot so far - people will remember ding dong when the lines open. OH and let's not forget the kiss. That'll cost and reward points. Won't be a shock if it qualifies, same said for if it doesn't qualify.

6 Malta - Tomorrow follows really well after Finland and there is always a market for this kind of song.

7 Bulgaria - Really won't shock me if this qualifies. Elitsa and Stoyan bring to the table the most unique song in this year's Eurovision Song Contest. And I am including the likes of Montenegro and the Netherlands when I say that. Samo Shampioni is a bit rubbish if we're all honest. But its Elitsa and Stoyan! They took Water to 5th a couple of years ago - yes it was a better song, but just think of the energy they bring to the stage. This performance will completely stand out and so you can't be shocked if this qualifies.

8 Iceland - dreadful but it's Iceland. Always loved the Icelandic entry and think it would be really interesting to go there one day. The song is apparently coming across very well, it'll stand out very nicely after Bulgaria, but it's not that great a song so I won't be shocked if this does qualify, but then because of all the above, won't be shocked if it does qualify.

9 Greece - stand out, bonkers, fun, Greek. Say no more?

10 Israel - Lynda Woodruff will really bring it home for the Israelis. I think more a jury vote than televote, but what does it matter?

11 Armenia - I think the Eurofans have forgotten about this completely. It's a cute little number with a really nice theme. And it's Armenian. You can't be shocked to see Armenia in the final.

12 Hungary - This one is pretty unique. And it seems lots of people like it. If Sound Of Our Hearts can bloody make it then so can Kedvesem.

13 Norway - This song is absolutely TERRIBLE. Eurofans are going weak at the knees and claiming this is the song of the contest, the performance of the contest. Are we listening to the same song? Are we watching the same rehearsals? Am I the only person that HATES this? I grew tired of Denmark, and who isn't growing tired of Denmark?, but this I've never really appreciated and have reached the point of complete detestation. Last year, I was critical of Euphoria because I thought people were getting too blind of what else was in the competition. 2012 was a very strong year, almost on the same par as 2009, but at the end of the day, it's easy to see why Euphoria is such a good song. It is NOT easy to see why I Feed You My Love is good in any way now. This will sail through, unfortunately, but if it doesn't go through, I won't be shocked (unlike every single blogger out there).

14 Albania - now this is better. Okay, it's still not good, but we're nearing the end and a bit of Albanian Rock might come across quite nicely to neighbours.

15 Georgia - ticks all the boxes. The song is really wet (no pun on 'Waterfall' I might add) but I like it and I think a lot of others do. Nobody really loves it so it won't win but with a lot of friends in this semi, I'm sure Georgia will go through. If it doesn't, well it is pretty wet.

16 Switzerland - final rock song of the night. Clear message, nicely done, fans like it, you can't be shocked to see this qualify.

17 Romania - the most memorable of the night because of the scary high notes element. Doesn't need to go last to be remembered, but will people have already chosen their favourite? I won't be shocked it this qualifies because it is something different, but then it is hurrendous so won't be shocked if it doesn't.

SO I hope I have proved my point - no matter who qualifies and who doesn't, we can't truly be shocked by anything this evening. Apart from Petra Mede's hosting, that's pretty shocking. Personally, I'm looking forward to Lynda Woodruff's latest episode on her tour of Sweden (not her performance for Israel). I can't vote because I live in the UK so I urge you to vote San Marino please. COME ON SAN MARINO!

Good luck to all contestants tonight! (even you Margaret).